Saturday, October 17

Texas

4–1 · AP #7

Florida

4–2

12:00 PM ET11:00 AM CTDKR-Texas Memorial StadiumAustin, TX

Weather

Partly cloudy68°FN 13 mphGusts 25 mphPrecip 0%

At kickoff · 11:00 AM CT · Updated 1:36 PM CT · National Weather Service

Hour by hour

Austin · local time (CT)

Kickoff hour

Partly cloudy68°FN 13 mphGusts 25 mphPrecip 0%

Weather is not an input to the SBR forecast.

Game forecast

79%

Texas win probability

Florida 21%

Texas by 11.3

Projected margin

Margin uncertainty ±14.3 points

Published forecast · SBR sbr-2r · Model track record

The game in a minute

01 · Texas's case

Texas's offense leads its matchup in scoring

Texas's offense is in the 58th percentile for points per game this season. Florida's defense is in the 18th percentile for per game.

See the underlying numbers

02 · Florida's answer

Florida has no clear answer on this matchup

None of its defense's numbers stands out against Texas's offense.

03 · What could swing it

Wind is in the kickoff forecast

The National Weather Service forecast shows gusts to 25 mph at kickoff.

See the weather

When each team has the ball

Offensive efficiency meets defensive efficiency. Percentiles run from 0 to 100.

When Texas has the ball

Texas offense: 31st
Florida defense: 36th

Show the underlying numbers

Texas offensive per play: 0.0831st percentile · #95 nationally
Florida PPA allowed per play: 0.0936th percentile · #81 nationally
Texas: 44%48th percentile · #72 nationally
Florida success rate allowed: 42%39th percentile · #84 nationally
Texas points per game: 31.458th percentile · #59 nationally
Florida points allowed per game: 29.018th percentile · #113 nationally

PPA and success rate: CFBD, 2026 season to date, garbage time included. Points per game: 2026 games so far. Percentiles and ranks are among 2026 teams.

Texas offense · Last 5 games · garbage time excluded

Explosiveness: 1.17
Rush success: 43.9%

Florida defense · 5 of the last 6 games · garbage time excluded

Explosiveness allowed: 1.28
Rush success allowed: 44.3%

When Florida has the ball

Florida offense: 83rd
Texas defense: 82nd

Show the underlying numbers

Florida offensive PPA per play: 0.2883rd percentile · #22 nationally
Texas PPA allowed per play: −0.0582nd percentile · #22 nationally
Florida success rate: 48%78th percentile · #31 nationally
Texas success rate allowed: 35%82nd percentile · #25 nationally
Florida points per game: 41.792nd percentile · #12 nationally
Texas points allowed per game: 16.085th percentile · #21 nationally

PPA and success rate: CFBD, 2026 season to date, garbage time included. Points per game: 2026 games so far. Percentiles and ranks are among 2026 FBS teams.

Florida offense · Last 6 games · garbage time excluded

Explosiveness: 1.25
Rush success: 45.8%

Texas defense · Last 5 games · garbage time excluded

Explosiveness allowed: 1.05
Rush success allowed: 35.4%

Defense is oriented so a higher percentile is stronger.

Where they attack.

Follow the direction. Check the production.

Share of charted attemptsDirectional schematic

Offense moving upfield ↑

Select left, middle or right. The paths show direction only; alignment, routes and throw depth are schematic.

Arch Manning · 78% of charted pass attempts

8 of 148 throws name no passer

Throwing left

Share of charted plays: 39%
Usage: charted in this direction: 44 attempts
Yards / attempt: 7.6; over 43 attempts with a result
Completion rate: 65%; over 43 attempts with a result

112 of 115 have a direction · 3 unknown, excluded · rounded

Charted 5 of 5 games

Efficiency charted in 5 of 5 games

Depth as written in the play-by-play: 100 short · 12 deep · 3 not stated

Who's driving the offense?

