Friday, October 16

Tulane

2–3

Memphis

5–1

7:30 PM ET6:30 PM CTYulman StadiumNew Orleans, LA

Weather

Slight chance of rain82°FNE 2 mphGusts 5 mphPrecip 15%

At kickoff · 6:30 PM CT · Updated 1:57 PM CT · National Weather Service

Hour by hour

New Orleans · local time (CT)

Kickoff hour

Slight chance of rain82°FNE 2 mphGusts 5 mphPrecip 15%

Weather is not an input to the SBR forecast.

Game forecast

35%

Tulane win probability

Memphis 65%

Memphis by 5.5

Projected margin

Margin uncertainty ±14.6 points

Published forecast · SBR sbr-2r · Model track record

The game in a minute

01 · Tulane's case

No clear statistical strength for Tulane yet

In every matchup we can rate this season, the Tulane unit ranks well below the Memphis unit it faces.

See when each team has the ball

02 · Memphis's answer

Memphis's offense leads its matchup in per-play efficiency

Memphis's offense is in the 83rd percentile for per play this season. Tulane's defense is in the 18th percentile for PPA allowed.

See when each team has the ball

03 · What could swing it

The forecast comes with a range

The model gives Tulane a 35% chance to win and predicts Memphis by 5.5 points. That margin has an uncertainty of ±14.6 points.

See the forecast

When each team has the ball

Offensive efficiency meets defensive efficiency. Percentiles run from 0 to 100.

When Tulane has the ball

Tulane offense: 27th
Memphis defense: 48th

Show the underlying numbers

Tulane offensive PPA per play: 0.0727th percentile · #97 nationally
Memphis PPA allowed per play: 0.0648th percentile · #64 nationally
Tulane: 34%4th percentile · #133 nationally
Memphis success rate allowed: 39%55th percentile · #62 nationally
Tulane points per game: 18.410th percentile · #124 nationally
Memphis per game: 20.866th percentile · #47 nationally

PPA and success rate: CFBD, 2026 season to date, garbage time included. Points per game: 2026 games so far. Percentiles and ranks are among 2026 teams.

Tulane offense · Last 5 games · garbage time excluded

Explosiveness: 1.57
Rush success: 36.1%

Memphis defense · 5 of the last 6 games · garbage time excluded

Explosiveness allowed: 1.37
Rush success allowed: 45.3%

When Memphis has the ball

Memphis offense: 83rd
Tulane defense: 18th

Show the underlying numbers

Memphis offensive PPA per play: 0.2883rd percentile · #22 nationally
Tulane PPA allowed per play: 0.1718th percentile · #111 nationally
Memphis success rate: 50%88th percentile · #17 nationally
Tulane success rate allowed: 42%42nd percentile · #81 nationally
Memphis points per game: 38.584th percentile · #23 nationally
Tulane points allowed per game: 22.654th percentile · #63 nationally

PPA and success rate: CFBD, 2026 season to date, garbage time included. Points per game: 2026 games so far. Percentiles and ranks are among 2026 FBS teams.

Memphis offense · Last 6 games · garbage time excluded

Explosiveness: 1.27
Rush success: 51.1%

Tulane defense · Last 5 games · garbage time excluded

Explosiveness allowed: 1.20
Rush success allowed: 41.4%

Defense is oriented so a higher percentile is stronger.

Where they attack.

Follow the direction. Check the production.

Share of charted attemptsDirectional schematic

Offense moving upfield ↑

Select left, middle or right. The paths show direction only; alignment, routes and throw depth are schematic.

Kadin Semonza · 89% of charted pass attempts

Throwing left

Share of charted plays: 40%
Usage: charted in this direction: 47 attempts
Yards / attempt: 5.2; over 47 attempts with a result
Completion rate: 43%; over 47 attempts with a result

117 of 119 have a direction · 2 unknown, excluded · rounded

Charted 5 of 5 games

Efficiency charted in 5 of 5 games

Depth as written in the play-by-play: 99 short · 18 deep · 2 not stated

Who's driving the offense?

