2026 Houston vs 2026 Oklahoma State

Published

Houston by 15.0

85% to win

Published forecast · SBR sbr-2r

View scouting report

Why this number

HoustonPreseason baseline +9.4In-season results +5.8

Oklahoma StateIn-season results +7.9Preseason baseline −5.3

Houston home field +2.5

How they're built

0–100 percentile · higher is stronger

Compare the whole profile, then explore each dimension.

Offensive production relative to that season’s field. Compare an offense with the opposing defense in the scouting report.

Recruiting and experience add context; the five axes aren't equal weights in the forecast.

The numbers behind the profiles

Measure	2026 Houston	2026 Oklahoma State
Offensive / play	0.3697th percentile	0.1753rd percentile
PPA allowed / play	0.0936th percentile	0.0262nd percentile
Points per game	40.090th percentile6 games	38.283rd percentile5 games
per game	19.273rd percentile6 games	21.464th percentile5 games

Programs don't stand still

SP+ percentile among FBS teams, by season. The marked point is each compared season.

2026 Houston2026 Oklahoma State

Momentum

Houston↗ rising (+63 pctl over 3 seasons)

Oklahoma State↗ rising (+45 pctl over 3 seasons)

Talent in, results out

Recruiting-class percentile feeding each roster, compared with its SP+ result.

2026 Houston

Average signing-class percentile, classes 2023–2026: 62nd percentile
SP+ percentile, 2026: 86th percentile

Outperforming its talent (+24)

2026 Oklahoma State

Average signing-class percentile, classes 2023–2026: 58th percentile
SP+ percentile, 2026: 85th percentile

Outperforming its talent (+27)

Campus distance

455 miles apart

There's more to the matchup.

Supporting context, ready when you want it.

In the trenches · both directions

Matchup	O-line	D-line
2026 Houston OL vs 2026 Oklahoma State DL	306.2 lbs	280.3 lbs
2026 Oklahoma State OL vs 2026 Houston DL	310.3 lbs	294.1 lbs

2026 Houston line yards 3.70 · 2026 Oklahoma State stuff rate 18.0%

2026 Oklahoma State line yards 3.19 · 2026 Houston stuff rate 22.2%

Fans swear big lines win games. They're half right — big-line teams do win more, but only because good programs recruit big linemen. Once we account for talent and last season, line size adds nothing to the prediction. Across 11 seasons, no measurable effect on margin.

Roster size is context. It isn't a forecast advantage.

Backtested effect: 0.42 pts at 1σ.

Head-to-head · Houston leads 3–2 since 2000

Houston has won 1 straight

Season	Score	Venue
2025	Houston 39–17 Oklahoma State	Boone Pickens Stadium · Oklahoma State home
2023	Houston 30–43 Oklahoma State	TDECU Stadium · Houston home
2009	Houston 45–35 Oklahoma State	Boone Pickens Stadium · Oklahoma State home
2008	Houston 37–56 Oklahoma State	Boone Pickens Stadium · Oklahoma State home
2006	Houston 34–25 Oklahoma State	Robertson Stadium · Houston home

Coaching & program context

2026 Houston

Willie Fritz

Slade Nagle

career average +29.0 SP+ offense

Scheme: Spread (listed on Wikipedia, 2025 listing)

Style: Run-heavy, up-tempo (threw on 41% of its run–pass plays, 23rd percentile of 2026 FBS; 72.2 plays a game, 84th percentile)

Austin Armstrong

career average +23.0 SP+ defense

Scheme: 3–3–5 (listed on Wikipedia, 2025 listing)

2026 Oklahoma State

Eric Morris (First season as Oklahoma State's head coach)

Sean Brophy

no career track record on file

Scheme: Air raid (listed on Wikipedia)

Style: Balanced, up-tempo (threw on 47% of its run–pass plays, 58th percentile of 2026 FBS; 76.6 plays a game, 96th percentile)

Skyler Cassity

career average +26.2 SP+ defense

Scheme: 3–4 (listed on Wikipedia)

A new coordinator feels like it should swing a game. Across 11 seasons, the change doesn't move the final margin beyond what the roster already tells us. Shown as context, not a factor in our number.

Run-heavy team meets a defense that can't stop the run — feels like extra points waiting. Across 7 seasons the matchup adds nothing beyond what the two ratings already say; if anything the point estimate leans the other way.