Saturday, October 24

USC

6–1 · AP #19

Wisconsin

4–1

Time TBACamp Randall StadiumMadison, WI

Weather

Forecast available from Friday, October 16.

Weather is not an input to the SBR forecast.

Game forecast

Our forecast for this game posts the Tuesday of game week.

The game in a minute

01 · USC's case

USC's defense leads its matchup in allowed

USC's defense is in the 45th percentile for success rate allowed this season. Wisconsin's offense is in the 24th percentile for success rate.

See the underlying numbers

02 · Wisconsin's answer

Wisconsin's offense leads its matchup in per-play efficiency

Wisconsin's offense is in the 53rd percentile for per play this season. USC's defense is in the 26th percentile for PPA allowed.

See when each team has the ball

03 · What could swing it

No forecast yet

There is no published forecast to cite for this game right now.

See the forecast

When each team has the ball

Offensive efficiency meets defensive efficiency. Percentiles run from 0 to 100.

When USC has the ball

USC offense: 90th
Wisconsin defense: 97th

Show the underlying numbers

USC offensive PPA per play: 0.3190th percentile · #12 nationally
Wisconsin PPA allowed per play: −0.1297th percentile · #5 nationally
USC success rate: 52%95th percentile · #8 nationally
Wisconsin success rate allowed: 35%84th percentile · #23 nationally
USC points per game: 36.478th percentile · #31 nationally
Wisconsin per game: 16.683rd percentile · #24 nationally

PPA and success rate: CFBD, 2026 season to date, garbage time included. Points per game: 2026 games so far. Percentiles and ranks are among 2026 teams.

USC offense · Last 7 games · garbage time excluded

Explosiveness: 1.22
Rush success: 46.5%

Wisconsin defense · 4 of the last 5 games · garbage time excluded

Explosiveness allowed: 1.03
Rush success allowed: 36.2%

When Wisconsin has the ball

Wisconsin offense: 53rd
USC defense: 26th

Show the underlying numbers

Wisconsin offensive PPA per play: 0.1753rd percentile · #61 nationally
USC PPA allowed per play: 0.1426th percentile · #101 nationally
Wisconsin success rate: 40%24th percentile · #105 nationally
USC success rate allowed: 41%45th percentile · #77 nationally
Wisconsin points per game: 31.658th percentile · #58 nationally
USC points allowed per game: 25.142nd percentile · #80 nationally

PPA and success rate: CFBD, 2026 season to date, garbage time included. Points per game: 2026 games so far. Percentiles and ranks are among 2026 FBS teams.

Wisconsin offense · Last 5 games · garbage time excluded

Explosiveness: 1.53
Rush success: 34.3%

USC defense · Last 7 games · garbage time excluded

Explosiveness allowed: 1.34
Rush success allowed: 39.7%

Defense is oriented so a higher percentile is stronger.

Where they attack.

Follow the direction. Check the production.

Share of charted attemptsDirectional schematic

Offense moving upfield ↑

Select left, middle or right. The paths show direction only; alignment, routes and throw depth are schematic.

Jayden Maiava · 77% of charted pass attempts

Throwing right

Share of charted plays: 39%
Usage: charted in this direction: 61 attempts
Yards / attempt: 10.0; over 59 attempts with a result
Completion rate: 80%; over 59 attempts with a result

156 of 158 have a direction · 2 unknown, excluded · rounded

Charted 6 of 7 games

Efficiency charted in 6 of 7 games

Depth as written in the play-by-play: 140 short · 16 deep · 2 not stated

Who's driving the offense?

The USC offense in 2026

Jayden Maiava

QB · 7 games

Photo: ESPN

152/224 · 68% season

Passing yards: 2,045
Touchdowns: 18
Interceptions: 3

Last game

Penn State · Oct 10, 2026: 21/33, 301 yds, 3 TD, 0 INT

King Miller

RB · 7 games

Photo: ESPN

Carries: 114
Rushing yards: 595
Touchdowns: 4

Last game

Penn State · Oct 10, 2026: 19 carries, 102 yds, 1 TD

Kayden Dixon-Wyatt

WR · 6 games

Photo: ESPN

Receptions: 27
Receiving yards: 400
Touchdowns: 4

Last game

Penn State · Oct 10, 2026: 2 rec, 28 yds, 1 TD

USC player tables

Who is producing

USC player production

2026 evidence · 7 games in this window · 7 with recorded rows in this view

USC — Passing production
Player
Jayden MaiavaQB	7	152 / 224	2,045	9.1	18	3
Jonas WilliamsQB	3	12 / 14	126	9.0	0	1

2 players with recorded rows

Rows are recorded player-game box lines for the games listed above. A missing row is missing data, not proof that a player did not appear, and none of these figures describe targets, snaps, starters or availability.

Wisconsin player tables

Who is producing

Wisconsin player production

2026 evidence · 5 games in this window · 5 with recorded rows in this view

Wisconsin — Passing production
Player
Colton JosephQB	5	81 / 143	1,132	7.9	10	5

1 players with recorded rows

In the trenches

USC's line averages 318.6 lbs against Wisconsin's 302.4 lbs front — an edge of 16.2 lbs a man.

Typical FBS gap: 31.7 lbs.

Roster size is context. It isn't a forecast advantage.

Matchup	O-line	D-line
USC OLUSC OL vs Wisconsin DL	318.6 lbs	302.4 lbs
Wisconsin OLWisconsin OL vs USC DL	317.7 lbs	276.7 lbs

USC
Wisconsin

Average listed roster weight, 2026 · bars run from 0 to 350 lbs.

How these teams stack up

2026 season. Percentiles and ranks are among 2026 FBS teams.

