Saturday, October 17

Florida

4–2

Texas

4–1 · AP #7

12:00 PM ET11:00 AM CTDKR-Texas Memorial StadiumAustin, TX

Weather

Partly cloudy68°FN 13 mphGusts 25 mphPrecip 0%

At kickoff · 11:00 AM CT · Updated 1:36 PM CT · National Weather Service

Hour by hour

Austin · local time (CT)

Kickoff hour

Partly cloudy68°FN 13 mphGusts 25 mphPrecip 0%

Weather is not an input to the SBR forecast.

Game forecast

21%

Florida win probability

Texas 79%

Texas by 11.3

Projected margin

Margin uncertainty ±14.3 points

Published forecast · SBR sbr-2r · Model track record

The game in a minute

01 · Texas's case

Texas's offense leads its matchup in scoring

Texas's offense is in the 58th percentile for points per game this season. Florida's defense is in the 18th percentile for per game.

See the underlying numbers

02 · Florida's answer

Florida has no clear answer on this matchup

None of its defense's numbers stands out against Texas's offense.

03 · What could swing it

Wind is in the kickoff forecast

The National Weather Service forecast shows gusts to 25 mph at kickoff.

See the weather

When each team has the ball

Offensive efficiency meets defensive efficiency. Percentiles run from 0 to 100.

When Florida has the ball

Florida offense: 83rd
Texas defense: 82nd

Show the underlying numbers

Florida offensive per play: 0.2883rd percentile · #22 nationally
Texas PPA allowed per play: −0.0582nd percentile · #22 nationally
Florida: 48%78th percentile · #31 nationally
Texas success rate allowed: 35%82nd percentile · #25 nationally
Florida points per game: 41.792nd percentile · #12 nationally
Texas points allowed per game: 16.085th percentile · #21 nationally

PPA and success rate: CFBD, 2026 season to date, garbage time included. Points per game: 2026 games so far. Percentiles and ranks are among 2026 teams.

Florida offense · Last 6 games · garbage time excluded

Explosiveness: 1.25
Rush success: 45.8%

Texas defense · Last 5 games · garbage time excluded

Explosiveness allowed: 1.05
Rush success allowed: 35.4%

When Texas has the ball

Texas offense: 31st
Florida defense: 36th

Show the underlying numbers

Texas offensive PPA per play: 0.0831st percentile · #95 nationally
Florida PPA allowed per play: 0.0936th percentile · #81 nationally
Texas success rate: 44%48th percentile · #72 nationally
Florida success rate allowed: 42%39th percentile · #84 nationally
Texas points per game: 31.458th percentile · #59 nationally
Florida points allowed per game: 29.018th percentile · #113 nationally

PPA and success rate: CFBD, 2026 season to date, garbage time included. Points per game: 2026 games so far. Percentiles and ranks are among 2026 FBS teams.

Texas offense · Last 5 games · garbage time excluded

Explosiveness: 1.17
Rush success: 43.9%

Florida defense · 5 of the last 6 games · garbage time excluded

Explosiveness allowed: 1.28
Rush success allowed: 44.3%

Defense is oriented so a higher percentile is stronger.

Where they attack.

Follow the direction. Check the production.

Share of charted attemptsDirectional schematic

Offense moving upfield ↑

Select left, middle or right. The paths show direction only; alignment, routes and throw depth are schematic.

Aaron Philo · 82% of charted pass attempts

Throwing right

Share of charted plays: 43%
Usage: charted in this direction: 48 attempts
Yards / attempt: 12.4; over 47 attempts with a result
Completion rate: 79%; over 47 attempts with a result

112 of 115 have a direction · 3 unknown, excluded · rounded

Charted 5 of 6 games

Efficiency charted in 5 of 6 games

Depth as written in the play-by-play: 93 short · 19 deep · 3 not stated

Who's driving the offense?

