Saturday, October 17
Compare these teams
4–2
at
San Diego State
2–4
10:30 PM ET7:30 PM PTSnapdragon StadiumSan Diego, CA
Clear79°FN 7 mphGusts 15 mphPrecip 0%
At kickoff · 7:30 PM PT · Updated 12:09 PM PT · National Weather Service
San Diego · local time (PT)
Kickoff hour
Clear79°FN 7 mphGusts 15 mphPrecip 0%
Weather is not an input to the SBR forecast.
67%
Fresno State win probability
San Diego State 33%
Fresno State by 6.4
Projected margin
Margin uncertainty ±14.1 points
Published forecast · SBR sbr-2r · Model track record
01 · Fresno State's case
Fresno State's defense is in the 62nd percentile for allowed per play this season. San Diego State's offense is in the 1st percentile for PPA per play.
See when each team has the ball02 · San Diego State's answer
In every matchup we can rate this season, the San Diego State unit ranks well below the Fresno State unit it faces.
See when each team has the ball03 · What could swing it
The model gives Fresno State a 67% chance to win and predicts Fresno State by 6.4 points. That margin has an uncertainty of ±14.1 points.
See the forecastOffensive efficiency meets defensive efficiency. Percentiles run from 0 to 100.
PPA and success rate: CFBD, 2026 season to date, garbage time included. Points per game: 2026 games so far. Percentiles and ranks are among 2026 teams.
PPA and success rate: CFBD, 2026 season to date, garbage time included. Points per game: 2026 games so far. Percentiles and ranks are among 2026 FBS teams.
Defense is oriented so a higher percentile is stronger.
Follow the direction. Check the production.
Offense moving upfield ↑
Jayden Mandal · 74% of charted pass attempts
105 of 106 have a direction · 1 unknown, excluded · rounded
Charted 5 of 6 games
Efficiency charted in 5 of 6 games
Depth as written in the play-by-play: 94 short · 11 deep · 1 not stated
What to watch
Most charted attempts go right (52%). Middle gives the most yards per attempt: 7.8 over 15 attempts with a result.
The Fresno State offense in 2026
QB · 6 games
Photo: ESPN
110/170 · 65% season
Last game
Boise State · Oct 10, 2026: 19/33, 218 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT
RB · 6 games
Photo: ESPN
Last game
Boise State · Oct 10, 2026: 4 carries, 31 yds, 0 TD
WR · 5 games
Photo: ESPN
Last game
Boise State · Oct 10, 2026: 3 rec, 53 yds, 0 TD
Who is producing
2026 evidence · 6 games in this window · 6 with recorded rows in this view
Sorted by Completions and attempts, highest first
| Player | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jayden MandalQB | 6 | 110 / 170 | 1,252 | 7.4 | 8 | 1 |
| Khristian MartinQB | 2 | 3 / 4 | 71 | 17.8 | 1 | 0 |
| Jordan Malau'uluWR | 1 | 1 / 1 | 21 | 21.0 | 0 | 0 |
3 players with recorded rows
Rows are recorded player-game box lines for the games listed above. A missing row is missing data, not proof that a player did not appear, and none of these figures describe targets, snaps, starters or availability.
Who is producing
2026 evidence · 6 games in this window · 6 with recorded rows in this view
Sorted by Completions and attempts, highest first
| Player | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jayden DenegalQB | 6 | 75 / 140 | 784 | 5.6 | 6 | 5 |
| Draiden TrudeauQB | 3 | 8 / 14 | 66 | 4.7 | 1 | 1 |
| Stone SaundersQB | 1 | 2 / 4 | 20 | 5.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jordan NapierWR | 1 | 1 / 1 | −11 | −11.0 | 0 | 0 |
4 players with recorded rows
Rows are recorded player-game box lines for the games listed above. A missing row is missing data, not proof that a player did not appear, and none of these figures describe targets, snaps, starters or availability.
Fresno State's line averages 305.0 lbs against San Diego State's 268.2 lbs front — an edge of 36.8 lbs a man.
Typical FBS gap: 31.7 lbs.
Roster size is context. It isn't a forecast advantage.
| Matchup | O-line | D-line |
|---|---|---|
| Fresno State OLFresno State OL vs San Diego State DL | 305.0 lbs | 268.2 lbs |
| San Diego State OLSan Diego State OL vs Fresno State DL | 317.6 lbs | 268.9 lbs |
Average listed roster weight, 2026 · bars run from 0 to 350 lbs.
2026 season. Percentiles and ranks are among 2026 FBS teams.
Recruited classes aren't the roster that takes the field.
Season percentiles · outward is stronger · recruiting and experience are context, not forecast weights
Fresno State: solid line, circles · San Diego State: dashed line, squares
Most recent completed 2026 games · play stats exclude garbage time
Oct 10 · 51 recorded plays
L 31–38
49%
Success rate
0.36
PPA / play
Oct 3 · 68 recorded plays
W 26–6
41%
Success rate
0.08
PPA / play
Sep 26 · 70 recorded plays
W 38–24
43%
Success rate
0.24
PPA / play
Josh Davis
career +23.0 SP+ offense
Adam Breske
Co-defensive coordinator · career +27.5 SP+ defense
Nick Benedetto
career +27.5 SP+ defense
Sean Lewis
career −9.5 SP+ overall
Matt Johnson
career +8.2 SP+ offense
Demetrius Sumler
no career rating on file
2025 · San Diego State 23, Fresno State 0
Valley Children's Stadium
2023 · San Diego State 33, Fresno State 18
Snapdragon Stadium
2022 · Fresno State 32, San Diego State 28
Valley Children's Stadium
2021 · Fresno State 30, San Diego State 20
Qualcomm Stadium
2019 · San Diego State 17, Fresno State 7
Qualcomm Stadium
2018 · Fresno State 23, San Diego State 14
Valley Children's Stadium
2017 · Fresno State 27, San Diego State 3
Qualcomm Stadium
2016 · San Diego State 17, Fresno State 3
Valley Children's Stadium
2015 · San Diego State 21, Fresno State 7
Qualcomm Stadium
2014 · Fresno State 24, San Diego State 13
Valley Children's Stadium
2013 · Fresno State 35, San Diego State 28
Qualcomm Stadium
2012 · Fresno State 52, San Diego State 40
Valley Children's Stadium
2011 · San Diego State 35, Fresno State 28
Qualcomm Stadium
2002 · Fresno State 16, San Diego State 14
Valley Children's Stadium
Evidence window: 2026 season to date