2026 Houston vs 2026 Oklahoma State
Hypothetical
76% to win
High confidence — 5 games in — see our accuracy
Hypothetical forecast · SBR sbr-2r
Why this number
How they're built
0–100 percentile · higher is stronger
Compare the whole profile, then explore each dimension.
- 2026 Houston Offense · SP+ 2026: 36.6, 90th percentile (2026 season to date)
- 2026 Oklahoma State Offense · SP+ 2026: 34.5, 84th percentile (2026 season to date)
- 2026 Houston Defense · SP+ 2026: 21.5, 74th percentile (2026 season to date)
- 2026 Oklahoma State Defense · SP+ 2026: 21.5, 74th percentile (2026 season to date)
- 2026 Houston Special teams · SP+ 2026: 0.0, 37th percentile (2026 season to date)
- 2026 Oklahoma State Special teams · SP+ 2026: 0.3, 80th percentile (2026 season to date)
- 2026 Houston Recruiting · 2026 signing class: 218.8 pts, 73rd percentile (2026 signing class)
- 2026 Oklahoma State Recruiting · 2026 signing class: 190.3 pts, 50th percentile (2026 signing class)
- 2026 Houston Experience · returning production 2026: 81% returning, 93rd percentile (2026 roster)
- 2026 Oklahoma State Experience · returning production 2026: 0% returning, 0th percentile (2026 roster)
Offensive production relative to that season’s field. Compare an offense with the opposing defense in the scouting report.
Recruiting and experience add context; the five axes aren't equal weights in the forecast.
The numbers behind the profiles
| Measure | 2026 Houston | 2026 Oklahoma State |
|---|---|---|
| Offensive / play | 0.3697th percentile | 0.1753rd percentile |
| PPA allowed / play | 0.0936th percentile | 0.0262nd percentile |
| Points per game | 40.090th percentile6 games | 38.283rd percentile5 games |
| per game | 19.273rd percentile6 games | 21.464th percentile5 games |
Programs don't stand still
SP+ percentile among FBS teams, by season. The marked point is each compared season.
Momentum
Talent in, results out
Recruiting-class percentile feeding each roster, compared with its SP+ result.
- Average signing-class percentile, classes 2023–2026
- 62nd percentile
- SP+ percentile, 2026
- 86th percentile
- Average signing-class percentile, classes 2023–2026
- 58th percentile
- SP+ percentile, 2026
- 85th percentile
Campus distance
455 miles apart
There's more to the matchup.
Supporting context, ready when you want it.
In the trenches · both directions
| Matchup | O-line | D-line |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 Houston OL vs 2026 Oklahoma State DL | 306.2 lbs | 280.3 lbs |
| 2026 Oklahoma State OL vs 2026 Houston DL | 310.3 lbs | 294.1 lbs |
2026 Houston line yards 3.70 · 2026 Oklahoma State stuff rate 18.0%
2026 Oklahoma State line yards 3.19 · 2026 Houston stuff rate 22.2%
Fans swear big lines win games. They're half right — big-line teams do win more, but only because good programs recruit big linemen. Once we account for talent and last season, line size adds nothing to the prediction. Across 11 seasons, no measurable effect on margin.
Roster size is context. It isn't a forecast advantage.
Backtested effect: 0.42 pts at 1σ.
Head-to-head · Houston leads 3–2 since 2000
Houston has won 1 straight
| Season | Score | Venue |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 | Houston 39–17 Oklahoma State | Boone Pickens Stadium · Oklahoma State home |
| 2023 | Houston 30–43 Oklahoma State | TDECU Stadium · Houston home |
| 2009 | Houston 45–35 Oklahoma State | Boone Pickens Stadium · Oklahoma State home |
| 2008 | Houston 37–56 Oklahoma State | Boone Pickens Stadium · Oklahoma State home |
| 2006 | Houston 34–25 Oklahoma State | Robertson Stadium · Houston home |
Coaching & program context
HC
- Willie Fritz
OC
- Slade Nagle
career average +29.0 SP+ offense
Scheme: Spread (listed on Wikipedia, 2025 listing)
Style: Run-heavy, up-tempo (threw on 41% of its run–pass plays, 23rd percentile of 2026 FBS; 72.2 plays a game, 84th percentile)
DC
- Austin Armstrong
career average +23.0 SP+ defense
Scheme: 3–3–5 (listed on Wikipedia, 2025 listing)
HC
- Eric Morris (First season as Oklahoma State's head coach)
OC
- Sean Brophy
no career track record on file
Scheme: Air raid (listed on Wikipedia)
Style: Balanced, up-tempo (threw on 47% of its run–pass plays, 58th percentile of 2026 FBS; 76.6 plays a game, 96th percentile)
DC
- Skyler Cassity
career average +26.2 SP+ defense
Scheme: 3–4 (listed on Wikipedia)
A new coordinator feels like it should swing a game. Across 11 seasons, the change doesn't move the final margin beyond what the roster already tells us. Shown as context, not a factor in our number.
Run-heavy team meets a defense that can't stop the run — feels like extra points waiting. Across 7 seasons the matchup adds nothing beyond what the two ratings already say; if anything the point estimate leans the other way.
Watching the next one?
Oklahoma State at Houston · October 17, 2026
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