The Florida offense in 2026

Aaron Philo

QB · 6 games

Photo: ESPN

105/149 · 70% season

Passing yards: 1,341
Touchdowns: 9
Interceptions: 3

Last game

South Carolina · Oct 10, 2026: 21/28, 227 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT

Jadan Baugh

RB · 6 games

Photo: ESPN

Carries: 110
Rushing yards: 672
Touchdowns: 12

Last game

South Carolina · Oct 10, 2026: 15 carries, 59 yds, 1 TD

Dallas Wilson

WR · 6 games

Receptions: 26
Receiving yards: 376
Touchdowns: 3

Last game

South Carolina · Oct 10, 2026: 8 rec, 74 yds, 0 TD

Florida player tables

Who is producing

Florida player production

2026 evidence · 6 games in this window · 6 with recorded rows in this view

Florida — Passing production
Player
Aaron PhiloQB	6	105 / 149	1,341	9.0	9	3
Tramell Jones Jr.QB	4	23 / 29	252	8.7	2	2
Kahleil JacksonWR	1	1 / 1	48	48.0	0	0

3 players with recorded rows

Rows are recorded player-game box lines for the games listed above. A missing row is missing data, not proof that a player did not appear, and none of these figures describe targets, snaps, starters or availability.

Texas player tables

Who is producing

Texas player production

2026 evidence · 5 games in this window · 5 with recorded rows in this view

Texas — Passing production
Player
Arch ManningQB	5	93 / 147	1,125	7.7	10	5
Karle Lacey Jr.QB	2	7 / 8	63	7.9	0	0

2 players with recorded rows

In the trenches

Florida's line averages 311.7 lbs against Texas's 294.4 lbs front — an edge of 17.3 lbs a man.

Typical FBS gap: 31.7 lbs.

Roster size is context. It isn't a forecast advantage.

Matchup	O-line	D-line
Florida OLFlorida OL vs Texas DL	311.7 lbs	294.4 lbs
Texas OLTexas OL vs Florida DL	319.4 lbs	293.9 lbs

Florida
Texas

Average listed roster weight, 2026 · bars run from 0 to 350 lbs.

How these teams stack up

2026 season. Percentiles and ranks are among 2026 FBS teams.

Florida

Points per game: 41.7#12 nationally · 92nd percentile · 6 games
Points allowed per game: 29.0#113 nationally · 18th percentile · 6 games
Returning production: 69% of 2025 PPA returns · 84th percentile
Upperclassmen: 57% · 138 of 138 with a class year

Texas

Points per game: 31.4#59 nationally · 58th percentile · 5 games
Points allowed per game: 16.0#21 nationally · 85th percentile · 5 games
Returning production: 72% of 2025 PPA returns · 86th percentile
Upperclassmen: 48% · 112 of 112 with a class year

Recruiting

Florida

2026 signing class · #17 nationally: 88th percentile · 251.0 pts
4-year recruiting composite (Saturday Bias) · classes 2023–2026 · #13 nationally: 91st percentile · 1.48 (0 is the FBS average)
Roster talent (CFBD Team Talent) · 2026 · #10 nationally: 93rd percentile · 891.1

Texas

2026 signing class · #7 nationally: 96th percentile · 291.2 pts
4-year recruiting composite (Saturday Bias) · classes 2023–2026 · #5 nationally: 97th percentile · 2.11 (0 is the FBS average)
Roster talent (CFBD Team Talent) · 2026 · #2 nationally: 99th percentile · 985.2

Recruited classes aren't the roster that takes the field.