The Texas offense in 2026

Arch Manning

QB · 5 games

Photo: ESPN

93/147 · 63% season

Passing yards: 1,125
Touchdowns: 10
Interceptions: 5

Last game

Oklahoma · Oct 10, 2026: 19/31, 260 yds, 3 TD, 2 INT

Daylan Smothers

RB · 4 games

Photo: ESPN

Carries: 53
Rushing yards: 237
Touchdowns: 2

Last game

Oklahoma · Oct 10, 2026: 12 carries, 39 yds, 0 TD

Ryan Wingo

WR · 5 games

Receptions: 21
Receiving yards: 296
Touchdowns: 3

Last game

Oklahoma · Oct 10, 2026: 2 rec, 57 yds, 1 TD

Texas player tables

Who is producing

Texas player production

2026 evidence · 5 games in this window · 5 with recorded rows in this view

Texas — Passing production
Player
Arch ManningQB	5	93 / 147	1,125	7.7	10	5
Karle Lacey Jr.QB	2	7 / 8	63	7.9	0	0

2 players with recorded rows

Rows are recorded player-game box lines for the games listed above. A missing row is missing data, not proof that a player did not appear, and none of these figures describe targets, snaps, starters or availability.

Florida player tables

Who is producing

Florida player production

2026 evidence · 6 games in this window · 6 with recorded rows in this view

Florida — Passing production
Player
Aaron PhiloQB	6	105 / 149	1,341	9.0	9	3
Tramell Jones Jr.QB	4	23 / 29	252	8.7	2	2
Kahleil JacksonWR	1	1 / 1	48	48.0	0	0

3 players with recorded rows

In the trenches

Texas's line averages 319.4 lbs against Florida's 293.9 lbs front — an edge of 25.5 lbs a man.

Typical FBS gap: 31.7 lbs.

Roster size is context. It isn't a forecast advantage.

Matchup	O-line	D-line
Texas OLTexas OL vs Florida DL	319.4 lbs	293.9 lbs
Florida OLFlorida OL vs Texas DL	311.7 lbs	294.4 lbs

Texas
Florida

Average listed roster weight, 2026 · bars run from 0 to 350 lbs.

How these teams stack up

2026 season. Percentiles and ranks are among 2026 FBS teams.

Texas

Points per game: 31.4#59 nationally · 58th percentile · 5 games
Points allowed per game: 16.0#21 nationally · 85th percentile · 5 games
Returning production: 72% of 2025 PPA returns · 86th percentile
Upperclassmen: 48% · 112 of 112 with a class year

Florida

Points per game: 41.7#12 nationally · 92nd percentile · 6 games
Points allowed per game: 29.0#113 nationally · 18th percentile · 6 games
Returning production: 69% of 2025 PPA returns · 84th percentile
Upperclassmen: 57% · 138 of 138 with a class year

Recruiting

Texas

2026 signing class · #7 nationally: 96th percentile · 291.2 pts
4-year recruiting composite (Saturday Bias) · classes 2023–2026 · #5 nationally: 97th percentile · 2.11 (0 is the FBS average)
Roster talent (CFBD Team Talent) · 2026 · #2 nationally: 99th percentile · 985.2

Florida

2026 signing class · #17 nationally: 88th percentile · 251.0 pts
4-year recruiting composite (Saturday Bias) · classes 2023–2026 · #13 nationally: 91st percentile · 1.48 (0 is the FBS average)
Roster talent (CFBD Team Talent) · 2026 · #10 nationally: 93rd percentile · 891.1

Recruited classes aren't the roster that takes the field.

