Saturday, October 17

UTSA

5–1

Navy

2–3

8:00 PM ET7:00 PM CTAlamodomeSan Antonio, TX

Weather

Played indoors at Alamodome.

Weather is not an input to the SBR forecast.

Game forecast

79%

UTSA win probability

Navy 21%

UTSA by 11.2

Projected margin

Margin uncertainty ±14.1 points

Published forecast · SBR sbr-2r · Model track record

The game in a minute

01 · UTSA's case

UTSA's offense leads its matchup in per-play efficiency

UTSA's offense is in the 74th percentile for per play this season. Navy's defense is in the 36th percentile for PPA allowed.

See when each team has the ball

02 · Navy's answer

Navy's offense leads its matchup in

Navy's offense is in the 79th percentile for success rate this season. UTSA's defense is in the 42nd percentile for success rate allowed.

See the underlying numbers

03 · What could swing it

The forecast comes with a range

The model gives UTSA a 79% chance to win and predicts UTSA by 11.2 points. That margin has an uncertainty of ±14.1 points.

See the forecast

When each team has the ball

Offensive efficiency meets defensive efficiency. Percentiles run from 0 to 100.

When UTSA has the ball

UTSA offense: 74th
Navy defense: 36th

Show the underlying numbers

UTSA offensive PPA per play: 0.2374th percentile · #34 nationally
Navy PPA allowed per play: 0.0936th percentile · #81 nationally
UTSA success rate: 47%73rd percentile · #38 nationally
Navy success rate allowed: 36%76th percentile · #34 nationally
UTSA points per game: 31.357th percentile · #60 nationally
Navy per game: 23.450th percentile · #68 nationally

PPA and success rate: CFBD, 2026 season to date, garbage time included. Points per game: 2026 games so far. Percentiles and ranks are among 2026 teams.

UTSA offense · Last 6 games · garbage time excluded

Explosiveness: 1.11
Rush success: 52.8%

Navy defense · 4 of the last 5 games · garbage time excluded

Explosiveness allowed: 1.37
Rush success allowed: 33.3%

When Navy has the ball

Navy offense: 64th
UTSA defense: 48th

Show the underlying numbers

Navy offensive PPA per play: 0.2064th percentile · #45 nationally
UTSA PPA allowed per play: 0.0648th percentile · #64 nationally
Navy success rate: 48%79th percentile · #30 nationally
UTSA success rate allowed: 41%42nd percentile · #80 nationally
Navy points per game: 27.039th percentile · #84 nationally
UTSA points allowed per game: 25.832nd percentile · #93 nationally

PPA and success rate: CFBD, 2026 season to date, garbage time included. Points per game: 2026 games so far. Percentiles and ranks are among 2026 FBS teams.

Navy offense · Last 5 games · garbage time excluded

Explosiveness: 1.15
Rush success: 52.4%

UTSA defense · 5 of the last 6 games · garbage time excluded

Explosiveness allowed: 1.19
Rush success allowed: 43.4%

Defense is oriented so a higher percentile is stronger.

Where they attack.

Follow the direction. Check the production.

Share of charted attemptsDirectional schematic

Offense moving upfield ↑

Select left, middle or right. The paths show direction only; alignment, routes and throw depth are schematic.

Owen McCown · 98% of charted pass attempts

Throwing left

Share of charted plays: 45%
Usage: charted in this direction: 54 attempts
Yards / attempt: 7.7; over 54 attempts with a result
Completion rate: 72%; over 54 attempts with a result

121 of 122 have a direction · 1 unknown, excluded · rounded

Charted 4 of 6 games

Efficiency charted in 4 of 6 games

Depth as written in the play-by-play: 111 short · 10 deep · 1 not stated

What to watch

Most charted attempts go left (45%). Left gives the most yards per attempt: 7.7 over 54 attempts with a result.

Who's driving the offense?

