Saturday, October 17

Houston

5–1 · AP #20

Oklahoma State

4–1 · AP #18

7:30 PM ET6:30 PM CTTDECU StadiumHouston, TX

Weather

Clear75°FN 9 mphGusts 16 mphPrecip 2%

At kickoff · 6:30 PM CT · Updated 12:16 PM CT · National Weather Service

Hour by hour

Houston · local time (CT)

Kickoff hour

Clear75°FN 9 mphGusts 16 mphPrecip 2%

Weather is not an input to the SBR forecast.

Game forecast

85%

Houston win probability

Oklahoma State 15%

Houston by 15.0

Projected margin

Margin uncertainty ±14.3 points

Published forecast · SBR sbr-2r · Model track record

The game in a minute

01 · Houston's case

Houston's offense leads its matchup in

Houston's offense is in the 99th percentile for success rate this season. Oklahoma State's defense is in the 61st percentile for success rate allowed.

See the underlying numbers

02 · Oklahoma State's answer

Oklahoma State's offense leads its matchup in success rate

Oklahoma State's offense is in the 87th percentile for success rate this season. Houston's defense is in the 61st percentile for success rate allowed.

See the underlying numbers

03 · What could swing it

The forecast comes with a range

The model gives Houston a 85% chance to win and predicts Houston by 15.0 points. That margin has an uncertainty of ±14.3 points.

See the forecast

When each team has the ball

Offensive efficiency meets defensive efficiency. Percentiles run from 0 to 100.

When Houston has the ball

Houston offense: 97th
Oklahoma State defense: 62nd

Show the underlying numbers

Houston offensive per play: 0.3697th percentile · #5 nationally
Oklahoma State PPA allowed per play: 0.0262nd percentile · #49 nationally
Houston success rate: 55%99th percentile · #2 nationally
Oklahoma State success rate allowed: 39%61st percentile · #54 nationally
Houston points per game: 40.090th percentile · #15 nationally
Oklahoma State per game: 21.464th percentile · #49 nationally

PPA and success rate: CFBD, 2026 season to date, garbage time included. Points per game: 2026 games so far. Percentiles and ranks are among 2026 teams.

Houston offense · Last 6 games · garbage time excluded

Explosiveness: 1.10
Rush success: 51.6%

Oklahoma State defense · 4 of the last 5 games · garbage time excluded

Explosiveness allowed: 1.24
Rush success allowed: 43.1%

When Oklahoma State has the ball

Oklahoma State offense: 53rd
Houston defense: 36th

Show the underlying numbers

Oklahoma State offensive PPA per play: 0.1753rd percentile · #61 nationally
Houston PPA allowed per play: 0.0936th percentile · #81 nationally
Oklahoma State success rate: 50%87th percentile · #19 nationally
Houston success rate allowed: 39%61st percentile · #55 nationally
Oklahoma State points per game: 38.283rd percentile · #24 nationally
Houston points allowed per game: 19.273rd percentile · #37 nationally

PPA and success rate: CFBD, 2026 season to date, garbage time included. Points per game: 2026 games so far. Percentiles and ranks are among 2026 FBS teams.

Oklahoma State offense · Last 5 games · garbage time excluded

Explosiveness: 1.10
Rush success: 46.8%

Houston defense · 5 of the last 6 games · garbage time excluded

Explosiveness allowed: 1.35
Rush success allowed: 43.0%

Defense is oriented so a higher percentile is stronger.

Where they attack.

Follow the direction. Check the production.

Share of charted attemptsDirectional schematic

Offense moving upfield ↑

Select left, middle or right. The paths show direction only; alignment, routes and throw depth are schematic.

Conner Weigman · 94% of charted pass attempts

Throwing right

Share of charted plays: 44%
Usage: charted in this direction: 58 attempts
Yards / attempt: 10.7; over 58 attempts with a result
Completion rate: 71%; over 58 attempts with a result

131 of 132 have a direction · 1 unknown, excluded · rounded

Charted 5 of 6 games

Efficiency charted in 5 of 6 games

Depth as written in the play-by-play: 120 short · 11 deep · 1 not stated

Who's driving the offense?

