Saturday, October 17

LSU

4–2 · AP #22

Mississippi State

4–1 · AP #16

12:00 PM ET11:00 AM CTTiger Stadium (LA)Baton Rouge, LA

Weather

Clear72°FNE 14 mphGusts 21 mphPrecip 1%

At kickoff · 11:00 AM CT · Updated 1:57 PM CT · National Weather Service

Hour by hour

Baton Rouge · local time (CT)

Kickoff hour

Clear72°FNE 14 mphGusts 21 mphPrecip 1%

Weather is not an input to the SBR forecast.

Game forecast

75%

LSU win probability

Mississippi State 25%

LSU by 9.9

Projected margin

Margin uncertainty ±14.4 points

Published forecast · SBR sbr-2r · Model track record

The game in a minute

01 · LSU's case

LSU's offense leads its matchup in scoring

LSU's offense is in the 94th percentile for points per game this season. Mississippi State's defense is in the 20th percentile for per game.

See the underlying numbers

02 · Mississippi State's answer

Mississippi State has no clear answer on this matchup

None of its defense's numbers stands out against LSU's offense.

03 · What could swing it

The forecast comes with a range

The model gives LSU a 75% chance to win and predicts LSU by 9.9 points. That margin has an uncertainty of ±14.4 points.

See the forecast

When each team has the ball

Offensive efficiency meets defensive efficiency. Percentiles run from 0 to 100.

When LSU has the ball

LSU offense: 81st
Mississippi State defense: 36th

Show the underlying numbers

LSU offensive per play: 0.2681st percentile · #27 nationally
Mississippi State PPA allowed per play: 0.0936th percentile · #81 nationally
LSU: 50%91st percentile · #14 nationally
Mississippi State success rate allowed: 41%43rd percentile · #79 nationally
LSU points per game: 42.094th percentile · #9 nationally
Mississippi State points allowed per game: 28.020th percentile · #108 nationally

PPA and success rate: CFBD, 2026 season to date, garbage time included. Points per game: 2026 games so far. Percentiles and ranks are among 2026 teams.

LSU offense · Last 6 games · garbage time excluded

Explosiveness: 1.24
Rush success: 46.4%

Mississippi State defense · Last 5 games · garbage time excluded

Explosiveness allowed: 1.18
Rush success allowed: 41.9%

When Mississippi State has the ball

Mississippi State offense: 83rd
LSU defense: 93rd

Show the underlying numbers

Mississippi State offensive PPA per play: 0.2883rd percentile · #22 nationally
LSU PPA allowed per play: −0.1093rd percentile · #8 nationally
Mississippi State success rate: 48%80th percentile · #29 nationally
LSU success rate allowed: 32%99th percentile · #3 nationally
Mississippi State points per game: 39.086th percentile · #20 nationally
LSU points allowed per game: 18.577th percentile · #32 nationally

PPA and success rate: CFBD, 2026 season to date, garbage time included. Points per game: 2026 games so far. Percentiles and ranks are among 2026 FBS teams.

Mississippi State offense · Last 5 games · garbage time excluded

Explosiveness: 1.30
Rush success: 49.8%

LSU defense · 5 of the last 6 games · garbage time excluded

Explosiveness allowed: 1.25
Rush success allowed: 29.3%

Defense is oriented so a higher percentile is stronger.

Where they attack.

Follow the direction. Check the production.

Share of charted attemptsDirectional schematic

Offense moving upfield ↑

Select left, middle or right. The paths show direction only; alignment, routes and throw depth are schematic.

Sam Leavitt · 71% of charted pass attempts

Throwing right

Share of charted plays: 45%
Usage: charted in this direction: 50 attempts
Yards / attempt: 10.1; over 50 attempts with a result
Completion rate: 70%; over 50 attempts with a result

110 of 115 have a direction · 5 unknown, excluded · rounded

Charted 5 of 6 games

Efficiency charted in 5 of 6 games

Depth as written in the play-by-play: 94 short · 16 deep · 5 not stated

What to watch

Most charted attempts go right (45%). Middle gives the most yards per attempt: 10.5 over 25 attempts with a result.

Who's driving the offense?

