Saturday, October 17

Tulsa

3–3

Rice

1–5

4:30 PM ET3:30 PM CTRice StadiumHouston, TX

Weather

Clear76°FN 10 mphGusts 20 mphPrecip 2%

At kickoff · 3:30 PM CT · Updated 12:16 PM CT · National Weather Service

Hour by hour

Houston · local time (CT)

Kickoff hour

Clear76°FN 10 mphGusts 20 mphPrecip 2%

Weather is not an input to the SBR forecast.

Game forecast

56%

Tulsa win probability

Rice 44%

Tulsa by 2.2

Projected margin

Margin uncertainty ±13.9 points

Published forecast · SBR sbr-2r · Model track record

The game in a minute

01 · Tulsa's case

Tulsa's defense leads its matchup in per-play efficiency

Tulsa's defense is in the 61st percentile for allowed per play this season. Rice's offense is in the 8th percentile for PPA per play.

See when each team has the ball

02 · Rice's answer

Rice's defense leads its matchup in allowed

Rice's defense is in the 53rd percentile for success rate allowed this season. Tulsa's offense is in the 15th percentile for success rate.

See the underlying numbers

03 · What could swing it

Tulsa leans on its top passer

Tulsa's leading passer has thrown 67% of the team's charted attempts this season.

See where they attack

When each team has the ball

Offensive efficiency meets defensive efficiency. Percentiles run from 0 to 100.

When Tulsa has the ball

Tulsa offense: 46th
Rice defense: 36th

Show the underlying numbers

Tulsa offensive PPA per play: 0.1446th percentile · #71 nationally
Rice PPA allowed per play: 0.0936th percentile · #81 nationally
Tulsa success rate: 39%15th percentile · #117 nationally
Rice success rate allowed: 40%53rd percentile · #65 nationally
Tulsa points per game: 27.542nd percentile · #79 nationally
Rice per game: 27.526th percentile · #100 nationally

PPA and success rate: CFBD, 2026 season to date, garbage time included. Points per game: 2026 games so far. Percentiles and ranks are among 2026 teams.

Tulsa offense · Last 6 games · garbage time excluded

Explosiveness: 1.22
Rush success: 41.0%

Rice defense · 5 of the last 6 games · garbage time excluded

Explosiveness allowed: 1.37
Rush success allowed: 43.4%

When Rice has the ball

Rice offense: 8th
Tulsa defense: 61st

Show the underlying numbers

Rice offensive PPA per play: −0.038th percentile · #126 nationally
Tulsa PPA allowed per play: 0.0361st percentile · #54 nationally
Rice success rate: 39%22nd percentile · #108 nationally
Tulsa success rate allowed: 41%45th percentile · #76 nationally
Rice points per game: 17.07th percentile · #127 nationally
Tulsa points allowed per game: 23.352nd percentile · #67 nationally

PPA and success rate: CFBD, 2026 season to date, garbage time included. Points per game: 2026 games so far. Percentiles and ranks are among 2026 FBS teams.

Rice offense · Last 6 games · garbage time excluded

Explosiveness: 1.10
Rush success: 43.6%

Tulsa defense · 5 of the last 6 games · garbage time excluded

Explosiveness allowed: 1.18
Rush success allowed: 41.5%

Defense is oriented so a higher percentile is stronger.

Where they attack.

Follow the direction. Check the production.

Share of charted attemptsDirectional schematic

Offense moving upfield ↑

Select left, middle or right. The paths show direction only; alignment, routes and throw depth are schematic.

Baylor Hayes · 67% of charted pass attempts

Throwing right

Share of charted plays: 36%
Usage: charted in this direction: 45 attempts
Yards / attempt: 6.8; over 45 attempts with a result
Completion rate: 73%; over 45 attempts with a result

124 of 131 have a direction · 7 unknown, excluded · rounded

Charted 6 of 6 games

Efficiency charted in 6 of 6 games

Depth as written in the play-by-play: 106 short · 18 deep · 7 not stated

Who's driving the offense?

The Tulsa offense in 2026

Baylor Hayes

QB · 4 games

Photo: ESPN

78/131 · 60% season

Passing yards: 832
Touchdowns: 5
Interception: 1

Last game

Navy · Oct 10, 2026: 20/35, 268 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT

Damari Alston

RB · 6 games

Photo: ESPN

Carries: 79
Rushing yards: 314
Touchdowns: 5

Last game

Navy · Oct 10, 2026: 11 carries, 22 yds, 0 TD

Oran Singleton Jr.