The Tulane offense in 2026

Kadin Semonza

QB · 5 games

Photo: ESPN

64/119 · 54% season

Passing yards: 804
Touchdowns: 4
Interceptions: 2

Last game

Army · Oct 10, 2026: 14/26, 158 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT

Johnnie Daniels

RB · 5 games

Photo: ESPN

Carries: 51
Rushing yards: 235
Touchdowns: 2

Last game

Army · Oct 10, 2026: 8 carries, 67 yds, 0 TD

Destyn Hill

WR · 4 games

Photo: ESPN

Receptions: 17
Receiving yards: 223
Touchdown: 1

Last game

Army · Oct 10, 2026: 5 rec, 54 yds, 0 TD

Tulane player tables

Who is producing

Tulane player production

2026 evidence · 5 games in this window · 5 with recorded rows in this view

Tulane — Passing production
Player
Kadin SemonzaQB	5	64 / 119	804	6.8	4	2
Zeon ChrissQB	1	6 / 9	64	7.1	0	0
Trace JohnsonQB	1	2 / 5	35	7.0	0	0

3 players with recorded rows

Rows are recorded player-game box lines for the games listed above. A missing row is missing data, not proof that a player did not appear, and none of these figures describe targets, snaps, starters or availability.

Memphis player tables

Who is producing

Memphis player production

2026 evidence · 6 games in this window · 6 with recorded rows in this view

Memphis — Passing production
Player
Marcus StokesQB	6	101 / 144	1,535	10.7	16	3
Air NolandQB	2	7 / 9	83	9.2	2	1

2 players with recorded rows

In the trenches

Tulane's line averages 301.6 lbs against Memphis's 275.4 lbs front — an edge of 26.2 lbs a man.

Typical FBS gap: 31.7 lbs.

Roster size is context. It isn't a forecast advantage.

Matchup	O-line	D-line
Tulane OLTulane OL vs Memphis DL	301.6 lbs	275.4 lbs
Memphis OLMemphis OL vs Tulane DL	307.5 lbs	275.4 lbs

Tulane
Memphis

Average listed roster weight, 2026 · bars run from 0 to 350 lbs.

How these teams stack up

2026 season. Percentiles and ranks are among 2026 FBS teams.

Tulane

Points per game: 18.4#124 nationally · 10th percentile · 5 games
Points allowed per game: 22.6#63 nationally · 54th percentile · 5 games
Returning production: 21% of 2025 PPA returns · 27th percentile
Upperclassmen: 35% · 119 of 119 with a class year

Memphis

Points per game: 38.5#23 nationally · 84th percentile · 6 games
Points allowed per game: 20.8#47 nationally · 66th percentile · 6 games
Returning production: 6% of 2025 PPA returns · 7th percentile
Upperclassmen: 46% · 108 of 108 with a class year

Recruiting

Tulane

2026 signing class · #64 nationally: 54th percentile · 195.1 pts
4-year recruiting composite (Saturday Bias) · classes 2023–2026 · #70 nationally: 50th percentile · −0.08 (0 is the FBS average)
Roster talent (CFBD Team Talent) · 2026 · #70 nationally: 50th percentile · 665.1

Memphis

2026 signing class · #72 nationally: 48th percentile · 189.2 pts
4-year recruiting composite (Saturday Bias) · classes 2023–2026 · #69 nationally: 50th percentile · −0.04 (0 is the FBS average)
Roster talent (CFBD Team Talent) · 2026 · #67 nationally: 52nd percentile · 670.3

Recruited classes aren't the roster that takes the field.

Season percentile profiles

Season percentiles · outward is stronger · recruiting and experience are context, not forecast weights

Tulane: solid line, circles · Memphis: dashed line, squares

Tulane

Offense · 2026: 18.8 · 17th percentile; CFBD, 2026 season to date
Defense · SP+ 2026: 26.7 · 42nd percentile; CFBD, 2026 season to date
Special teams · SP+ 2026: 0.3 · 80th percentile; CFBD, 2026 season to date
Recruiting · 2026 signing class: 195.1 pts · 54th percentile; CFBD, 2026 signing class
Experience · returning production 2026: 21% returning · 27th percentile; CFBD, 2026 roster

Memphis

Offense · SP+ 2026: 34.1 · 81st percentile; CFBD, 2026 season to date
Defense · SP+ 2026: 26.6 · 44th percentile; CFBD, 2026 season to date
Special teams · SP+ 2026: 0.0 · 37th percentile; CFBD, 2026 season to date
Recruiting · 2026 signing class: 189.2 pts · 48th percentile; CFBD, 2026 signing class
Experience · returning production 2026: 6% returning · 7th percentile; CFBD, 2026 roster

Tulane's recent games

Most recent completed 2026 games · play stats exclude garbage time

Oct 10 · 52 recorded plays
at Army
L 17–20
31%
Success rate
−0.06
PPA / play
Sep 26 · 79 recorded plays
vs Southern Miss
W 24–21
35%
Success rate
0.13
PPA / play
Sep 19 · 59 recorded plays
at Kansas State
L 20–31
34%
Success rate
0.06
PPA / play

