Saturday, October 17

Missouri

5–1 · AP #13

Ole Miss

4–1 · AP #9

3:30 PM ET2:30 PM CTVaught-Hemingway StadiumOxford, MS

Weather

Clear69°FNE 15 mphGusts 21 mphPrecip 0%

At kickoff · 2:30 PM CT · Updated 12:15 PM CT · National Weather Service

Hour by hour

Oxford · local time (CT)

Kickoff hour

Clear69°FNE 15 mphGusts 21 mphPrecip 0%

Weather is not an input to the SBR forecast.

Game forecast

48%

Missouri win probability

Ole Miss 52%

Ole Miss by 0.7

Projected margin

Margin uncertainty ±14.3 points

Published forecast · SBR sbr-2r · Model track record

The game in a minute

01 · Missouri's case

Missouri's offense leads its matchup in scoring

Missouri's offense is in the 77th percentile for points per game this season. Ole Miss's defense is in the 20th percentile for per game.

See the underlying numbers

02 · Ole Miss's answer

Ole Miss has no clear answer on this matchup

None of its defense's numbers stands out against Missouri's offense.

03 · What could swing it

The forecast comes with a range

The model gives Missouri a 48% chance to win and predicts Ole Miss by 0.7 points. That margin has an uncertainty of ±14.3 points.

See the forecast

When each team has the ball

Offensive efficiency meets defensive efficiency. Percentiles run from 0 to 100.

When Missouri has the ball

Missouri offense: 64th
Ole Miss defense: 22nd

Show the underlying numbers

Missouri offensive per play: 0.2064th percentile · #45 nationally
Ole Miss PPA allowed per play: 0.1522nd percentile · #104 nationally
Missouri: 43%42nd percentile · #80 nationally
Ole Miss success rate allowed: 45%16th percentile · #116 nationally
Missouri points per game: 35.877th percentile · #33 nationally
Ole Miss points allowed per game: 28.020th percentile · #108 nationally

PPA and success rate: CFBD, 2026 season to date, garbage time included. Points per game: 2026 games so far. Percentiles and ranks are among 2026 teams.

Missouri offense · Last 6 games · garbage time excluded

Explosiveness: 1.29
Rush success: 38.8%

Ole Miss defense · Last 5 games · garbage time excluded

Explosiveness allowed: 1.20
Rush success allowed: 46.3%

When Ole Miss has the ball

Ole Miss offense: 82nd
Missouri defense: 74th

Show the underlying numbers

Ole Miss offensive PPA per play: 0.2782nd percentile · #25 nationally
Missouri PPA allowed per play: −0.0274th percentile · #33 nationally
Ole Miss success rate: 53%98th percentile · #4 nationally
Missouri success rate allowed: 35%85th percentile · #21 nationally
Ole Miss points per game: 38.885th percentile · #22 nationally
Missouri points allowed per game: 17.780th percentile · #29 nationally

PPA and success rate: CFBD, 2026 season to date, garbage time included. Points per game: 2026 games so far. Percentiles and ranks are among 2026 FBS teams.

Ole Miss offense · Last 5 games · garbage time excluded

Explosiveness: 1.16
Rush success: 51.7%

Missouri defense · 5 of the last 6 games · garbage time excluded

Explosiveness allowed: 1.35
Rush success allowed: 33.8%

Defense is oriented so a higher percentile is stronger.

Where they attack.

Follow the direction. Check the production.

Share of charted attemptsDirectional schematic

Offense moving upfield ↑

Select left, middle or right. The paths show direction only; alignment, routes and throw depth are schematic.

Austin Simmons · 89% of charted pass attempts

Throwing left

Share of charted plays: 43%
Usage: charted in this direction: 57 attempts
Yards / attempt: 7.7; over 57 attempts with a result
Completion rate: 63%; over 57 attempts with a result

134 of 135 have a direction · 1 unknown, excluded · rounded

Charted 5 of 6 games

Efficiency charted in 5 of 6 games

Depth as written in the play-by-play: 110 short · 24 deep · 1 not stated

What to watch

Most charted attempts go left (43%). Middle gives the most yards per attempt: 10.6 over 34 attempts with a result.

Who's driving the offense?

