2026 Tulsa vs 2026 Oklahoma State
Hypothetical
65% to win
High confidence — 5 games in — see our accuracy
Hypothetical forecast · SBR sbr-2r
Why this number
How they're built
0–100 percentile · higher is stronger
Compare the whole profile, then explore each dimension.
- 2026 Tulsa Offense · SP+ 2026: 22.9, 31st percentile (2026 season to date)
- 2026 Oklahoma State Offense · SP+ 2026: 34.5, 84th percentile (2026 season to date)
- 2026 Tulsa Defense · SP+ 2026: 28.1, 36th percentile (2026 season to date)
- 2026 Oklahoma State Defense · SP+ 2026: 21.5, 74th percentile (2026 season to date)
- 2026 Tulsa Special teams · SP+ 2026: 0.1, 50th percentile (2026 season to date)
- 2026 Oklahoma State Special teams · SP+ 2026: 0.3, 80th percentile (2026 season to date)
- 2026 Tulsa Recruiting · 2026 signing class: 179.4 pts, 33rd percentile (2026 signing class)
- 2026 Oklahoma State Recruiting · 2026 signing class: 190.3 pts, 50th percentile (2026 signing class)
- 2026 Tulsa Experience · returning production 2026: 41% returning, 53rd percentile (2026 roster)
- 2026 Oklahoma State Experience · returning production 2026: 0% returning, 0th percentile (2026 roster)
Offensive production relative to that season’s field. Compare an offense with the opposing defense in the scouting report.
Recruiting and experience add context; the five axes aren't equal weights in the forecast.
The numbers behind the profiles
| Measure | 2026 Tulsa | 2026 Oklahoma State |
|---|---|---|
| Offensive / play | 0.1446th percentile | 0.1753rd percentile |
| PPA allowed / play | 0.0361st percentile | 0.0262nd percentile |
| Points per game | 27.542nd percentile6 games | 38.283rd percentile5 games |
| per game | 23.352nd percentile6 games | 21.464th percentile5 games |
Programs don't stand still
SP+ percentile among FBS teams, by season. The marked point is each compared season.
Momentum
Talent in, results out
Recruiting-class percentile feeding each roster, compared with its SP+ result.
- Average signing-class percentile, classes 2023–2026
- 32nd percentile
- SP+ percentile, 2026
- 33rd percentile
- Average signing-class percentile, classes 2023–2026
- 58th percentile
- SP+ percentile, 2026
- 85th percentile
Campus distance
65 miles apart
There's more to the matchup.
Supporting context, ready when you want it.
In the trenches · both directions
| Matchup | O-line | D-line |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 Tulsa OL vs 2026 Oklahoma State DL | 301.3 lbs | 280.3 lbs |
| 2026 Oklahoma State OL vs 2026 Tulsa DL | 310.3 lbs | 263.8 lbs |
2026 Tulsa line yards 3.20 · 2026 Oklahoma State stuff rate 18.0%
2026 Oklahoma State line yards 3.19 · 2026 Tulsa stuff rate 16.8%
Fans swear big lines win games. They're half right — big-line teams do win more, but only because good programs recruit big linemen. Once we account for talent and last season, line size adds nothing to the prediction. Across 11 seasons, no measurable effect on margin.
Roster size is context. It isn't a forecast advantage.
Backtested effect: 0.42 pts at 1σ.
Head-to-head · Oklahoma State leads 9–2 since 2000
Tulsa has won 2 straight
| Season | Score | Venue |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | Tulsa 24–10 Oklahoma State | Chapman Stadium · Tulsa home |
| 2025 | Tulsa 19–12 Oklahoma State | Boone Pickens Stadium · Oklahoma State home |
| 2024 | Tulsa 10–45 Oklahoma State | Chapman Stadium · Tulsa home |
| 2021 | Tulsa 23–28 Oklahoma State | Boone Pickens Stadium · Oklahoma State home |
| 2020 | Tulsa 7–16 Oklahoma State | Boone Pickens Stadium · Oklahoma State home |
| 2019 | Tulsa 21–40 Oklahoma State | Chapman Stadium · Tulsa home |
| 2017 | Tulsa 24–59 Oklahoma State | Boone Pickens Stadium · Oklahoma State home |
| 2011 | Tulsa 33–59 Oklahoma State | Chapman Stadium · Tulsa home |
| 2010 | Tulsa 28–65 Oklahoma State | Boone Pickens Stadium · Oklahoma State home |
| 2004 | Tulsa 21–38 Oklahoma State | Oklahoma State home |
| 2000 | Tulsa 26–36 Oklahoma State | Tulsa home |
Coaching & program context
HC
- Tre Lamb
OC
- Kevin Barbay
- Ty Darlington (co-OC)
career average +25.0 SP+ offense
Scheme: Spread (listed on Wikipedia)
Style: Pass-heavy, average pace (threw on 49% of its run–pass plays, 68th percentile of 2026 FBS; 67.5 plays a game, 51st percentile)
DC
- Josh Reardon
- Mike Gray (co-DC)
career average +33.1 SP+ defense
Scheme: 4–2–5 (listed on Wikipedia)
HC
- Eric Morris (First season as Oklahoma State's head coach)
OC
- Sean Brophy
no career track record on file
Scheme: Air raid (listed on Wikipedia)
Style: Balanced, up-tempo (threw on 47% of its run–pass plays, 58th percentile of 2026 FBS; 76.6 plays a game, 96th percentile)
DC
- Skyler Cassity
career average +26.2 SP+ defense
Scheme: 3–4 (listed on Wikipedia)
A new coordinator feels like it should swing a game. Across 11 seasons, the change doesn't move the final margin beyond what the roster already tells us. Shown as context, not a factor in our number.
Run-heavy team meets a defense that can't stop the run — feels like extra points waiting. Across 7 seasons the matchup adds nothing beyond what the two ratings already say; if anything the point estimate leans the other way.
Scouting reports
No upcoming game between these teams is on the schedule.
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