USC

Points per game: 36.4#31 nationally · 78th percentile · 7 games
Points allowed per game: 25.1#80 nationally · 42nd percentile · 7 games
Returning production: 59% of 2025 PPA returns · 70th percentile
Upperclassmen: 31% · 127 of 127 with a class year

Wisconsin

Points per game: 31.6#58 nationally · 58th percentile · 5 games
Points allowed per game: 16.6#24 nationally · 83rd percentile · 5 games
Returning production: 31% of 2025 PPA returns · 36th percentile
Upperclassmen: 39% · 119 of 119 with a class year

Recruiting

USC

2026 signing class · #1 nationally: 100th percentile · 310.7 pts
4-year recruiting composite (Saturday Bias) · classes 2023–2026 · #7 nationally: 96th percentile · 1.86 (0 is the FBS average)
Roster talent (CFBD Team Talent) · 2026 · #9 nationally: 94th percentile · 899.0

Wisconsin

2026 signing class · #78 nationally: 44th percentile · 186.8 pts
4-year recruiting composite (Saturday Bias) · classes 2023–2026 · #47 nationally: 66th percentile · 0.33 (0 is the FBS average)
Roster talent (CFBD Team Talent) · 2026 · #30 nationally: 79th percentile · 767.7

Recruited classes aren't the roster that takes the field.

Season percentile profiles

Season percentiles · outward is stronger · recruiting and experience are context, not forecast weights

USC: solid line, circles · Wisconsin: dashed line, squares

USC

Offense · 2026: 38.5 · 94th percentile; CFBD, 2026 season to date
Defense · SP+ 2026: 24.2 · 61st percentile; CFBD, 2026 season to date
Special teams · SP+ 2026: 0.1 · 50th percentile; CFBD, 2026 season to date
Recruiting · 2026 signing class: 310.7 pts · 100th percentile; CFBD, 2026 signing class
Experience · returning production 2026: 59% returning · 70th percentile; CFBD, 2026 roster

Wisconsin

Offense · SP+ 2026: 26.3 · 45th percentile; CFBD, 2026 season to date
Defense · SP+ 2026: 15.8 · 91st percentile; CFBD, 2026 season to date
Special teams · SP+ 2026: 0.1 · 50th percentile; CFBD, 2026 season to date
Recruiting · 2026 signing class: 186.8 pts · 44th percentile; CFBD, 2026 signing class
Experience · returning production 2026: 31% returning · 36th percentile; CFBD, 2026 roster

USC's recent games

Most recent completed 2026 games · play stats exclude garbage time

Oct 10 · 64 recorded plays
at Penn State
W 31–23
50%
Success rate
0.44
PPA / play
Oct 3 · 71 recorded plays
vs Washington
W 25–21
44%
Success rate
0.18
PPA / play
Sep 26 · 76 recorded plays
vs Oregon
L 27–41
43%
Success rate
0.27
PPA / play

The coaching staff

USC

Head coach: Lincoln Riley
career +18.3 SP+ overall
Photo: Bobak Ha'Eri, CC BY 3.0
Offensive coordinator: Luke Huard
career +28.1 SP+ offense
Defensive coordinator: Gary Patterson
no career rating on file
Photo: Bobak Ha'Eri, CC BY 3.0

Wisconsin

Head coach: Luke Fickell
career +8.2 SP+ overall
Photo: Apyanac, CC BY-SA 4.0
Offensive coordinator: Jeff Grimes
career +29.8 SP+ offense
Defensive coordinator: Mike Tressel
career +17.4 SP+ defense

Head-to-head

Series tied 1–1 since 2000

2024 · USC 38, Wisconsin 21
Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum
2015 · Wisconsin 23, USC 21
Neutral site · Qualcomm Stadium

Evidence and sources

Evidence window: 2026 season to date

USC: 7 games
Wisconsin: 5 games

The game in a minute: 2026 season to date, garbage time included · compared with 2026 FBS teams · CFBD
When each team has the ball: 2026 season to date, garbage time included · compared with 2026 FBS teams · CFBD
Where they attack: 2026 season to date, garbage time included, regular season only · per team, not ranked · NCAA
Featured players: 2026 season to date, garbage time included · per team, not ranked · CFBD
In the trenches: 2026 roster snapshot · compared with 2026 FBS teams · CFBD
Team profiles: 2026 season to date · compared with 2026 FBS teams · CFBD
Recent games: 2026 recent games, garbage time excluded · this game · CFBD
Coaching staff: 2026 coaching staff · per team, not ranked · CFBD (head coaches, SP+) and Wikipedia (coordinators)
Head-to-head: completed meetings since 2000 · games between these two programs · CFBD

Compare these teams

Game forecast

The game in a minute

USC's defense leads its matchup in success rate allowed

Wisconsin's offense leads its matchup in per-play efficiency

No forecast yet

When each team has the ball

When USC has the ball

USC offense · Last 7 games · garbage time excluded

Wisconsin defense · 4 of the last 5 games · garbage time excluded

When Wisconsin has the ball

Wisconsin offense · Last 5 games · garbage time excluded

USC defense · Last 7 games · garbage time excluded

Where they attack.

Throwing right

Who's driving the offense?

Jayden Maiava

King Miller

Kayden Dixon-Wyatt

USC player production

Wisconsin player production

In the trenches

How these teams stack up

USC

Wisconsin

Recruiting

USC

Wisconsin

Season percentile profiles

USC

Wisconsin

USC's recent games

at Penn State

vs Washington

vs Oregon

The coaching staff

USC

Wisconsin

Head-to-head

Evidence and sources

USC's defense leads its matchup in allowed