The UTSA offense in 2026

Owen McCown

QB · 6 games

Photo: ESPN

125/182 · 69% season

Passing yards: 1,219
Touchdowns: 7
Interceptions: 2

Last game

South Florida · Oct 8, 2026: 22/31, 209 yds, 0 TD, 0 INT

Will Henderson III

RB · 6 games

Photo: ESPN

Carries: 78
Rushing yards: 482
Touchdowns: 3

Last game

South Florida · Oct 8, 2026: 13 carries, 86 yds, 0 TD

David Amador

WR · 6 games

Photo: ESPN

Receptions: 28
Receiving yards: 217
Touchdown: 1

Last game

South Florida · Oct 8, 2026: 9 rec, 70 yds, 0 TD

UTSA player tables

Who is producing

UTSA player production

2026 evidence · 6 games in this window · 6 with recorded rows in this view

UTSA — Passing production
Player
Owen McCownQB	6	125 / 182	1,219	6.7	7	2
Brandon TennisonQB	1	0 / 2	0	0.0	0	0
David AmadorWR	2	1 / 2	44	22.0	1	0

3 players with recorded rows

Rows are recorded player-game box lines for the games listed above. A missing row is missing data, not proof that a player did not appear, and none of these figures describe targets, snaps, starters or availability.

Navy player tables

Who is producing

Navy player production

2026 evidence · 5 games in this window · 5 with recorded rows in this view

Navy — Passing production
Player
Jackson GutierrezQB	4	22 / 47	439	9.3	4	1
Braxton WoodsonQB	3	7 / 20	71	3.6	0	1

2 players with recorded rows

In the trenches

UTSA's line averages 308.5 lbs against Navy's 267.0 lbs front — an edge of 41.5 lbs a man.

Typical FBS gap: 31.7 lbs.

Roster size is context. It isn't a forecast advantage.

Matchup	O-line	D-line
UTSA OLUTSA OL vs Navy DL	308.5 lbs	267.0 lbs
Navy OLNavy OL vs UTSA DL	287.8 lbs	280.0 lbs

UTSA
Navy

Average listed roster weight, 2026 · bars run from 0 to 350 lbs.

How these teams stack up

2026 season. Percentiles and ranks are among 2026 FBS teams.

UTSA

Points per game: 31.3#60 nationally · 57th percentile · 6 games
Points allowed per game: 25.8#93 nationally · 32nd percentile · 6 games
Returning production: 67% of 2025 PPA returns · 79th percentile
Upperclassmen: 53% · 160 of 160 with a class year

Navy

Points per game: 27.0#84 nationally · 39th percentile · 5 games
Points allowed per game: 23.4#68 nationally · 50th percentile · 5 games
Returning production: 14% of 2025 PPA returns · 16th percentile
Upperclassmen: 40% · 197 of 197 with a class year

Recruiting

UTSA

2026 signing class · #79 nationally: 43rd percentile · 185.8 pts
4-year recruiting composite (Saturday Bias) · classes 2023–2026 · #98 nationally: 29th percentile · −0.54 (0 is the FBS average)
Roster talent (CFBD Team Talent) · 2026 · #72 nationally: 48th percentile · 655.8

Navy

2026 signing class · #137 nationally: 1st percentile · 99.4 pts
4-year recruiting composite (Saturday Bias) · classes 2023–2026 · #137 nationally: 1st percentile · −2.23 (0 is the FBS average)
Roster talent (CFBD Team Talent) · 2026 · #138 nationally: 0th percentile · 195.7

Recruited classes aren't the roster that takes the field.