The LSU offense in 2026

Sam Leavitt

QB · 6 games

Photo: ESPN

117/173 · 68% season

Passing yards: 1,495
Touchdowns: 10
Interceptions: 8

Last game

Kentucky · Oct 10, 2026: 25/34, 275 yds, 2 TD, 1 INT

Dilin Jones

RB · 6 games

Photo: ESPN

Carries: 110
Rushing yards: 483
Touchdowns: 5

Last game

Kentucky · Oct 10, 2026: 16 carries, 56 yds, 0 TD

Winston Watkins

WR · 6 games

Receptions: 29
Receiving yards: 416
Touchdowns: 2

Last game

Kentucky · Oct 10, 2026: 6 rec, 62 yds, 0 TD

LSU player tables

Who is producing

LSU player production

2026 evidence · 6 games in this window · 6 with recorded rows in this view

LSU — Passing production
Player
Sam LeavittQB	6	117 / 173	1,495	8.6	10	8
Landen ClarkQB	4	14 / 31	235	7.6	1	0
Husan LongstreetQB	2	7 / 10	95	9.5	0	0
Jackson HarrisWR	1	1 / 1	41	41.0	1	0

4 players with recorded rows

Rows are recorded player-game box lines for the games listed above. A missing row is missing data, not proof that a player did not appear, and none of these figures describe targets, snaps, starters or availability.

Mississippi State player tables

Who is producing

Mississippi State player production

2026 evidence · 5 games in this window · 5 with recorded rows in this view

Mississippi State — Passing production
Player
Kamario TaylorQB	5	102 / 154	1,450	9.4	17	4
Parker PuckettQB	2	8 / 14	89	6.4	0	0
Gracen HarrisWR	1	1 / 1	7	7.0	1	0

3 players with recorded rows

In the trenches

LSU's line averages 305.7 lbs against Mississippi State's 286.9 lbs front — an edge of 18.8 lbs a man.

Typical FBS gap: 31.7 lbs.

Roster size is context. It isn't a forecast advantage.

Matchup	O-line	D-line
LSU OLLSU OL vs Mississippi State DL	305.7 lbs	286.9 lbs
Mississippi State OLMississippi State OL vs LSU DL	323.2 lbs	274.7 lbs

LSU
Mississippi State

Average listed roster weight, 2026 · bars run from 0 to 350 lbs.

How these teams stack up

2026 season. Percentiles and ranks are among 2026 FBS teams.

LSU

Points per game: 42.0#9 nationally · 94th percentile · 6 games
Points allowed per game: 18.5#32 nationally · 77th percentile · 6 games
Returning production: 21% of 2025 PPA returns · 29th percentile
Upperclassmen: 42% · 113 of 113 with a class year

Mississippi State

Points per game: 39.0#20 nationally · 86th percentile · 5 games
Points allowed per game: 28.0#108 nationally · 20th percentile · 5 games
Returning production: 34% of 2025 PPA returns · 39th percentile
Upperclassmen: 44% · 117 of 117 with a class year

Recruiting

LSU

2026 signing class · #11 nationally: 93rd percentile · 272.7 pts
4-year recruiting composite (Saturday Bias) · classes 2023–2026 · #10 nationally: 93rd percentile · 1.72 (0 is the FBS average)
Roster talent (CFBD Team Talent) · 2026 · #8 nationally: 95th percentile · 931.8

Mississippi State

2026 signing class · #23 nationally: 84th percentile · 230.6 pts
4-year recruiting composite (Saturday Bias) · classes 2023–2026 · #25 nationally: 82nd percentile · 0.73 (0 is the FBS average)
Roster talent (CFBD Team Talent) · 2026 · #20 nationally: 86th percentile · 804.5

Recruited classes aren't the roster that takes the field.

Season percentile profiles

Season percentiles · outward is stronger · recruiting and experience are context, not forecast weights

LSU: solid line, circles · Mississippi State: dashed line, squares

LSU

Offense · 2026: 36.7 · 91st percentile; CFBD, 2026 season to date
Defense · SP+ 2026: 14.9 · 93rd percentile; CFBD, 2026 season to date
Special teams · SP+ 2026: −0.1 · 28th percentile; CFBD, 2026 season to date
Recruiting · 2026 signing class: 272.7 pts · 93rd percentile; CFBD, 2026 signing class
Experience · returning production 2026: 21% returning · 29th percentile; CFBD, 2026 roster

Mississippi State

Offense · SP+ 2026: 37.8 · 92nd percentile; CFBD, 2026 season to date
Defense · SP+ 2026: 25.5 · 53rd percentile; CFBD, 2026 season to date
Special teams · SP+ 2026: 0.3 · 80th percentile; CFBD, 2026 season to date
Recruiting · 2026 signing class: 230.6 pts · 84th percentile; CFBD, 2026 signing class
Experience · returning production 2026: 34% returning · 39th percentile; CFBD, 2026 roster

LSU's recent games

Most recent completed 2026 games · play stats exclude garbage time

Oct 10 · 72 recorded plays
at Kentucky
L 34–35
50%
Success rate
0.11
PPA / play
Oct 3 · 52 recorded plays
vs McNeese
vs FCS
W 63–14
62%
Success rate
0.42
PPA / play
Sep 26 · 44 recorded plays
vs Texas A&M
W 35–6
48%
Success rate
0.49
PPA / play