The Missouri offense in 2026

Austin Simmons

QB · 6 games

Photo: ESPN

106/164 · 65% season

Passing yards: 1,417
Touchdowns: 14
Interception: 1

Last game

Texas A&M · Oct 10, 2026: 14/28, 147 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT

Jamal Roberts

RB · 6 games

Photo: ESPN

Carries: 147
Rushing yards: 828
Touchdowns: 8

Last game

Texas A&M · Oct 10, 2026: 34 carries, 222 yds, 2 TD

Cayden Lee

WR · 6 games

Photo: ESPN

Receptions: 40
Receiving yards: 590
Touchdowns: 5

Last game

Texas A&M · Oct 10, 2026: 7 rec, 94 yds, 1 TD

Missouri player tables

Who is producing

Missouri player production

2026 evidence · 6 games in this window · 6 with recorded rows in this view

Missouri — Passing production
Player
Austin SimmonsQB	6	106 / 164	1,417	8.6	14	1
Matt ZollersQB	2	8 / 13	87	6.7	0	0
Nick EversQB	1	1 / 2	18	9.0	0	0
Donovan OlugbodeWR	1	0 / 1	0	0.0	0	0

4 players with recorded rows

Rows are recorded player-game box lines for the games listed above. A missing row is missing data, not proof that a player did not appear, and none of these figures describe targets, snaps, starters or availability.

Ole Miss player tables

Who is producing

Ole Miss player production

2026 evidence · 5 games in this window · 5 with recorded rows in this view

Ole Miss — Passing production
Player
Trinidad ChamblissQB	5	122 / 174	1,435	8.2	11	4
Deuce KnightQB	1	4 / 8	68	8.5	0	1

2 players with recorded rows

In the trenches

Missouri's line averages 309.3 lbs against Ole Miss's 284.1 lbs front — an edge of 25.2 lbs a man.

Typical FBS gap: 31.7 lbs.

Roster size is context. It isn't a forecast advantage.

Matchup	O-line	D-line
Missouri OLMissouri OL vs Ole Miss DL	309.3 lbs	284.1 lbs
Ole Miss OLOle Miss OL vs Missouri DL	310.0 lbs	274.6 lbs

Missouri
Ole Miss

Average listed roster weight, 2026 · bars run from 0 to 350 lbs.

How these teams stack up

2026 season. Percentiles and ranks are among 2026 FBS teams.

Missouri

Points per game: 35.8#33 nationally · 77th percentile · 6 games
Points allowed per game: 17.7#29 nationally · 80th percentile · 6 games
Returning production: 42% of 2025 PPA returns · 55th percentile
Upperclassmen: 60% · 113 of 113 with a class year

Ole Miss

Points per game: 38.8#22 nationally · 85th percentile · 5 games
Points allowed per game: 28.0#108 nationally · 20th percentile · 5 games
Returning production: 50% of 2025 PPA returns · 60th percentile
Upperclassmen: 41% · 123 of 123 with a class year

Recruiting

Missouri

2026 signing class · #34 nationally: 76th percentile · 225.1 pts
4-year recruiting composite (Saturday Bias) · classes 2023–2026 · #23 nationally: 84th percentile · 0.82 (0 is the FBS average)
Roster talent (CFBD Team Talent) · 2026 · #19 nationally: 87th percentile · 808.4

Ole Miss

2026 signing class · #22 nationally: 85th percentile · 236.7 pts
4-year recruiting composite (Saturday Bias) · classes 2023–2026 · #20 nationally: 86th percentile · 1.00 (0 is the FBS average)
Roster talent (CFBD Team Talent) · 2026 · #14 nationally: 91st percentile · 885.7

Recruited classes aren't the roster that takes the field.