Season percentile profiles

Season percentiles · outward is stronger · recruiting and experience are context, not forecast weights

UTSA: solid line, circles · Navy: dashed line, squares

UTSA

Offense · 2026: 28.3 · 58th percentile; CFBD, 2026 season to date
Defense · SP+ 2026: 27.5 · 40th percentile; CFBD, 2026 season to date
Special teams · SP+ 2026: 0.0 · 37th percentile; CFBD, 2026 season to date
Recruiting · 2026 signing class: 185.8 pts · 43rd percentile; CFBD, 2026 signing class
Experience · returning production 2026: 67% returning · 79th percentile; CFBD, 2026 roster

Navy

Offense · SP+ 2026: 26.3 · 45th percentile; CFBD, 2026 season to date
Defense · SP+ 2026: 26.4 · 47th percentile; CFBD, 2026 season to date
Special teams · SP+ 2026: 0.0 · 37th percentile; CFBD, 2026 season to date
Recruiting · 2026 signing class: 99.4 pts · 1st percentile; CFBD, 2026 signing class
Experience · returning production 2026: 14% returning · 16th percentile; CFBD, 2026 roster

UTSA's recent games

Most recent completed 2026 games · play stats exclude garbage time

Oct 8 · 78 recorded plays
vs South Florida
W 31–24
56%
Success rate
0.31
PPA / play
Oct 3 · 73 recorded plays
at Rice
W 16–14
37%
Success rate
0.04
PPA / play
Sep 26 · 73 recorded plays
vs Colorado State
W 59–45
48%
Success rate
0.41
PPA / play

The coaching staff

UTSA

Head coach: Jeff Traylor
career +2.6 SP+ overall
Photo: Kinu Panda, CC BY-SA 4.0
Offensive coordinator: Rick Bowie
career +28.8 SP+ offense
Defensive coordinator: Jess Loepp
career +30.4 SP+ defense

Navy

Head coach: Brian Newberry
career −1.3 SP+ overall
Photo: The White House, Public domain
Offensive coordinator: Drew Cronic
career +31.6 SP+ offense
Defensive coordinator: Eric Lewis
career +35.2 SP+ defense; Ricky Brown
Co-defensive coordinator · career +35.2 SP+ defense
Photo: Jeffrey Beall, CC BY-SA 3.0

Head-to-head

No meetings since 2000

Evidence and sources

Evidence window: 2026 season to date

UTSA: 6 games
Navy: 5 games

Forecast: 2026 game forecast · this game · Saturday Bias
The game in a minute: 2026 season to date, garbage time included · compared with 2026 FBS teams · CFBD
When each team has the ball: 2026 season to date, garbage time included · compared with 2026 FBS teams · CFBD
Where they attack: 2026 season to date, garbage time included, regular season only · per team, not ranked · NCAA
Featured players: 2026 season to date, garbage time included · per team, not ranked · CFBD
In the trenches: 2026 roster snapshot · compared with 2026 FBS teams · CFBD
Team profiles: 2026 season to date · compared with 2026 FBS teams · CFBD
Recent games: 2026 recent games, garbage time excluded · this game · CFBD
Coaching staff: 2026 coaching staff · per team, not ranked · CFBD (head coaches, SP+) and Wikipedia (coordinators)
Head-to-head: completed meetings since 2000 · games between these two programs · CFBD

Compare these teams

Game forecast

The game in a minute

UTSA's offense leads its matchup in per-play efficiency

Navy's offense leads its matchup in success rate

The forecast comes with a range

When each team has the ball

When UTSA has the ball

UTSA offense · Last 6 games · garbage time excluded

Navy defense · 4 of the last 5 games · garbage time excluded

When Navy has the ball

Navy offense · Last 5 games · garbage time excluded

UTSA defense · 5 of the last 6 games · garbage time excluded

Where they attack.

Throwing left

Who's driving the offense?

Owen McCown

Will Henderson III

David Amador

UTSA player production

Navy player production

In the trenches

How these teams stack up

UTSA

Navy

Recruiting

UTSA

Navy

Season percentile profiles

UTSA

Navy

UTSA's recent games

vs South Florida

at Rice

vs Colorado State

The coaching staff

UTSA

Navy

Head-to-head

Evidence and sources

Navy's offense leads its matchup in