WR · 6 games

Photo: ESPN

Receptions: 31
Receiving yards: 387
Touchdowns: 3

Last game

Navy · Oct 10, 2026: 5 rec, 81 yds, 1 TD

Tulsa player tables

Who is producing

Tulsa player production

2026 evidence · 6 games in this window · 6 with recorded rows in this view

Tulsa — Passing production
Player
Baylor HayesQB	4	78 / 131	832	6.4	5	1
Dexter Williams IIQB	3	34 / 59	340	5.8	3	0
Oran Singleton Jr.WR	2	1 / 3	10	3.3	1	0
Max TulenP	1	0 / 1	0	0.0	0	0

4 players with recorded rows

Rows are recorded player-game box lines for the games listed above. A missing row is missing data, not proof that a player did not appear, and none of these figures describe targets, snaps, starters or availability.

Rice player tables

Who is producing

Rice player production

2026 evidence · 6 games in this window · 6 with recorded rows in this view

Rice — Passing production
Player
Jacurri BrownQB	6	37 / 76	424	5.6	2	2
Gael OchoaQB	2	4 / 9	65	7.2	0	0

2 players with recorded rows

In the trenches

Tulsa's line averages 301.3 lbs against Rice's 265.6 lbs front — an edge of 35.7 lbs a man.

Typical FBS gap: 31.7 lbs.

Roster size is context. It isn't a forecast advantage.

Matchup	O-line	D-line
Tulsa OLTulsa OL vs Rice DL	301.3 lbs	265.6 lbs
Rice OLRice OL vs Tulsa DL	307.7 lbs	263.8 lbs

Tulsa
Rice

Average listed roster weight, 2026 · bars run from 0 to 350 lbs.

How these teams stack up

2026 season. Percentiles and ranks are among 2026 FBS teams.

Tulsa

Points per game: 27.5#79 nationally · 42nd percentile · 6 games
Points allowed per game: 23.3#67 nationally · 52nd percentile · 6 games
Returning production: 41% of 2025 PPA returns · 53rd percentile
Upperclassmen: 49% · 111 of 111 with a class year

Rice

Points per game: 17.0#127 nationally · 7th percentile · 6 games
Points allowed per game: 27.5#100 nationally · 26th percentile · 6 games
Returning production: 39% of 2025 PPA returns · 50th percentile
Upperclassmen: 35% · 103 of 103 with a class year

Recruiting

Tulsa

2026 signing class · #93 nationally: 33rd percentile · 179.4 pts
4-year recruiting composite (Saturday Bias) · classes 2023–2026 · #91 nationally: 34th percentile · −0.47 (0 is the FBS average)
Roster talent (CFBD Team Talent) · 2026 · #84 nationally: 39th percentile · 622.8

Rice

2026 signing class · #104 nationally: 25th percentile · 176.0 pts
4-year recruiting composite (Saturday Bias) · classes 2023–2026 · #108 nationally: 22nd percentile · −0.64 (0 is the FBS average)
Roster talent (CFBD Team Talent) · 2026 · #100 nationally: 28th percentile · 589.9

Recruited classes aren't the roster that takes the field.

Season percentile profiles

Season percentiles · outward is stronger · recruiting and experience are context, not forecast weights

Tulsa: solid line, circles · Rice: dashed line, squares

Tulsa

Offense · 2026: 22.9 · 31st percentile; CFBD, 2026 season to date
Defense · SP+ 2026: 28.1 · 36th percentile; CFBD, 2026 season to date
Special teams · SP+ 2026: 0.1 · 50th percentile; CFBD, 2026 season to date
Recruiting · 2026 signing class: 179.4 pts · 33rd percentile; CFBD, 2026 signing class
Experience · returning production 2026: 41% returning · 53rd percentile; CFBD, 2026 roster

Rice

Offense · SP+ 2026: 16.5 · 10th percentile; CFBD, 2026 season to date
Defense · SP+ 2026: 29.8 · 28th percentile; CFBD, 2026 season to date
Special teams · SP+ 2026: −0.1 · 28th percentile; CFBD, 2026 season to date
Recruiting · 2026 signing class: 176.0 pts · 25th percentile; CFBD, 2026 signing class
Experience · returning production 2026: 39% returning · 50th percentile; CFBD, 2026 roster

