Saturday, October 17
Compare these teams
4–1 · AP #18
at
Houston
5–1 · AP #20
7:30 PM ET6:30 PM CTTDECU StadiumHouston, TX
Clear75°FN 9 mphGusts 16 mphPrecip 2%
At kickoff · 6:30 PM CT · Updated 12:16 PM CT · National Weather Service
Houston · local time (CT)
Kickoff hour
Clear75°FN 9 mphGusts 16 mphPrecip 2%
Weather is not an input to the SBR forecast.
15%
Oklahoma State win probability
Houston 85%
Houston by 15.0
Projected margin
Margin uncertainty ±14.3 points
Published forecast · SBR sbr-2r · Model track record
01 · Oklahoma State's case
Oklahoma State's offense is in the 87th percentile for success rate this season. Houston's defense is in the 61st percentile for success rate allowed.
See the underlying numbers02 · Houston's answer
Houston's offense is in the 99th percentile for success rate this season. Oklahoma State's defense is in the 61st percentile for success rate allowed.
See the underlying numbers03 · What could swing it
The model gives Oklahoma State a 15% chance to win and predicts Houston by 15.0 points. That margin has an uncertainty of ±14.3 points.
See the forecastOffensive efficiency meets defensive efficiency. Percentiles run from 0 to 100.
PPA and success rate: CFBD, 2026 season to date, garbage time included. Points per game: 2026 games so far. Percentiles and ranks are among 2026 teams.
PPA and success rate: CFBD, 2026 season to date, garbage time included. Points per game: 2026 games so far. Percentiles and ranks are among 2026 FBS teams.
Defense is oriented so a higher percentile is stronger.
Follow the direction. Check the production.
Offense moving upfield ↑
Drew Mestemaker · 97% of charted pass attempts
163 of 167 have a direction · 4 unknown, excluded · rounded
Charted 5 of 5 games
Efficiency charted in 5 of 5 games
Depth as written in the play-by-play: 139 short · 24 deep · 4 not stated
The Oklahoma State offense in 2026
QB · 5 games
Photo: ESPN
114/169 · 67% season
Last game
UCF · Oct 10, 2026: 19/28, 304 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT
RB · 5 games
Photo: ESPN
Last game
UCF · Oct 10, 2026: 23 carries, 83 yds, 0 TD
WR · 5 games
Last game
UCF · Oct 10, 2026: 5 rec, 52 yds, 1 TD
Who is producing
2026 evidence · 5 games in this window · 5 with recorded rows in this view
Sorted by Completions and attempts, highest first
| Player | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drew MestemakerQB | 5 | 114 / 169 | 1,575 | 9.3 | 13 | 5 |
| Broderick VehrsQB | 1 | 6 / 6 | 37 | 6.2 | 1 | 0 |
2 players with recorded rows
Rows are recorded player-game box lines for the games listed above. A missing row is missing data, not proof that a player did not appear, and none of these figures describe targets, snaps, starters or availability.
Who is producing
2026 evidence · 6 games in this window · 6 with recorded rows in this view
Sorted by Completions and attempts, highest first
| Player | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Conner WeigmanQB | 6 | 110 / 165 | 1,427 | 8.6 | 15 | 1 |
| Keisean HendersonQB | 2 | 6 / 8 | 83 | 10.4 | 2 | 0 |
2 players with recorded rows
Rows are recorded player-game box lines for the games listed above. A missing row is missing data, not proof that a player did not appear, and none of these figures describe targets, snaps, starters or availability.
Oklahoma State's line averages 310.3 lbs against Houston's 294.1 lbs front — an edge of 16.2 lbs a man.
Typical FBS gap: 31.7 lbs.
Roster size is context. It isn't a forecast advantage.
| Matchup | O-line | D-line |
|---|---|---|
| Oklahoma State OLOklahoma State OL vs Houston DL | 310.3 lbs | 294.1 lbs |
| Houston OLHouston OL vs Oklahoma State DL | 306.2 lbs | 280.3 lbs |
Average listed roster weight, 2026 · bars run from 0 to 350 lbs.
2026 season. Percentiles and ranks are among 2026 FBS teams.
Recruited classes aren't the roster that takes the field.
Season percentiles · outward is stronger · recruiting and experience are context, not forecast weights
Oklahoma State: solid line, circles · Houston: dashed line, squares
Most recent completed 2026 games · play stats exclude garbage time
Oct 10 · 63 recorded plays
W 42–28
54%
Success rate
0.22
PPA / play
Sep 26 · 70 recorded plays
W 41–24
56%
Success rate
0.41
PPA / play
Sep 19 · 38 recorded plays
vs FCS
W 59–0
66%
Success rate
0.72
PPA / play
Eric Morris
First season as Oklahoma State's head coach · career +0.9 SP+ overall
Sean Brophy
no career rating on file
Skyler Cassity
career +26.2 SP+ defense
2025 · Houston 39, Oklahoma State 17
Boone Pickens Stadium
2023 · Oklahoma State 43, Houston 30
TDECU Stadium
2009 · Houston 45, Oklahoma State 35
Boone Pickens Stadium
2008 · Oklahoma State 56, Houston 37
Boone Pickens Stadium
2006 · Houston 34, Oklahoma State 25
Robertson Stadium
Evidence window: 2026 season to date