The Houston offense in 2026

Conner Weigman

QB · 6 games

110/165 · 67% season

Passing yards: 1,427
Touchdowns: 15
Interception: 1

Last game

Kansas State · Oct 10, 2026: 19/30, 242 yds, 4 TD, 0 INT

Makhi Hughes

RB · 6 games

Photo: ESPN

Carries: 80
Rushing yards: 388
Touchdowns: 3

Last game

Kansas State · Oct 10, 2026: 14 carries, 78 yds, 1 TD

Patrick Overmyer

TE · 6 games

Photo: ESPN

Receptions: 33
Receiving yards: 399
Touchdowns: 6

Last game

Kansas State · Oct 10, 2026: 8 rec, 83 yds, 4 TD

Houston player tables

Who is producing

Houston player production

2026 evidence · 6 games in this window · 6 with recorded rows in this view

Houston — Passing production
Player
Conner WeigmanQB	6	110 / 165	1,427	8.6	15	1
Keisean HendersonQB	2	6 / 8	83	10.4	2	0

2 players with recorded rows

Rows are recorded player-game box lines for the games listed above. A missing row is missing data, not proof that a player did not appear, and none of these figures describe targets, snaps, starters or availability.

Oklahoma State player tables

Who is producing

Oklahoma State player production

2026 evidence · 5 games in this window · 5 with recorded rows in this view

Oklahoma State — Passing production
Player
Drew MestemakerQB	5	114 / 169	1,575	9.3	13	5
Broderick VehrsQB	1	6 / 6	37	6.2	1	0

2 players with recorded rows

In the trenches

Houston's line averages 306.2 lbs against Oklahoma State's 280.3 lbs front — an edge of 25.9 lbs a man.

Typical FBS gap: 31.7 lbs.

Roster size is context. It isn't a forecast advantage.

Matchup	O-line	D-line
Houston OLHouston OL vs Oklahoma State DL	306.2 lbs	280.3 lbs
Oklahoma State OLOklahoma State OL vs Houston DL	310.3 lbs	294.1 lbs

Houston
Oklahoma State

Average listed roster weight, 2026 · bars run from 0 to 350 lbs.

How these teams stack up

2026 season. Percentiles and ranks are among 2026 FBS teams.

Houston

Points per game: 40.0#15 nationally · 90th percentile · 6 games
Points allowed per game: 19.2#37 nationally · 73rd percentile · 6 games
Returning production: 81% of 2025 PPA returns · 93rd percentile
Upperclassmen: 54% · 119 of 119 with a class year

Oklahoma State

Points per game: 38.2#24 nationally · 83rd percentile · 5 games
Points allowed per game: 21.4#49 nationally · 64th percentile · 5 games
Returning production: 0% of 2025 PPA returns · 0th percentile
Upperclassmen: 56% · 117 of 117 with a class year

Recruiting

Houston

2026 signing class · #38 nationally: 73rd percentile · 218.8 pts
4-year recruiting composite (Saturday Bias) · classes 2023–2026 · #50 nationally: 64th percentile · 0.30 (0 is the FBS average)
Roster talent (CFBD Team Talent) · 2026 · #57 nationally: 59th percentile · 695.9

Oklahoma State

2026 signing class · #69 nationally: 50th percentile · 190.3 pts
4-year recruiting composite (Saturday Bias) · classes 2023–2026 · #62 nationally: 55th percentile · 0.05 (0 is the FBS average)
Roster talent (CFBD Team Talent) · 2026 · #65 nationally: 53rd percentile · 672.7

Recruited classes aren't the roster that takes the field.

Season percentile profiles

Season percentiles · outward is stronger · recruiting and experience are context, not forecast weights

Houston: solid line, circles · Oklahoma State: dashed line, squares

Houston

Offense · 2026: 36.6 · 90th percentile; CFBD, 2026 season to date
Defense · SP+ 2026: 21.5 · 74th percentile; CFBD, 2026 season to date
Special teams · SP+ 2026: 0.0 · 37th percentile; CFBD, 2026 season to date
Recruiting · 2026 signing class: 218.8 pts · 73rd percentile; CFBD, 2026 signing class
Experience · returning production 2026: 81% returning · 93rd percentile; CFBD, 2026 roster

