2026 Florida vs 2026 Auburn

Hypothetical

Florida by 5.5

65% to win

High confidence — 5 games in — see our accuracy

Hypothetical forecast · SBR sbr-2r

Why this number

FloridaPreseason baseline +14.0In-season results +1.9

AuburnPreseason baseline +12.4In-season results +0.5

Florida home field +2.5

How they're built

0–100 percentile · higher is stronger

Compare the whole profile, then explore each dimension.

Offensive production relative to that season’s field. Compare an offense with the opposing defense in the scouting report.

Recruiting and experience add context; the five axes aren't equal weights in the forecast.

The numbers behind the profiles

Measure	2026 Florida	2026 Auburn
Offensive / play	0.2883rd percentile	0.0727th percentile
PPA allowed / play	0.0936th percentile	0.0166th percentile
Points per game	41.792nd percentile6 games	26.839th percentile5 games
per game	29.018th percentile6 games	21.464th percentile5 games

Programs don't stand still

SP+ percentile among FBS teams, by season. The marked point is each compared season.

2026 Florida2026 Auburn

Momentum

Florida→ steady (−9 pctl over 3 seasons)

Auburn→ steady (+1 pctl over 3 seasons)

Talent in, results out

Recruiting-class percentile feeding each roster, compared with its SP+ result.

2026 Florida

Average signing-class percentile, classes 2023–2026: 91st percentile
SP+ percentile, 2026: 77th percentile

Underperforming its talent (−15)

2026 Auburn

Average signing-class percentile, classes 2023–2026: 88th percentile
SP+ percentile, 2026: 77th percentile

Underperforming its talent (−12)

Campus distance

275 miles apart

There's more to the matchup.

Supporting context, ready when you want it.

In the trenches · both directions

Matchup	O-line	D-line
2026 Florida OL vs 2026 Auburn DL	311.7 lbs	286.3 lbs
2026 Auburn OL vs 2026 Florida DL	315.2 lbs	293.9 lbs

2026 Florida line yards 2.93 · 2026 Auburn stuff rate 16.9%

2026 Auburn line yards 3.32 · 2026 Florida stuff rate 14.5%

Fans swear big lines win games. They're half right — big-line teams do win more, but only because good programs recruit big linemen. Once we account for talent and last season, line size adds nothing to the prediction. Across 11 seasons, no measurable effect on margin.

Roster size is context. It isn't a forecast advantage.

Backtested effect: 0.42 pts at 1σ.

Head-to-head · Florida leads 5–4 since 2000

Florida has won 2 straight

Season	Score	Venue
2026	Florida 44–39 Auburn	Jordan-Hare Stadium · Auburn home
2019	Florida 24–13 Auburn	Ben Hill Griffin Stadium · Florida home
2011	Florida 6–17 Auburn	Jordan-Hare Stadium · Auburn home
2007	Florida 17–20 Auburn	Ben Hill Griffin Stadium · Florida home
2006	Florida 17–27 Auburn	Jordan-Hare Stadium · Auburn home
2002	Florida 30–23 Auburn	Florida home
2001	Florida 20–23 Auburn	Jordan-Hare Stadium · Auburn home
2000bowl/playoff	Florida 28–6 Auburn	Neutral site
2000	Florida 38–7 Auburn	Florida home

Coaching & program context

2026 Florida

Jon Sumrall (First season as Florida's head coach)

Buster Faulkner

career average +28.2 SP+ offense

Scheme: Pro spread (listed on Wikipedia)

Style: Run-heavy, up-tempo (threw on 43% of its run–pass plays, 31st percentile of 2026 FBS; 71.2 plays a game, 77th percentile)

Brad White

career average +19.2 SP+ defense

Scheme: Multiple (listed on Wikipedia)

2026 Auburn

Alex Golesh (First season as Auburn's head coach)

Joel Gordon
Kodi Burns (co-OC)

career average +33.3 SP+ offense

Scheme: Veer and shoot (listed on Wikipedia)

Style: Balanced, up-tempo (threw on 47% of its run–pass plays, 53rd percentile of 2026 FBS; 70.2 plays a game, 70th percentile)

D. J. Durkin
Tim Banks (co-DC)

career average +23.9 SP+ defense

Scheme: Multiple (listed on Wikipedia)

A new coordinator feels like it should swing a game. Across 11 seasons, the change doesn't move the final margin beyond what the roster already tells us. Shown as context, not a factor in our number.

Run-heavy team meets a defense that can't stop the run — feels like extra points waiting. Across 7 seasons the matchup adds nothing beyond what the two ratings already say; if anything the point estimate leans the other way.