2026 Tulane vs 2026 Memphis
Hypothetical
76% to win
High confidence — 5 games in — see our accuracy
Hypothetical forecast · SBR sbr-2r
Why this number
How they're built
0–100 percentile · higher is stronger
Compare the whole profile, then explore each dimension.
- 2026 Tulane Offense · SP+ 2026: 18.8, 17th percentile (2026 season to date)
- 2026 Memphis Offense · SP+ 2026: 34.1, 81st percentile (2026 season to date)
- 2026 Tulane Defense · SP+ 2026: 26.7, 42nd percentile (2026 season to date)
- 2026 Memphis Defense · SP+ 2026: 26.6, 44th percentile (2026 season to date)
- 2026 Tulane Special teams · SP+ 2026: 0.3, 80th percentile (2026 season to date)
- 2026 Memphis Special teams · SP+ 2026: 0.0, 37th percentile (2026 season to date)
- 2026 Tulane Recruiting · 2026 signing class: 195.1 pts, 54th percentile (2026 signing class)
- 2026 Memphis Recruiting · 2026 signing class: 189.2 pts, 48th percentile (2026 signing class)
- 2026 Tulane Experience · returning production 2026: 21% returning, 27th percentile (2026 roster)
- 2026 Memphis Experience · returning production 2026: 6% returning, 7th percentile (2026 roster)
Offensive production relative to that season’s field. Compare an offense with the opposing defense in the scouting report.
Recruiting and experience add context; the five axes aren't equal weights in the forecast.
The numbers behind the profiles
| Measure | 2026 Tulane | 2026 Memphis |
|---|---|---|
| Offensive / play | 0.0727th percentile | 0.2883rd percentile |
| PPA allowed / play | 0.1718th percentile | 0.0648th percentile |
| Points per game | 18.410th percentile5 games | 38.584th percentile6 games |
| per game | 22.654th percentile5 games | 20.866th percentile6 games |
Programs don't stand still
SP+ percentile among FBS teams, by season. The marked point is each compared season.
Momentum
Talent in, results out
Recruiting-class percentile feeding each roster, compared with its SP+ result.
- Average signing-class percentile, classes 2023–2026
- 50th percentile
- SP+ percentile, 2026
- 26th percentile
- Average signing-class percentile, classes 2023–2026
- 52nd percentile
- SP+ percentile, 2026
- 66th percentile
Campus distance
360 miles apart
There's more to the matchup.
Supporting context, ready when you want it.
In the trenches · both directions
| Matchup | O-line | D-line |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 Tulane OL vs 2026 Memphis DL | 301.6 lbs | 275.4 lbs |
| 2026 Memphis OL vs 2026 Tulane DL | 307.5 lbs | 275.4 lbs |
2026 Tulane line yards 2.63 · 2026 Memphis stuff rate 14.5%
2026 Memphis line yards 3.54 · 2026 Tulane stuff rate 14.2%
Fans swear big lines win games. They're half right — big-line teams do win more, but only because good programs recruit big linemen. Once we account for talent and last season, line size adds nothing to the prediction. Across 11 seasons, no measurable effect on margin.
Roster size is context. It isn't a forecast advantage.
Backtested effect: 0.42 pts at 1σ.
Head-to-head · Memphis leads 14–6 since 2000
Tulane has won 1 straight
| Season | Score | Venue |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 | Tulane 38–32 Memphis | Simmons Bank Liberty Stadium · Memphis home |
| 2024 | Tulane 24–34 Memphis | Yulman Stadium · Tulane home |
| 2023 | Tulane 31–21 Memphis | Simmons Bank Liberty Stadium · Memphis home |
| 2022 | Tulane 38–28 Memphis | Yulman Stadium · Tulane home |
| 2021 | Tulane 28–33 Memphis | Simmons Bank Liberty Stadium · Memphis home |
| 2020 | Tulane 35–21 Memphis | Yulman Stadium · Tulane home |
| 2019 | Tulane 17–47 Memphis | Simmons Bank Liberty Stadium · Memphis home |
| 2018 | Tulane 40–24 Memphis | Yulman Stadium · Tulane home |
| 2017 | Tulane 26–56 Memphis | Simmons Bank Liberty Stadium · Memphis home |
| 2016 | Tulane 14–24 Memphis | Yulman Stadium · Tulane home |
| 2015 | Tulane 13–41 Memphis | Simmons Bank Liberty Stadium · Memphis home |
| 2014 | Tulane 7–38 Memphis | Yulman Stadium · Tulane home |
| 2012 | Tulane 23–37 Memphis | Simmons Bank Liberty Stadium · Memphis home |
| 2011 | Tulane 17–33 Memphis | Caesars Superdome · Tulane home |
| 2008 | Tulane 6–45 Memphis | Simmons Bank Liberty Stadium · Memphis home |
| 2007 | Tulane 27–28 Memphis | Caesars Superdome · Tulane home |
| 2004 | Tulane 24–49 Memphis | Simmons Bank Liberty Stadium · Memphis home |
| 2003 | Tulane 9–41 Memphis | Caesars Superdome · Tulane home |
| 2002 | Tulane 10–38 Memphis | Simmons Bank Liberty Stadium · Memphis home |
| 2000 | Tulane 37–14 Memphis | Tulane home |
Coaching & program context
HC
- Will Hall (First season as Tulane's head coach)
OC
- Russ Callaway
career average +28.1 SP+ offense
Scheme: no scheme listed
Style: Balanced, grind-it-out (threw on 45% of its run–pass plays, 44th percentile of 2026 FBS; 59.4 plays a game, 6th percentile)
DC
- Nate Fuqua (co-DC)
- Tayler Polk
career average +31.8 SP+ defense
Scheme: no scheme listed
HC
- Charles Huff (First season as Memphis's head coach)
OC
- David Weeks (co-OC)
- Kevin Decker
career average +26.8 SP+ offense
Scheme: Veer and shoot (listed on Wikipedia)
Style: Run-heavy, average pace (threw on 38% of its run–pass plays, 15th percentile of 2026 FBS; 68.7 plays a game, 61st percentile)
DC
- Lance Guidry
career average +24.0 SP+ defense
Scheme: 4–2–5 (listed on Wikipedia)
A new coordinator feels like it should swing a game. Across 11 seasons, the change doesn't move the final margin beyond what the roster already tells us. Shown as context, not a factor in our number.
Run-heavy team meets a defense that can't stop the run — feels like extra points waiting. Across 7 seasons the matchup adds nothing beyond what the two ratings already say; if anything the point estimate leans the other way.
Watching the next one?
Memphis at Tulane · October 16, 2026
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