2026 Missouri vs 2026 Troy

Hypothetical

Missouri by 23.5

95% to win

High confidence — 5 games in — see our accuracy

Hypothetical forecast · SBR sbr-2r

Why this number

MissouriPreseason baseline +14.3In-season results +5.9

TroyPreseason baseline −1.7In-season results +0.9

Missouri home field +2.5

How they're built

0–100 percentile · higher is stronger

Compare the whole profile, then explore each dimension.

Offensive production relative to that season’s field. Compare an offense with the opposing defense in the scouting report.

Recruiting and experience add context; the five axes aren't equal weights in the forecast.

The numbers behind the profiles

Measure	2026 Missouri	2026 Troy
Offensive / play	0.2064th percentile	0.1343rd percentile
PPA allowed / play	−0.0274th percentile	0.0747th percentile
Points per game	35.877th percentile6 games	28.045th percentile5 games
per game	17.780th percentile6 games	24.046th percentile5 games

Programs don't stand still

SP+ percentile among FBS teams, by season. The marked point is each compared season.

2026 Missouri2026 Troy

Momentum

Missouri→ steady (+5 pctl over 3 seasons)

Troy→ steady (−1 pctl over 3 seasons)

Talent in, results out

Recruiting-class percentile feeding each roster, compared with its SP+ result.

2026 Missouri

Average signing-class percentile, classes 2023–2026: 81st percentile
SP+ percentile, 2026: 91st percentile

Outperforming its talent (+11)

2026 Troy

Average signing-class percentile, classes 2023–2026: 37th percentile
SP+ percentile, 2026: 28th percentile

Matching its talent (−10)

Campus distance

610 miles apart

There's more to the matchup.

Supporting context, ready when you want it.

In the trenches · both directions

Matchup	O-line	D-line
2026 Missouri OL vs 2026 Troy DL	309.3 lbs	286.8 lbs
2026 Troy OL vs 2026 Missouri DL	308.5 lbs	274.6 lbs

2026 Missouri line yards 2.92 · 2026 Troy stuff rate 24.1%

2026 Troy line yards 3.02 · 2026 Missouri stuff rate 24.9%

Fans swear big lines win games. They're half right — big-line teams do win more, but only because good programs recruit big linemen. Once we account for talent and last season, line size adds nothing to the prediction. Across 11 seasons, no measurable effect on margin.

Roster size is context. It isn't a forecast advantage.

Backtested effect: 0.42 pts at 1σ.

Head-to-head · Missouri leads 4–1 since 2000

Missouri has won 3 straight

Season	Score	Venue
2026	Missouri 27–17 Troy	Memorial Stadium · Missouri home
2019	Missouri 42–10 Troy	Memorial Stadium · Missouri home
2005	Missouri 52–21 Troy	Memorial Stadium · Missouri home
2004	Missouri 14–24 Troy	Veterans Memorial Stadium (AL) · Troy home
2002	Missouri 44–7 Troy	Memorial Stadium · Missouri home

Coaching & program context

2026 Missouri

Eli Drinkwitz

Chip Lindsey

career average +29.7 SP+ offense

Scheme: Spread (listed on Wikipedia)

Style: Balanced, up-tempo (threw on 44% of its run–pass plays, 39th percentile of 2026 FBS; 70.5 plays a game, 73rd percentile)

Corey Batoon

career average +21.1 SP+ defense

Scheme: 4–2–5 (listed on Wikipedia)

2026 Troy

Gerad Parker

Adam Austin

no career track record on file

Scheme: no scheme listed

Style: Run-heavy, up-tempo (threw on 42% of its run–pass plays, 28th percentile of 2026 FBS; 74.6 plays a game, 91st percentile)

Dontae Wright
Nathan Burton (co-DC)

career average +29.6 SP+ defense

Scheme: Multiple 3–3–5 (listed on Wikipedia, 2025 listing)

A new coordinator feels like it should swing a game. Across 11 seasons, the change doesn't move the final margin beyond what the roster already tells us. Shown as context, not a factor in our number.

Run-heavy team meets a defense that can't stop the run — feels like extra points waiting. Across 7 seasons the matchup adds nothing beyond what the two ratings already say; if anything the point estimate leans the other way.