Oklahoma State

Offense · SP+ 2026: 34.5 · 84th percentile; CFBD, 2026 season to date
Defense · SP+ 2026: 21.5 · 74th percentile; CFBD, 2026 season to date
Special teams · SP+ 2026: 0.3 · 80th percentile; CFBD, 2026 season to date
Recruiting · 2026 signing class: 190.3 pts · 50th percentile; CFBD, 2026 signing class
Experience · returning production 2026: 0% returning · 0th percentile; CFBD, 2026 roster

Houston's recent games

Most recent completed 2026 games · play stats exclude garbage time

Oct 10 · 69 recorded plays
at Kansas State
W 35–16
52%
Success rate
0.51
PPA / play
Oct 3 · 78 recorded plays
vs UCF
W 27–17
50%
Success rate
0.01
PPA / play
Sep 26 · 64 recorded plays
at Georgia Southern
W 42–28
59%
Success rate
0.48
PPA / play

The coaching staff

Houston

Head coach: Willie Fritz
career +0.3 SP+ overall
Photo: Bobak Ha'Eri, CC BY 3.0
Offensive coordinator: Slade Nagle
career +29.0 SP+ offense
Photo: KJ 26 88, CC0
Defensive coordinator: Austin Armstrong
career +23.0 SP+ defense
Photo: Tammy Anthony Baker, CC BY 2.0

Oklahoma State

Head coach: Eric Morris
First season as Oklahoma State's head coach · career +0.9 SP+ overall
Offensive coordinator: Sean Brophy
no career rating on file
Defensive coordinator: Skyler Cassity
career +26.2 SP+ defense

Head-to-head

Houston leads 3–2 since 2000

2025 · Houston 39, Oklahoma State 17
Boone Pickens Stadium
2023 · Oklahoma State 43, Houston 30
TDECU Stadium
2009 · Houston 45, Oklahoma State 35
Boone Pickens Stadium
2008 · Oklahoma State 56, Houston 37
Boone Pickens Stadium
2006 · Houston 34, Oklahoma State 25
Robertson Stadium

Evidence and sources

Evidence window: 2026 season to date

Houston: 6 games
Oklahoma State: 5 games

Forecast: 2026 game forecast · this game · Saturday Bias
Weather: 2026 game forecast · this game · NWS
The game in a minute: 2026 season to date, garbage time included · compared with 2026 FBS teams · CFBD
When each team has the ball: 2026 season to date, garbage time included · compared with 2026 FBS teams · CFBD
Where they attack: 2026 season to date, garbage time included, regular season only · per team, not ranked · NCAA
Featured players: 2026 season to date, garbage time included · per team, not ranked · CFBD
In the trenches: 2026 roster snapshot · compared with 2026 FBS teams · CFBD
Team profiles: 2026 season to date · compared with 2026 FBS teams · CFBD
Recent games: 2026 recent games, garbage time excluded · this game · CFBD
Coaching staff: 2026 coaching staff · per team, not ranked · CFBD (head coaches, SP+) and Wikipedia (coordinators)
Head-to-head: completed meetings since 2000 · games between these two programs · CFBD

Compare these teams

Game forecast

The game in a minute

Houston's offense leads its matchup in success rate

Oklahoma State's offense leads its matchup in success rate

The forecast comes with a range

When each team has the ball

When Houston has the ball

Houston offense · Last 6 games · garbage time excluded

Oklahoma State defense · 4 of the last 5 games · garbage time excluded

When Oklahoma State has the ball

Oklahoma State offense · Last 5 games · garbage time excluded

Houston defense · 5 of the last 6 games · garbage time excluded

Where they attack.

Throwing right

Who's driving the offense?

Conner Weigman

Makhi Hughes

Patrick Overmyer

Houston player production

Oklahoma State player production

In the trenches

How these teams stack up

Houston

Oklahoma State

Recruiting

Houston

Oklahoma State

Season percentile profiles

Houston

Oklahoma State

Houston's recent games

at Kansas State

vs UCF

at Georgia Southern

The coaching staff

Houston

Oklahoma State

Head-to-head

Evidence and sources

Houston's offense leads its matchup in