The coaching staff

LSU

Head coach: Lane Kiffin
First season as LSU's head coach · career +15.0 SP+ overall
Photo: Bobak Ha'Eri, CC BY 3.0
Offensive coordinator: Charlie Weis Jr.
career +33.8 SP+ offense; Joe Cox
Co-offensive coordinator · career +33.8 SP+ offense
Photo: Gamecock Central, CC BY 2.0
Defensive coordinator: Blake Baker
career +25.5 SP+ defense; Chris Kiffin
Co-defensive coordinator · career +25.5 SP+ defense

Mississippi State

Head coach: Jeff Lebby
career 0.0 SP+ overall
Photo: Bobak Ha'Eri, CC BY 3.0
Offensive coordinator: Not on file
Defensive coordinator: Zach Arnett
career +19.2 SP+ defense

Head-to-head

LSU leads 21–3 since 2000

2023 · LSU 41, Mississippi State 14
Davis Wade Stadium
2022 · LSU 31, Mississippi State 16
Tiger Stadium (LA)
2021 · LSU 28, Mississippi State 25
Davis Wade Stadium
2020 · Mississippi State 44, LSU 34
Tiger Stadium (LA)
2019 · LSU 36, Mississippi State 13
Davis Wade Stadium
2018 · LSU 19, Mississippi State 3
Tiger Stadium (LA)
2017 · Mississippi State 37, LSU 7
Davis Wade Stadium
2016 · LSU 23, Mississippi State 20
Tiger Stadium (LA)
2015 · LSU 21, Mississippi State 19
Davis Wade Stadium
2014 · Mississippi State 34, LSU 29
Tiger Stadium (LA)
2013 · LSU 59, Mississippi State 26
Davis Wade Stadium
2012 · LSU 37, Mississippi State 17
Tiger Stadium (LA)
2011 · LSU 19, Mississippi State 6
Davis Wade Stadium
2010 · LSU 29, Mississippi State 7
Tiger Stadium (LA)
2009 · LSU 30, Mississippi State 26
Davis Wade Stadium
2008 · LSU 34, Mississippi State 24
Tiger Stadium (LA)
2007 · LSU 45, Mississippi State 0
Davis Wade Stadium
2006 · LSU 48, Mississippi State 17
Tiger Stadium (LA)
2005 · LSU 37, Mississippi State 7
Davis Wade Stadium
2004 · LSU 51, Mississippi State 0
Tiger Stadium (LA)
2003 · LSU 41, Mississippi State 6
Davis Wade Stadium
2002 · LSU 31, Mississippi State 13
Tiger Stadium (LA)
2001 · LSU 42, Mississippi State 0
2000 · LSU 45, Mississippi State 38

Evidence and sources

Evidence window: 2026 season to date

LSU: 6 games
Mississippi State: 5 games

Forecast: 2026 game forecast · this game · Saturday Bias
Weather: 2026 game forecast · this game · NWS
The game in a minute: 2026 season to date, garbage time included · compared with 2026 FBS teams · CFBD
When each team has the ball: 2026 season to date, garbage time included · compared with 2026 FBS teams · CFBD
Where they attack: 2026 season to date, garbage time included, regular season only · per team, not ranked · NCAA
Featured players: 2026 season to date, garbage time included · per team, not ranked · CFBD
In the trenches: 2026 roster snapshot · compared with 2026 FBS teams · CFBD
Team profiles: 2026 season to date · compared with 2026 FBS teams · CFBD
Recent games: 2026 recent games, garbage time excluded · this game · CFBD
Coaching staff: 2026 coaching staff · per team, not ranked · CFBD (head coaches, SP+) and Wikipedia (coordinators)
Head-to-head: completed meetings since 2000 · games between these two programs · CFBD

Compare these teams

Game forecast

The game in a minute

LSU's offense leads its matchup in scoring

Mississippi State has no clear answer on this matchup

The forecast comes with a range

When each team has the ball

When LSU has the ball

LSU offense · Last 6 games · garbage time excluded

Mississippi State defense · Last 5 games · garbage time excluded

When Mississippi State has the ball

Mississippi State offense · Last 5 games · garbage time excluded

LSU defense · 5 of the last 6 games · garbage time excluded

Where they attack.

Throwing right

Who's driving the offense?

Sam Leavitt

Dilin Jones

Winston Watkins

LSU player production

Mississippi State player production

In the trenches

How these teams stack up

LSU

Mississippi State

Recruiting

LSU

Mississippi State

Season percentile profiles

LSU

Mississippi State

LSU's recent games

at Kentucky

vs McNeese

vs Texas A&M

The coaching staff

LSU

Mississippi State

Head-to-head

Evidence and sources