2026 USC vs 2026 San José State

Hypothetical

USC by 24.4

96% to win

High confidence — 7 games in — see our accuracy

Hypothetical forecast · SBR sbr-2r

Why this number

USCPreseason baseline +19.1In-season results −1.1

San José StatePreseason baseline −8.7In-season results +2.3

Neutral site

How they're built

0–100 percentile · higher is stronger

Compare the whole profile, then explore each dimension.

Offensive production relative to that season’s field. Compare an offense with the opposing defense in the scouting report.

Recruiting and experience add context; the five axes aren't equal weights in the forecast.

The numbers behind the profiles

Measure	2026 USC	2026 San José State
Offensive / play	0.3190th percentile	0.1035th percentile
PPA allowed / play	0.1426th percentile	0.0555th percentile
Points per game	36.478th percentile7 games	21.018th percentile6 games
per game	25.142nd percentile7 games	23.548th percentile6 games

Programs don't stand still

SP+ percentile among FBS teams, by season. The marked point is each compared season.

2026 USC2026 San José State

Momentum

USC→ steady (+2 pctl over 3 seasons)

San José State↘ falling (−14 pctl over 3 seasons)

Talent in, results out

Recruiting-class percentile feeding each roster, compared with its SP+ result.

2026 USC

Average signing-class percentile, classes 2023–2026: 93rd percentile
SP+ percentile, 2026: 85th percentile

Matching its talent (−8)

2026 San José State

Average signing-class percentile, classes 2023–2026: 15th percentile
SP+ percentile, 2026: 18th percentile

Matching its talent (+3)

Campus distance

305 miles apart

There's more to the matchup.

Supporting context, ready when you want it.

In the trenches · both directions

Matchup	O-line	D-line
2026 USC OL vs 2026 San José State DL	318.6 lbs	269.6 lbs
2026 San José State OL vs 2026 USC DL	287.6 lbs	276.7 lbs

2026 USC line yards 3.15 · 2026 San José State stuff rate 15.4%

2026 San José State line yards 3.01 · 2026 USC stuff rate 17.2%

Fans swear big lines win games. They're half right — big-line teams do win more, but only because good programs recruit big linemen. Once we account for talent and last season, line size adds nothing to the prediction. Across 11 seasons, no measurable effect on margin.

Roster size is context. It isn't a forecast advantage.

Backtested effect: 0.42 pts at 1σ.

Head-to-head · USC leads 6–0 since 2000

USC has won 6 straight

Season	Score	Venue
2026	USC 42–26 San José State	Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum · USC home
2023	USC 56–28 San José State	Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum · USC home
2021	USC 30–7 San José State	Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum · USC home
2009	USC 56–3 San José State	Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum · USC home
2001	USC 21–10 San José State	Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum · USC home
2000	USC 34–24 San José State	USC home

Coaching & program context

2026 USC

Lincoln Riley

Luke Huard

career average +28.1 SP+ offense

Scheme: Power raid (listed on Wikipedia)

Style: Pass-heavy, up-tempo (threw on 49% of its run–pass plays, 74th percentile of 2026 FBS; 70.9 plays a game, 75th percentile)

Gary Patterson

no career track record on file

Scheme: 4–2–5 (listed on Wikipedia)

2026 San José State

Ken Niumatalolo

OC: no staff data on file

Style: Pass-heavy, average pace (threw on 52% of its run–pass plays, 85th percentile of 2026 FBS; 68.5 plays a game, 59th percentile)

DC: no staff data on file

A new coordinator feels like it should swing a game. Across 11 seasons, the change doesn't move the final margin beyond what the roster already tells us. Shown as context, not a factor in our number.

Run-heavy team meets a defense that can't stop the run — feels like extra points waiting. Across 7 seasons the matchup adds nothing beyond what the two ratings already say; if anything the point estimate leans the other way.