Season percentile profiles

Season percentiles · outward is stronger · recruiting and experience are context, not forecast weights

Texas: solid line, circles · Florida: dashed line, squares

Texas

Offense · 2026: 36.4 · 89th percentile; CFBD, 2026 season to date
Defense · SP+ 2026: 12.2 · 99th percentile; CFBD, 2026 season to date
Special teams · SP+ 2026: 0.3 · 80th percentile; CFBD, 2026 season to date
Recruiting · 2026 signing class: 291.2 pts · 96th percentile; CFBD, 2026 signing class
Experience · returning production 2026: 72% returning · 86th percentile; CFBD, 2026 roster

Florida

Offense · SP+ 2026: 35.1 · 87th percentile; CFBD, 2026 season to date
Defense · SP+ 2026: 24.6 · 58th percentile; CFBD, 2026 season to date
Special teams · SP+ 2026: 0.5 · 99th percentile; CFBD, 2026 season to date
Recruiting · 2026 signing class: 251.0 pts · 88th percentile; CFBD, 2026 signing class
Experience · returning production 2026: 69% returning · 84th percentile; CFBD, 2026 roster

Texas's recent games

Most recent completed 2026 games · play stats exclude garbage time

Oct 10 · 65 recorded plays
vs Oklahoma · neutral site
L 24–27
35%
Success rate
−0.08
PPA / play
Sep 26 · 59 recorded plays
at Tennessee
W 20–17
34%
Success rate
−0.14
PPA / play
Sep 19 · 74 recorded plays
vs UTSA
W 30–6
46%
Success rate
0.02
PPA / play

The coaching staff

Texas

Head coach: Steve Sarkisian
career +13.2 SP+ overall
Photo: Maize & Blue Nation, CC BY 2.0
Offensive coordinator: A. J. Milwee
Co-offensive coordinator · career +29.3 SP+ offense; Kyle Flood
career +29.3 SP+ offense
Defensive coordinator: Will Muschamp
career +10.6 SP+ defense
Photo: Enoch Lai, CC BY 3.0

Florida

Head coach: Jon Sumrall
First season as Florida's head coach · career +7.5 SP+ overall
Photo: Bobak Ha'Eri, CC BY 3.0
Offensive coordinator: Buster Faulkner
career +28.2 SP+ offense
Defensive coordinator: Brad White
career +19.2 SP+ defense

Head-to-head

Series tied 1–1 since 2000

2025 · Florida 29, Texas 21
Ben Hill Griffin Stadium
2024 · Texas 49, Florida 17
DKR-Texas Memorial Stadium

Evidence and sources

Evidence window: 2026 season to date

Texas: 5 games
Florida: 6 games

Forecast: 2026 game forecast · this game · Saturday Bias
Weather: 2026 game forecast · this game · NWS
The game in a minute: 2026 season to date, garbage time included · compared with 2026 FBS teams · CFBD
When each team has the ball: 2026 season to date, garbage time included · compared with 2026 FBS teams · CFBD
Where they attack: 2026 season to date, garbage time included, regular season only · per team, not ranked · NCAA
Featured players: 2026 season to date, garbage time included · per team, not ranked · CFBD
In the trenches: 2026 roster snapshot · compared with 2026 FBS teams · CFBD
Team profiles: 2026 season to date · compared with 2026 FBS teams · CFBD
Recent games: 2026 recent games, garbage time excluded · this game · CFBD
Coaching staff: 2026 coaching staff · per team, not ranked · CFBD (head coaches, SP+) and Wikipedia (coordinators)
Head-to-head: completed meetings since 2000 · games between these two programs · CFBD

Compare these teams

Game forecast

The game in a minute

Texas's offense leads its matchup in scoring

Florida has no clear answer on this matchup

Wind is in the kickoff forecast

When each team has the ball

When Texas has the ball

Texas offense · Last 5 games · garbage time excluded

Florida defense · 5 of the last 6 games · garbage time excluded

When Florida has the ball

Florida offense · Last 6 games · garbage time excluded

Texas defense · Last 5 games · garbage time excluded

Where they attack.

Throwing left

Who's driving the offense?

Arch Manning

Daylan Smothers

Ryan Wingo

Texas player production

Florida player production

In the trenches

How these teams stack up

Texas

Florida

Recruiting

Texas

Florida

Season percentile profiles

Texas

Florida

Texas's recent games

vs Oklahoma · neutral site

at Tennessee

vs UTSA

The coaching staff

Texas

Florida

Head-to-head

Evidence and sources