2026 Texas vs 2026 UTSA — Saturday Bias

Hypothetical

Texas by 18.5

91% to win

High confidence — 5 games in — see our accuracy

Hypothetical forecast · SBR sbr-2r

Why this number

TexasPreseason baseline +20.9In-season results +3.8

UTSAPreseason baseline +2.7In-season results +1.1

UTSA home field +2.5

How they're built

0–100 percentile · higher is stronger

Compare the whole profile, then explore each dimension.

Offensive production relative to that season’s field. Compare an offense with the opposing defense in the scouting report.

Recruiting and experience add context; the five axes aren't equal weights in the forecast.

The numbers behind the profiles

Measure	2026 Texas	2026 UTSA
Offensive / play	0.0831st percentile	0.2374th percentile
PPA allowed / play	−0.0582nd percentile	0.0648th percentile
Points per game	31.458th percentile5 games	31.357th percentile6 games
per game	16.085th percentile5 games	25.832nd percentile6 games

Programs don't stand still

SP+ percentile among FBS teams, by season. The marked point is each compared season.

2026 Texas2026 UTSA

Momentum

Texas→ steady (+1 pctl over 3 seasons)

UTSA→ steady (−1 pctl over 3 seasons)

Talent in, results out

Recruiting-class percentile feeding each roster, compared with its SP+ result.

2026 Texas

Average signing-class percentile, classes 2023–2026: 98th percentile
SP+ percentile, 2026: 96th percentile

Matching its talent (−1)

2026 UTSA

Average signing-class percentile, classes 2023–2026: 32nd percentile
SP+ percentile, 2026: 52nd percentile

Outperforming its talent (+20)

Campus distance

75 miles apart

There's more to the matchup.

Supporting context, ready when you want it.

In the trenches · both directions

Matchup	O-line	D-line
2026 Texas OL vs 2026 UTSA DL	319.4 lbs	280.0 lbs
2026 UTSA OL vs 2026 Texas DL	308.5 lbs	294.4 lbs

2026 Texas line yards 2.89 · 2026 UTSA stuff rate 17.1%

2026 UTSA line yards 3.11 · 2026 Texas stuff rate 22.6%

Fans swear big lines win games. They're half right — big-line teams do win more, but only because good programs recruit big linemen. Once we account for talent and last season, line size adds nothing to the prediction. Across 11 seasons, no measurable effect on margin.

Roster size is context. It isn't a forecast advantage.

Backtested effect: 0.42 pts at 1σ.

Head-to-head · Texas leads 3–0 since 2000

Texas has won 3 straight

Season	Score	Venue
2026	Texas 30–6 UTSA	DKR-Texas Memorial Stadium · Texas home
2024	Texas 56–7 UTSA	DKR-Texas Memorial Stadium · Texas home
2022	Texas 41–20 UTSA	DKR-Texas Memorial Stadium · Texas home

Coaching & program context

2026 Texas

Steve Sarkisian

A. J. Milwee (co-OC)
Kyle Flood

career average +29.3 SP+ offense

Scheme: Pro-style spread (listed on Wikipedia)

Style: Balanced, up-tempo (threw on 45% of its run–pass plays, 42nd percentile of 2026 FBS; 71.0 plays a game, 76th percentile)

Will Muschamp

career average +10.6 SP+ defense

Scheme: no scheme listed

2026 UTSA

Jeff Traylor

Rick Bowie

career average +28.8 SP+ offense

Scheme: Up-tempo spread (listed on Wikipedia)

Style: Balanced, average pace (threw on 47% of its run–pass plays, 53rd percentile of 2026 FBS; 67.3 plays a game, 49th percentile)

Jess Loepp

career average +30.4 SP+ defense

Scheme: 3–4 (listed on Wikipedia)

A new coordinator feels like it should swing a game. Across 11 seasons, the change doesn't move the final margin beyond what the roster already tells us. Shown as context, not a factor in our number.

Run-heavy team meets a defense that can't stop the run — feels like extra points waiting. Across 7 seasons the matchup adds nothing beyond what the two ratings already say; if anything the point estimate leans the other way.