2026 LSU vs 2026 Louisiana Tech
Hypothetical
97% to win
High confidence — 5 games in — see our accuracy
Hypothetical forecast · SBR sbr-2r
Why this number
How they're built
0–100 percentile · higher is stronger
Compare the whole profile, then explore each dimension.
- 2026 LSU Offense · SP+ 2026: 36.7, 91st percentile (2026 season to date)
- 2026 Louisiana Tech Offense · SP+ 2026: 25.8, 40th percentile (2026 season to date)
- 2026 LSU Defense · SP+ 2026: 14.9, 93rd percentile (2026 season to date)
- 2026 Louisiana Tech Defense · SP+ 2026: 31.5, 20th percentile (2026 season to date)
- 2026 LSU Special teams · SP+ 2026: −0.1, 28th percentile (2026 season to date)
- 2026 Louisiana Tech Special teams · SP+ 2026: −0.2, 20th percentile (2026 season to date)
- 2026 LSU Recruiting · 2026 signing class: 272.7 pts, 93rd percentile (2026 signing class)
- 2026 Louisiana Tech Recruiting · 2026 signing class: 177.0 pts, 28th percentile (2026 signing class)
- 2026 LSU Experience · returning production 2026: 21% returning, 29th percentile (2026 roster)
- 2026 Louisiana Tech Experience · returning production 2026: 64% returning, 73rd percentile (2026 roster)
Offensive production relative to that season’s field. Compare an offense with the opposing defense in the scouting report.
Recruiting and experience add context; the five axes aren't equal weights in the forecast.
The numbers behind the profiles
| Measure | 2026 LSU | 2026 Louisiana Tech |
|---|---|---|
| Offensive / play | 0.2681st percentile | 0.1239th percentile |
| PPA allowed / play | −0.1093rd percentile | 0.0555th percentile |
| Points per game | 42.094th percentile6 games | 35.273rd percentile5 games |
| per game | 18.577th percentile6 games | 29.416th percentile5 games |
Programs don't stand still
SP+ percentile among FBS teams, by season. The marked point is each compared season.
Momentum
Talent in, results out
Recruiting-class percentile feeding each roster, compared with its SP+ result.
- Average signing-class percentile, classes 2023–2026
- 94th percentile
- SP+ percentile, 2026
- 94th percentile
- Average signing-class percentile, classes 2023–2026
- 26th percentile
- SP+ percentile, 2026
- 31st percentile
Campus distance
170 miles apart
There's more to the matchup.
Supporting context, ready when you want it.
In the trenches · both directions
| Matchup | O-line | D-line |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 LSU OL vs 2026 Louisiana Tech DL | 305.7 lbs | 267.4 lbs |
| 2026 Louisiana Tech OL vs 2026 LSU DL | 298.6 lbs | 274.7 lbs |
2026 LSU line yards 3.09 · 2026 Louisiana Tech stuff rate 22.4%
2026 Louisiana Tech line yards 2.69 · 2026 LSU stuff rate 24.7%
Fans swear big lines win games. They're half right — big-line teams do win more, but only because good programs recruit big linemen. Once we account for talent and last season, line size adds nothing to the prediction. Across 11 seasons, no measurable effect on margin.
Roster size is context. It isn't a forecast advantage.
Backtested effect: 0.42 pts at 1σ.
Head-to-head · LSU leads 6–0 since 2000
LSU has won 6 straight
| Season | Score | Venue |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | LSU 45–14 Louisiana Tech | Tiger Stadium (LA) · LSU home |
| 2025 | LSU 23–7 Louisiana Tech | Tiger Stadium (LA) · LSU home |
| 2018 | LSU 38–21 Louisiana Tech | Tiger Stadium (LA) · LSU home |
| 2009 | LSU 24–16 Louisiana Tech | Tiger Stadium (LA) · LSU home |
| 2007 | LSU 58–10 Louisiana Tech | Tiger Stadium (LA) · LSU home |
| 2003 | LSU 49–10 Louisiana Tech | Tiger Stadium (LA) · LSU home |
Coaching & program context
HC
- Lane Kiffin (First season as LSU's head coach)
OC
- Charlie Weis Jr.
- Joe Cox (co-OC)
career average +33.8 SP+ offense
Scheme: Veer and shoot (listed on Wikipedia)
Style: Balanced, up-tempo (threw on 44% of its run–pass plays, 40th percentile of 2026 FBS; 82.0 plays a game, 99th percentile)
DC
- Blake Baker
- Chris Kiffin (co-DC)
career average +25.5 SP+ defense
Scheme: 4–3 (listed on Wikipedia)
HC
- Sonny Cumbie
OC
- Nathan Young
career average +15.9 SP+ offense
Scheme: Spread (listed on Wikipedia)
Style: Balanced, average pace (threw on 48% of its run–pass plays, 64th percentile of 2026 FBS; 66.2 plays a game, 42nd percentile)
DC
- Luke Olson
career average +31.3 SP+ defense
Scheme: 3–3–5 (listed on Wikipedia)
A new coordinator feels like it should swing a game. Across 11 seasons, the change doesn't move the final margin beyond what the roster already tells us. Shown as context, not a factor in our number.
Run-heavy team meets a defense that can't stop the run — feels like extra points waiting. Across 7 seasons the matchup adds nothing beyond what the two ratings already say; if anything the point estimate leans the other way.
Scouting reports
No upcoming game between these teams is on the schedule.
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