Season percentile profiles

Season percentiles · outward is stronger · recruiting and experience are context, not forecast weights

Florida: solid line, circles · Texas: dashed line, squares

Florida

Offense · 2026: 35.1 · 87th percentile; CFBD, 2026 season to date
Defense · SP+ 2026: 24.6 · 58th percentile; CFBD, 2026 season to date
Special teams · SP+ 2026: 0.5 · 99th percentile; CFBD, 2026 season to date
Recruiting · 2026 signing class: 251.0 pts · 88th percentile; CFBD, 2026 signing class
Experience · returning production 2026: 69% returning · 84th percentile; CFBD, 2026 roster

Texas

Offense · SP+ 2026: 36.4 · 89th percentile; CFBD, 2026 season to date
Defense · SP+ 2026: 12.2 · 99th percentile; CFBD, 2026 season to date
Special teams · SP+ 2026: 0.3 · 80th percentile; CFBD, 2026 season to date
Recruiting · 2026 signing class: 291.2 pts · 96th percentile; CFBD, 2026 signing class
Experience · returning production 2026: 72% returning · 86th percentile; CFBD, 2026 roster

Florida's recent games

Most recent completed 2026 games · play stats exclude garbage time

Oct 10 · 64 recorded plays
vs South Carolina
L 19–38
44%
Success rate
0.04
PPA / play
Oct 3 · 47 recorded plays
at Missouri
L 17–45
32%
Success rate
−0.02
PPA / play
Sep 26 · 72 recorded plays
vs Ole Miss
W 52–28
61%
Success rate
0.39
PPA / play

The coaching staff

Florida

Head coach: Jon Sumrall
First season as Florida's head coach · career +7.5 SP+ overall
Photo: Bobak Ha'Eri, CC BY 3.0
Offensive coordinator: Buster Faulkner
career +28.2 SP+ offense
Defensive coordinator: Brad White
career +19.2 SP+ defense

Texas

Head coach: Steve Sarkisian
career +13.2 SP+ overall
Photo: Maize & Blue Nation, CC BY 2.0
Offensive coordinator: A. J. Milwee
Co-offensive coordinator · career +29.3 SP+ offense; Kyle Flood
career +29.3 SP+ offense
Defensive coordinator: Will Muschamp
career +10.6 SP+ defense
Photo: Enoch Lai, CC BY 3.0

Head-to-head

Series tied 1–1 since 2000

2025 · Florida 29, Texas 21
Ben Hill Griffin Stadium
2024 · Texas 49, Florida 17
DKR-Texas Memorial Stadium

Evidence and sources

Evidence window: 2026 season to date

Florida: 6 games
Texas: 5 games

Forecast: 2026 game forecast · this game · Saturday Bias
Weather: 2026 game forecast · this game · NWS
The game in a minute: 2026 season to date, garbage time included · compared with 2026 FBS teams · CFBD
When each team has the ball: 2026 season to date, garbage time included · compared with 2026 FBS teams · CFBD
Where they attack: 2026 season to date, garbage time included, regular season only · per team, not ranked · NCAA
Featured players: 2026 season to date, garbage time included · per team, not ranked · CFBD
In the trenches: 2026 roster snapshot · compared with 2026 FBS teams · CFBD
Team profiles: 2026 season to date · compared with 2026 FBS teams · CFBD
Recent games: 2026 recent games, garbage time excluded · this game · CFBD
Coaching staff: 2026 coaching staff · per team, not ranked · CFBD (head coaches, SP+) and Wikipedia (coordinators)
Head-to-head: completed meetings since 2000 · games between these two programs · CFBD

Compare these teams

Game forecast

The game in a minute

Texas's offense leads its matchup in scoring

Florida has no clear answer on this matchup

Wind is in the kickoff forecast

When each team has the ball

When Florida has the ball

Florida offense · Last 6 games · garbage time excluded

Texas defense · Last 5 games · garbage time excluded

When Texas has the ball

Texas offense · Last 5 games · garbage time excluded

Florida defense · 5 of the last 6 games · garbage time excluded

Where they attack.

Throwing right

Who's driving the offense?

Aaron Philo

Jadan Baugh

Dallas Wilson

Florida player production

Texas player production

In the trenches

How these teams stack up

Florida

Texas

Recruiting

Florida

Texas

Season percentile profiles

Florida

Texas

Florida's recent games

vs South Carolina

at Missouri

vs Ole Miss

The coaching staff

Florida

Texas

Head-to-head

Evidence and sources