DEL
MTSU50%
FIU
JXST51%
KENN52%
MOST
WKU50%
SHSU
GASO50%
ODU
ECU66%
UAB
CSU
TXST74%
MEM65%
TULN
WASH57%
PUR
APP
CCU56%
KU
KSU54%
BALL
BGSU75%The matchups. The numbers. The takes worth checking. See Saturday from every side.
Pick your team for your next matchup and scouting report.
A matchup to watch
Mississippi State
LSUSat, Oct 17, 12:00 PM ET
Tiger Stadium (LA)
Check your bias
Your estimate
Choose your team for your next matchup, scouting report, and weekly insights.
Week 7 · October 17, 2026
Big claims. Old rivalries. A few numbers that might change your mind.
Upset watch
Sat, Oct 17, 12:00 PM ET
75%
Model win probability for LSU
1 mark = 1 percentage point of model probability
AP poll: Mississippi State #16 · LSU #22
The poll ranks Mississippi State higher; the model favors LSU.
Ranked showdown
Sat, Oct 17, 12:00 PM ET
Ohio State, ranked #4
Indiana, ranked #6
Both inside the model's top 10.
Our model
In the trenches
Sat, Oct 17, 1:00 PM ET
+60.3lb per player
Massachusetts OL roster vs. Buffalo DL roster, average weight per player
This matchup60.3 lb
Typical FBS gap31.7 lb
0Weight gap · lb per player75
28.6 lb above the typical FBS gap.
Roster averages, not starters. Size is one part of a matchup, not a result.
Typical FBS gap: one team's OL roster average minus another team's DL roster average, averaged across every pairing of FBS teams.
Change the question. See who rises.
Strength of record: the chance that the SBR #25 team would match or beat this record against this schedule. #1 = hardest record to match.
SBR sbr-2r · strength of record
National positions · 2026
Oregon: #11 in our model. Unranked in the AP poll.Poll vs. model · 2026, entering week 7SBR sbr-2r · how the numbers are doing
Retrospective · games already played
This means nothing. We checked.
Each stat below is drawn against the number it would show if nothing were going on. Most of them land on it.
Program against program, 2026 season.
Noah Kim · Eastern Michigan · QB
Threw right 40.5% of the time. An even split would say 33%.
Nothing would be 33.3%·7.1 points above
153-249, 1,464 yds, 9 TD-4 INT through week 6 of 2026.
215 passes with a direction, 2026.
Featured passers threw at least 200 passes with a direction in one season.