Tulsa's recent games

Most recent completed 2026 games · play stats exclude garbage time

Oct 10 · 67 recorded plays
at Navy
L 26–34
30%
Success rate
0.17
PPA / play
Oct 1 · 81 recorded plays
vs North Texas
L 44–45
41%
Success rate
0.17
PPA / play
Sep 26 · 47 recorded plays
at Arkansas
L 6–34
32%
Success rate
−0.03
PPA / play

The coaching staff

Tulsa

Head coach: Tre Lamb
career −10.0 SP+ overall
Offensive coordinator: Kevin Barbay
career +25.0 SP+ offense; Ty Darlington
Co-offensive coordinator · career +25.0 SP+ offense
Defensive coordinator: Josh Reardon
career +33.1 SP+ defense; Mike Gray
Co-defensive coordinator · career +33.1 SP+ defense

Rice

Head coach: Scott Abell
career −14.8 SP+ overall
Offensive coordinator: Vince Munch
career +17.7 SP+ offense
Defensive coordinator: Jon Kay
career +33.9 SP+ defense

Head-to-head

Tulsa leads 10–5 since 2000

2023 · Rice 42, Tulsa 10
Chapman Stadium
2013 · Rice 30, Tulsa 27
Chapman Stadium
2012 · Tulsa 28, Rice 24
Chapman Stadium
2011 · Tulsa 38, Rice 20
Rice Stadium
2010 · Tulsa 64, Rice 27
Chapman Stadium
2009 · Tulsa 27, Rice 10
Rice Stadium
2008 · Tulsa 63, Rice 28
Chapman Stadium
2007 · Tulsa 48, Rice 43
Rice Stadium
2006 · Rice 41, Tulsa 38
2005 · Tulsa 41, Rice 21
Rice Stadium
2004 · Tulsa 39, Rice 22
2003 · Tulsa 31, Rice 28
Rice Stadium
2002 · Rice 33, Tulsa 18
2001 · Rice 59, Tulsa 32
Rice Stadium
2000 · Tulsa 23, Rice 16

Evidence and sources

Evidence window: 2026 season to date

Tulsa: 6 games
Rice: 6 games

Forecast: 2026 game forecast · this game · Saturday Bias
Weather: 2026 game forecast · this game · NWS
The game in a minute: 2026 season to date, garbage time included · compared with 2026 FBS teams · CFBD
When each team has the ball: 2026 season to date, garbage time included · compared with 2026 FBS teams · CFBD
Where they attack: 2026 season to date, garbage time included, regular season only · per team, not ranked · NCAA
Featured players: 2026 season to date, garbage time included · per team, not ranked · CFBD
In the trenches: 2026 roster snapshot · compared with 2026 FBS teams · CFBD
Team profiles: 2026 season to date · compared with 2026 FBS teams · CFBD
Recent games: 2026 recent games, garbage time excluded · this game · CFBD
Coaching staff: 2026 coaching staff · per team, not ranked · CFBD (head coaches, SP+) and Wikipedia (coordinators)
Head-to-head: completed meetings since 2000 · games between these two programs · CFBD

Compare these teams

Game forecast

The game in a minute

Tulsa's defense leads its matchup in per-play efficiency

Rice's defense leads its matchup in success rate allowed

Tulsa leans on its top passer

When each team has the ball

When Tulsa has the ball

Tulsa offense · Last 6 games · garbage time excluded

Rice defense · 5 of the last 6 games · garbage time excluded

When Rice has the ball

Rice offense · Last 6 games · garbage time excluded

Tulsa defense · 5 of the last 6 games · garbage time excluded

Where they attack.

Throwing right

Who's driving the offense?

Baylor Hayes

Damari Alston

Oran Singleton Jr.

Tulsa player production

Rice player production

In the trenches

How these teams stack up

Tulsa

Rice

Recruiting

Tulsa

Rice

Season percentile profiles

Tulsa

Rice

Tulsa's recent games

at Navy

vs North Texas

at Arkansas

The coaching staff

Tulsa

Rice

Head-to-head

Evidence and sources

Rice's defense leads its matchup in allowed