2026 USC vs 2026 San José State
Hypothetical
94% to win
High confidence — 7 games in — see our accuracy
Hypothetical forecast · SBR sbr-2r
Why this number
How they're built
0–100 percentile · higher is stronger
Compare the whole profile, then explore each dimension.
- 2026 USC Offense · SP+ 2026: 38.5, 94th percentile (2026 season to date)
- 2026 San José State Offense · SP+ 2026: 16.0, 9th percentile (2026 season to date)
- 2026 USC Defense · SP+ 2026: 24.2, 61st percentile (2026 season to date)
- 2026 San José State Defense · SP+ 2026: 27.9, 39th percentile (2026 season to date)
- 2026 USC Special teams · SP+ 2026: 0.1, 50th percentile (2026 season to date)
- 2026 San José State Special teams · SP+ 2026: −0.3, 12th percentile (2026 season to date)
- 2026 USC Recruiting · 2026 signing class: 310.7 pts, 100th percentile (2026 signing class)
- 2026 San José State Recruiting · 2026 signing class: 158.7 pts, 7th percentile (2026 signing class)
- 2026 USC Experience · returning production 2026: 59% returning, 70th percentile (2026 roster)
- 2026 San José State Experience · returning production 2026: 4% returning, 6th percentile (2026 roster)
Offensive production relative to that season’s field. Compare an offense with the opposing defense in the scouting report.
Recruiting and experience add context; the five axes aren't equal weights in the forecast.
The numbers behind the profiles
| Measure | 2026 USC | 2026 San José State |
|---|---|---|
| Offensive / play | 0.3190th percentile | 0.1035th percentile |
| PPA allowed / play | 0.1426th percentile | 0.0555th percentile |
| Points per game | 36.478th percentile7 games | 21.018th percentile6 games |
| per game | 25.142nd percentile7 games | 23.548th percentile6 games |
Programs don't stand still
SP+ percentile among FBS teams, by season. The marked point is each compared season.
Momentum
Talent in, results out
Recruiting-class percentile feeding each roster, compared with its SP+ result.
- Average signing-class percentile, classes 2023–2026
- 93rd percentile
- SP+ percentile, 2026
- 85th percentile
- Average signing-class percentile, classes 2023–2026
- 15th percentile
- SP+ percentile, 2026
- 18th percentile
Campus distance
305 miles apart
There's more to the matchup.
Supporting context, ready when you want it.
In the trenches · both directions
| Matchup | O-line | D-line |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 USC OL vs 2026 San José State DL | 318.6 lbs | 269.6 lbs |
| 2026 San José State OL vs 2026 USC DL | 287.6 lbs | 276.7 lbs |
2026 USC line yards 3.15 · 2026 San José State stuff rate 15.4%
2026 San José State line yards 3.01 · 2026 USC stuff rate 17.2%
Fans swear big lines win games. They're half right — big-line teams do win more, but only because good programs recruit big linemen. Once we account for talent and last season, line size adds nothing to the prediction. Across 11 seasons, no measurable effect on margin.
Roster size is context. It isn't a forecast advantage.
Backtested effect: 0.42 pts at 1σ.
Head-to-head · USC leads 6–0 since 2000
USC has won 6 straight
| Season | Score | Venue |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | USC 42–26 San José State | Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum · USC home |
| 2023 | USC 56–28 San José State | Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum · USC home |
| 2021 | USC 30–7 San José State | Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum · USC home |
| 2009 | USC 56–3 San José State | Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum · USC home |
| 2001 | USC 21–10 San José State | Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum · USC home |
| 2000 | USC 34–24 San José State | USC home |
Coaching & program context
HC
- Lincoln Riley
OC
- Luke Huard
career average +28.1 SP+ offense
Scheme: Power raid (listed on Wikipedia)
Style: Pass-heavy, up-tempo (threw on 49% of its run–pass plays, 74th percentile of 2026 FBS; 70.9 plays a game, 75th percentile)
DC
- Gary Patterson
no career track record on file
Scheme: 4–2–5 (listed on Wikipedia)
HC
- Ken Niumatalolo
OC: no staff data on file
Style: Pass-heavy, average pace (threw on 52% of its run–pass plays, 85th percentile of 2026 FBS; 68.5 plays a game, 59th percentile)
DC: no staff data on file
A new coordinator feels like it should swing a game. Across 11 seasons, the change doesn't move the final margin beyond what the roster already tells us. Shown as context, not a factor in our number.
Run-heavy team meets a defense that can't stop the run — feels like extra points waiting. Across 7 seasons the matchup adds nothing beyond what the two ratings already say; if anything the point estimate leans the other way.
Scouting reports
No upcoming game between these teams is on the schedule.
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