The coaching staff

Tulane

Head coach: Will Hall
First season as Tulane's head coach · career −14.4 SP+ overall
Offensive coordinator: Russ Callaway
career +28.1 SP+ offense
Defensive coordinator: Nate Fuqua
Co-defensive coordinator · career +31.8 SP+ defense; Tayler Polk
career +31.8 SP+ defense

Memphis

Head coach: Charles Huff
First season as Memphis's head coach · career −0.4 SP+ overall
Offensive coordinator: David Weeks
Co-offensive coordinator · career +26.8 SP+ offense; Kevin Decker
career +26.8 SP+ offense
Defensive coordinator: Lance Guidry
career +24.0 SP+ defense
Photo: Summer Richard-Boudreaux, CC BY 1.0

Head-to-head

Memphis leads 14–6 since 2000

2025 · Tulane 38, Memphis 32
Simmons Bank Liberty Stadium
2024 · Memphis 34, Tulane 24
Yulman Stadium
2023 · Tulane 31, Memphis 21
Simmons Bank Liberty Stadium
2022 · Tulane 38, Memphis 28
Yulman Stadium
2021 · Memphis 33, Tulane 28
Simmons Bank Liberty Stadium
2020 · Tulane 35, Memphis 21
Yulman Stadium
2019 · Memphis 47, Tulane 17
Simmons Bank Liberty Stadium
2018 · Tulane 40, Memphis 24
Yulman Stadium
2017 · Memphis 56, Tulane 26
Simmons Bank Liberty Stadium
2016 · Memphis 24, Tulane 14
Yulman Stadium
2015 · Memphis 41, Tulane 13
Simmons Bank Liberty Stadium
2014 · Memphis 38, Tulane 7
Yulman Stadium
2012 · Memphis 37, Tulane 23
Simmons Bank Liberty Stadium
2011 · Memphis 33, Tulane 17
Caesars Superdome
2008 · Memphis 45, Tulane 6
Simmons Bank Liberty Stadium
2007 · Memphis 28, Tulane 27
Caesars Superdome
2004 · Memphis 49, Tulane 24
Simmons Bank Liberty Stadium
2003 · Memphis 41, Tulane 9
Caesars Superdome
2002 · Memphis 38, Tulane 10
Simmons Bank Liberty Stadium
2000 · Tulane 37, Memphis 14

Evidence and sources

Evidence window: 2026 season to date

Tulane: 5 games
Memphis: 6 games

Forecast: 2026 game forecast · this game · Saturday Bias
Weather: 2026 game forecast · this game · NWS
The game in a minute: 2026 season to date, garbage time included · compared with 2026 FBS teams · CFBD
When each team has the ball: 2026 season to date, garbage time included · compared with 2026 FBS teams · CFBD
Where they attack: 2026 season to date, garbage time included, regular season only · per team, not ranked · NCAA
Featured players: 2026 season to date, garbage time included · per team, not ranked · CFBD
In the trenches: 2026 roster snapshot · compared with 2026 FBS teams · CFBD
Team profiles: 2026 season to date · compared with 2026 FBS teams · CFBD
Recent games: 2026 recent games, garbage time excluded · this game · CFBD
Coaching staff: 2026 coaching staff · per team, not ranked · CFBD (head coaches, SP+) and Wikipedia (coordinators)
Head-to-head: completed meetings since 2000 · games between these two programs · CFBD

Compare these teams

Game forecast

The game in a minute

No clear statistical strength for Tulane yet

Memphis's offense leads its matchup in per-play efficiency

The forecast comes with a range

When each team has the ball

When Tulane has the ball

Tulane offense · Last 5 games · garbage time excluded

Memphis defense · 5 of the last 6 games · garbage time excluded

When Memphis has the ball

Memphis offense · Last 6 games · garbage time excluded

Tulane defense · Last 5 games · garbage time excluded

Where they attack.

Throwing left

Who's driving the offense?

Kadin Semonza

Johnnie Daniels

Destyn Hill

Tulane player production

Memphis player production

In the trenches

How these teams stack up

Tulane

Memphis

Recruiting

Tulane

Memphis

Season percentile profiles

Tulane

Memphis

Tulane's recent games

at Army

vs Southern Miss

at Kansas State

The coaching staff

Tulane

Memphis

Head-to-head

Evidence and sources