2026 USC vs 2026 Fresno State

Hypothetical

USC by 16.6

88% to win

High confidence — 7 games in — see our accuracy

Hypothetical forecast · SBR sbr-2r

Why this number

USCPreseason baseline +19.1In-season results −1.1

Fresno StateIn-season results +4.7Preseason baseline −0.7

USC home field +2.5

How they're built

0–100 percentile · higher is stronger

Compare the whole profile, then explore each dimension.

Offensive production relative to that season’s field. Compare an offense with the opposing defense in the scouting report.

Recruiting and experience add context; the five axes aren't equal weights in the forecast.

The numbers behind the profiles

Measure	2026 USC	2026 Fresno State
Offensive / play	0.3190th percentile	0.1446th percentile
PPA allowed / play	0.1426th percentile	0.0262nd percentile
Points per game	36.478th percentile7 games	28.347th percentile6 games
per game	25.142nd percentile7 games	20.069th percentile6 games

Programs don't stand still

SP+ percentile among FBS teams, by season. The marked point is each compared season.

2026 USC2026 Fresno State

Momentum

USC→ steady (+2 pctl over 3 seasons)

Fresno State↗ rising (+22 pctl over 3 seasons)

Talent in, results out

Recruiting-class percentile feeding each roster, compared with its SP+ result.

2026 USC

Average signing-class percentile, classes 2023–2026: 93rd percentile
SP+ percentile, 2026: 85th percentile

Matching its talent (−8)

2026 Fresno State

Average signing-class percentile, classes 2023–2026: 37th percentile
SP+ percentile, 2026: 58th percentile

Outperforming its talent (+21)

Campus distance

210 miles apart

There's more to the matchup.

Supporting context, ready when you want it.

In the trenches · both directions

Matchup	O-line	D-line
2026 USC OL vs 2026 Fresno State DL	318.6 lbs	268.9 lbs
2026 Fresno State OL vs 2026 USC DL	305.0 lbs	276.7 lbs

2026 USC line yards 3.15 · 2026 Fresno State stuff rate 17.8%

2026 Fresno State line yards 2.58 · 2026 USC stuff rate 17.2%

Fans swear big lines win games. They're half right — big-line teams do win more, but only because good programs recruit big linemen. Once we account for talent and last season, line size adds nothing to the prediction. Across 11 seasons, no measurable effect on margin.

Roster size is context. It isn't a forecast advantage.

Backtested effect: 0.42 pts at 1σ.

Head-to-head · USC leads 6–0 since 2000

USC has won 6 straight

Season	Score	Venue
2026	USC 39–0 Fresno State	Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum · USC home
2022	USC 45–17 Fresno State	Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum · USC home
2019	USC 31–23 Fresno State	Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum · USC home
2014	USC 52–13 Fresno State	Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum · USC home
2013bowl/playoff	USC 45–20 Fresno State	Neutral site
2005	USC 50–42 Fresno State	Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum · USC home

Coaching & program context

2026 USC

Lincoln Riley

Luke Huard

career average +28.1 SP+ offense

Scheme: Power raid (listed on Wikipedia)

Style: Pass-heavy, up-tempo (threw on 49% of its run–pass plays, 74th percentile of 2026 FBS; 70.9 plays a game, 75th percentile)

Gary Patterson

no career track record on file

Scheme: 4–2–5 (listed on Wikipedia)

2026 Fresno State

Matt Entz

Josh Davis

career average +23.0 SP+ offense

Scheme: Pistol (listed on Wikipedia)

Style: Pass-heavy, grind-it-out (threw on 49% of its run–pass plays, 67th percentile of 2026 FBS; 61.3 plays a game, 10th percentile)

Adam Breske (co-DC)
Nick Benedetto

career average +27.5 SP+ defense

Scheme: 4–2–5 (listed on Wikipedia)

A new coordinator feels like it should swing a game. Across 11 seasons, the change doesn't move the final margin beyond what the roster already tells us. Shown as context, not a factor in our number.

Run-heavy team meets a defense that can't stop the run — feels like extra points waiting. Across 7 seasons the matchup adds nothing beyond what the two ratings already say; if anything the point estimate leans the other way.