Saturday, October 17
Compare these teams
3–2
at
Louisiana
4–2
5:00 PM ET4:00 PM CTCajun FieldLafayette, LA
Clear77°FN 20 mphGusts 26 mphPrecip 1%
At kickoff · 4:00 PM CT · Updated 12:45 PM CT · National Weather Service
Lafayette · local time (CT)
Kickoff hour
Clear77°FN 20 mphGusts 26 mphPrecip 1%
Weather is not an input to the SBR forecast.
41%
Troy win probability
Louisiana 59%
Louisiana by 3.3
Projected margin
Margin uncertainty ±14.0 points
Published forecast · SBR sbr-2r · Model track record
01 · Louisiana's case
Louisiana's defense is in the 80th percentile for allowed per play this season. Troy's offense is in the 43rd percentile for PPA per play.
See when each team has the ball02 · Troy's answer
None of its offense's numbers stands out against Louisiana's defense.
03 · What could swing it
The National Weather Service forecast shows gusts to 26 mph at kickoff.
See the weatherOffensive efficiency meets defensive efficiency. Percentiles run from 0 to 100.
PPA and success rate: CFBD, 2026 season to date, garbage time included. Points per game: 2026 games so far. Percentiles and ranks are among 2026 teams.
PPA and success rate: CFBD, 2026 season to date, garbage time included. Points per game: 2026 games so far. Percentiles and ranks are among 2026 FBS teams.
Defense is oriented so a higher percentile is stronger.
Follow the direction. Check the production.
Offense moving upfield ↑
Goose Crowder · 99% of charted pass attempts
128 of 132 have a direction · 4 unknown, excluded · rounded
Charted 4 of 5 games
Efficiency charted in 4 of 5 games
Depth as written in the play-by-play: 106 short · 22 deep · 4 not stated
What to watch
Most charted attempts go right (57%). Middle gives the most yards per attempt: 10.1 over 20 attempts with a result.
The Troy offense in 2026
QB · 5 games
Photo: ESPN
87/153 · 57% season
Last game
Southern Miss · Oct 6, 2026: 18/21, 225 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT
RB · 5 games
Photo: ESPN
Last game
Southern Miss · Oct 6, 2026: 15 carries, 78 yds, 1 TD
WR · 3 games
Photo: ESPN
Last game
Southern Miss · Oct 6, 2026: 2 rec, 9 yds, 0 TD
Who is producing
2026 evidence · 5 games in this window · 5 with recorded rows in this view
Sorted by Completions and attempts, highest first
| Player | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will CrowderQB | 5 | 87 / 153 | 1,047 | 6.8 | 9 | 4 |
| Evan CrenshawP | 1 | 0 / 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Tucker KilcreaseQB | 1 | 0 / 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
3 players with recorded rows
Rows are recorded player-game box lines for the games listed above. A missing row is missing data, not proof that a player did not appear, and none of these figures describe targets, snaps, starters or availability.
Who is producing
2026 evidence · 6 games in this window · 6 with recorded rows in this view
Sorted by Completions and attempts, highest first
| Player | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D'Wayne' WinfieldQB | 6 | 97 / 134 | 1,088 | 8.1 | 3 | 4 |
| Daniel BealeQB | 2 | 5 / 8 | 52 | 6.5 | 0 | 1 |
| Ja'Corian NorrisWR | 1 | 0 / 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
3 players with recorded rows
Rows are recorded player-game box lines for the games listed above. A missing row is missing data, not proof that a player did not appear, and none of these figures describe targets, snaps, starters or availability.
Troy's line averages 308.5 lbs against Louisiana's 272.3 lbs front — an edge of 36.2 lbs a man.
Louisiana's front average is based on 16 of 18 linemen.
Typical FBS gap: 31.7 lbs.
Roster size is context. It isn't a forecast advantage.
| Matchup | O-line | D-line |
|---|---|---|
| Troy OLTroy OL vs Louisiana DL | 308.5 lbs | 272.3 lbs |
| Louisiana OLLouisiana OL vs Troy DL | 312.7 lbs | 286.8 lbs |
Average listed roster weight, 2026 · bars run from 0 to 350 lbs.
2026 season. Percentiles and ranks are among 2026 FBS teams.
Recruited classes aren't the roster that takes the field.
Season percentiles · outward is stronger · recruiting and experience are context, not forecast weights
Troy: solid line, circles · Louisiana: dashed line, squares
Most recent completed 2026 games · play stats exclude garbage time
Oct 6 · 81 recorded plays
W 55–34
59%
Success rate
0.50
PPA / play
Sep 26 · 81 recorded plays
L 10–21
42%
Success rate
−0.15
PPA / play
Sep 19 · 72 recorded plays
L 17–27
36%
Success rate
−0.09
PPA / play
Adam Austin
no career rating on file
Dontae Wright
career +29.6 SP+ defense
Nathan Burton
Co-defensive coordinator · career +29.6 SP+ defense
Michael Desormeaux
career +1.2 SP+ overall
Tim Leger
career +28.2 SP+ offense
Jim Salgado
career +30.9 SP+ defense
2025 · Troy 35, Louisiana 23
Veterans Memorial Stadium (AL)
2024 · Louisiana 51, Troy 30
Cajun Field
2023 · Troy 31, Louisiana 24
Veterans Memorial Stadium (AL)
2022 · Troy 23, Louisiana 17
Cajun Field
2021 · Louisiana 35, Troy 21
Veterans Memorial Stadium (AL)
2019 · Louisiana 53, Troy 3
Cajun Field
2018 · Troy 26, Louisiana 16
Veterans Memorial Stadium (AL)
2015 · Troy 41, Louisiana 17
Cajun Field
2014 · Louisiana 42, Troy 23
Veterans Memorial Stadium (AL)
2013 · Louisiana 41, Troy 36
Cajun Field
2012 · Louisiana 37, Troy 24
Veterans Memorial Stadium (AL)
2011 · Louisiana 31, Troy 17
Cajun Field
2010 · Troy 31, Louisiana 24
Veterans Memorial Stadium (AL)
2009 · Troy 48, Louisiana 31
Cajun Field
2008 · Troy 48, Louisiana 3
Veterans Memorial Stadium (AL)
2007 · Troy 48, Louisiana 31
Cajun Field
2006 · Troy 42, Louisiana 28
Veterans Memorial Stadium (AL)
2005 · Louisiana 31, Troy 28
Cajun Field
2004 · Troy 13, Louisiana 10
Cajun Field
Evidence window: 2026 season to date