Season percentile profiles

Season percentiles · outward is stronger · recruiting and experience are context, not forecast weights

Missouri: solid line, circles · Ole Miss: dashed line, squares

Missouri

Offense · 2026: 33.0 · 77th percentile; CFBD, 2026 season to date
Defense · SP+ 2026: 14.9 · 93rd percentile; CFBD, 2026 season to date
Special teams · SP+ 2026: −0.1 · 28th percentile; CFBD, 2026 season to date
Recruiting · 2026 signing class: 225.1 pts · 76th percentile; CFBD, 2026 signing class
Experience · returning production 2026: 42% returning · 55th percentile; CFBD, 2026 roster

Ole Miss

Offense · SP+ 2026: 39.9 · 96th percentile; CFBD, 2026 season to date
Defense · SP+ 2026: 24.4 · 59th percentile; CFBD, 2026 season to date
Special teams · SP+ 2026: 0.5 · 99th percentile; CFBD, 2026 season to date
Recruiting · 2026 signing class: 236.7 pts · 85th percentile; CFBD, 2026 signing class
Experience · returning production 2026: 50% returning · 60th percentile; CFBD, 2026 roster

Missouri's recent games

Most recent completed 2026 games · play stats exclude garbage time

Oct 10 · 75 recorded plays
vs Texas A&M
W 27–6
36%
Success rate
0.03
PPA / play
Oct 3 · 56 recorded plays
vs Florida
W 45–17
52%
Success rate
0.42
PPA / play
Sep 26 · 77 recorded plays
at Mississippi State
L 24–31
44%
Success rate
0.12
PPA / play

The coaching staff

Missouri

Head coach: Eli Drinkwitz
career +9.9 SP+ overall
Offensive coordinator: Chip Lindsey
career +29.7 SP+ offense
Photo: Bobak Ha'Eri, CC BY 3.0
Defensive coordinator: Corey Batoon
career +21.1 SP+ defense

Ole Miss

Head coach: Pete Golding
no career rating on file
Offensive coordinator: Cody Woodiel
Co-offensive coordinator · career +34.0 SP+ offense; John David Baker
career +34.0 SP+ offense
Defensive coordinator: Bryan Brown
career +24.1 SP+ defense; Marcus Woodson
Co-defensive coordinator · career +24.1 SP+ defense

Head-to-head

Missouri leads 4–0 since 2000

2019 · Missouri 38, Ole Miss 27
Memorial Stadium
2013 · Missouri 24, Ole Miss 10
Vaught-Hemingway Stadium
2007 · Missouri 38, Ole Miss 25
Vaught-Hemingway Stadium
2006 · Missouri 34, Ole Miss 7
Memorial Stadium

Evidence and sources

Evidence window: 2026 season to date

Missouri: 6 games
Ole Miss: 5 games

Forecast: 2026 game forecast · this game · Saturday Bias
Weather: 2026 game forecast · this game · NWS
The game in a minute: 2026 season to date, garbage time included · compared with 2026 FBS teams · CFBD
When each team has the ball: 2026 season to date, garbage time included · compared with 2026 FBS teams · CFBD
Where they attack: 2026 season to date, garbage time included, regular season only · per team, not ranked · NCAA
Featured players: 2026 season to date, garbage time included · per team, not ranked · CFBD
In the trenches: 2026 roster snapshot · compared with 2026 FBS teams · CFBD
Team profiles: 2026 season to date · compared with 2026 FBS teams · CFBD
Recent games: 2026 recent games, garbage time excluded · this game · CFBD
Coaching staff: 2026 coaching staff · per team, not ranked · CFBD (head coaches, SP+) and Wikipedia (coordinators)
Head-to-head: completed meetings since 2000 · games between these two programs · CFBD

Compare these teams

Game forecast

The game in a minute

Missouri's offense leads its matchup in scoring

Ole Miss has no clear answer on this matchup

The forecast comes with a range

When each team has the ball

When Missouri has the ball

Missouri offense · Last 6 games · garbage time excluded

Ole Miss defense · Last 5 games · garbage time excluded

When Ole Miss has the ball

Ole Miss offense · Last 5 games · garbage time excluded

Missouri defense · 5 of the last 6 games · garbage time excluded

Where they attack.

Throwing left

Who's driving the offense?

Austin Simmons

Jamal Roberts

Cayden Lee

Missouri player production

Ole Miss player production

In the trenches

How these teams stack up

Missouri

Ole Miss

Recruiting

Missouri

Ole Miss

Season percentile profiles

Missouri

Ole Miss

Missouri's recent games

vs Texas A&M

vs Florida

at Mississippi State

The coaching staff

Missouri

Ole Miss

Head-to-head

Evidence and sources