Saturday, October 17

Auburn

3–2

Georgia

6–0 · AP #1

3:30 PM ETSanford StadiumAthens, GA

Weather

Clear69°FNE 10 mphGusts 20 mphPrecip 3%

At kickoff · 3:30 PM ET · Updated 7 hours ago · National Weather Service

Hour by hour

Athens · local time (ET)

Kickoff hour

Clear69°FNE 10 mphGusts 20 mphPrecip 3%

Weather is not an input to the SBR forecast.

Game forecast

Auburn win probability

Georgia 95%

Georgia by 23.5

Projected margin

Margin uncertainty ±14.2 points

Published forecast · SBR sbr-2r · Model track record

The game in a minute

01 · Auburn's case

No clear statistical strength for Auburn yet

In every matchup we can rate this season, the Auburn unit ranks well below the Georgia unit it faces.

See when each team has the ball

02 · Georgia's answer

Georgia's defense leads its matchup in per-play efficiency

Georgia's defense is in the 82nd percentile for allowed per play this season. Auburn's offense is in the 27th percentile for PPA per play.

See when each team has the ball

03 · What could swing it

The forecast comes with a range

The model gives Auburn a 5% chance to win and predicts Georgia by 23.5 points. That margin has an uncertainty of ±14.2 points.

See the forecast

When each team has the ball

Offensive efficiency meets defensive efficiency. Percentiles run from 0 to 100.

When Auburn has the ball

Auburn offense: 27th
Georgia defense: 82nd

Show the underlying numbers

Auburn offensive PPA per play: 0.0727th percentile · #97 nationally
Georgia PPA allowed per play: −0.0582nd percentile · #22 nationally
Auburn: 42%38th percentile · #86 nationally
Georgia success rate allowed: 35%81st percentile · #27 nationally
Auburn points per game: 26.839th percentile · #85 nationally
Georgia per game: 14.093rd percentile · #11 nationally

PPA and success rate: CFBD, 2026 season to date, garbage time included. Points per game: 2026 games so far. Percentiles and ranks are among 2026 teams.

Auburn offense · Last 5 games · garbage time excluded

Explosiveness: 1.27
Rush success: 44.3%

Georgia defense · 5 of the last 6 games · garbage time excluded

Explosiveness allowed: 1.33
Rush success allowed: 34.3%

When Georgia has the ball

Georgia offense: 99th
Auburn defense: 66th

Show the underlying numbers

Georgia offensive PPA per play: 0.4099th percentile · #3 nationally
Auburn PPA allowed per play: 0.0166th percentile · #43 nationally
Georgia success rate: 52%96th percentile · #6 nationally
Auburn success rate allowed: 38%64th percentile · #51 nationally
Georgia points per game: 46.299th percentile · #2 nationally
Auburn points allowed per game: 21.464th percentile · #49 nationally

PPA and success rate: CFBD, 2026 season to date, garbage time included. Points per game: 2026 games so far. Percentiles and ranks are among 2026 FBS teams.

Georgia offense · Last 6 games · garbage time excluded

Explosiveness: 1.20
Rush success: 53.2%

Auburn defense · Last 5 games · garbage time excluded

Explosiveness allowed: 1.19
Rush success allowed: 38.8%

Defense is oriented so a higher percentile is stronger.

Where they attack.

Follow the direction. Check the production.

Share of charted attemptsDirectional schematic

Offense moving upfield ↑

Select left, middle or right. The paths show direction only; alignment, routes and throw depth are schematic.

Byrum Brown · 96% of charted pass attempts

Throwing right

Share of charted plays: 45%
Usage: charted in this direction: 54 attempts
Yards / attempt: 4.8; over 54 attempts with a result
Completion rate: 57%; over 54 attempts with a result

121 of 126 have a direction · 5 unknown, excluded · rounded

Charted 4 of 5 games

Efficiency charted in 4 of 5 games

Depth as written in the play-by-play: 106 short · 15 deep · 5 not stated

What to watch

Most charted attempts go right (45%). Middle gives the most yards per attempt: 9.8 over 30 attempts with a result.

Who's driving the offense?

The Auburn offense in 2026

Byrum Brown

QB · 5 games

Photo: ESPN

103/158 · 65% season

Passing yards: 1,052
Touchdowns: 7
Interceptions: 7

Last game

Tennessee · Oct 3, 2026: 22/33, 159 yds, 1 TD, 2 INT

Byrum Brown

QB · 5 games

Photo: ESPN

Carries: 81
Rushing yards: 344
Touchdowns: 4

Last game

Tennessee · Oct 3, 2026: 19 carries, 107 yds, 1 TD

Keshaun Singleton

WR · 5 games

Photo: ESPN

Receptions: 29
Receiving yards: 322
Touchdown: 1

Last game

Tennessee · Oct 3, 2026: 7 rec, 54 yds, 0 TD

Auburn player tables

Who is producing

Auburn player production

2026 evidence · 5 games in this window · 5 with recorded rows in this view

Auburn — Passing production
Player
Byrum BrownQB	5	103 / 158	1,052	6.7	7	7
Tristan Ti'aQB	1	2 / 4	39	9.8	0	0
Christian NeptuneWR	1	1 / 1	5	5.0	1	0

3 players with recorded rows

Rows are recorded player-game box lines for the games listed above. A missing row is missing data, not proof that a player did not appear, and none of these figures describe targets, snaps, starters or availability.

Georgia player tables

Who is producing

Georgia player production

2026 evidence · 6 games in this window · 6 with recorded rows in this view

Georgia — Passing production
Player
Gunner StocktonQB	6	95 / 124	1,298	10.5	14	2
Ryan PuglisiQB	4	17 / 28	197	7.0	2	0
Ryan MontgomeryQB	2	3 / 6	66	11.0	1	0
Drew MillerP	1	0 / 1	0	0.0	0	0
Hezekiah MillenderQB	1	1 / 1	17	17.0	0	0

5 players with recorded rows

In the trenches

Auburn's line averages 315.2 lbs against Georgia's 297.4 lbs front — an edge of 17.8 lbs a man.

Typical FBS gap: 31.7 lbs.

Roster size is context. It isn't a forecast advantage.

Matchup	O-line	D-line
Auburn OLAuburn OL vs Georgia DL	315.2 lbs	297.4 lbs
Georgia OLGeorgia OL vs Auburn DL	315.5 lbs	286.3 lbs

Auburn
Georgia

Average listed roster weight, 2026 · bars run from 0 to 350 lbs.

How these teams stack up

2026 season. Percentiles and ranks are among 2026 FBS teams.

Auburn

Points per game: 26.8#85 nationally · 39th percentile · 5 games
Points allowed per game: 21.4#49 nationally · 64th percentile · 5 games
Returning production: 14% of 2025 PPA returns · 19th percentile
Upperclassmen: 39% · 113 of 113 with a class year

Georgia

Points per game: 46.2#2 nationally · 99th percentile · 6 games
Points allowed per game: 14.0#11 nationally · 93rd percentile · 6 games
Returning production: 69% of 2025 PPA returns · 82nd percentile
Upperclassmen: 48% · 129 of 129 with a class year

Recruiting

Auburn

2026 signing class · #31 nationally: 78th percentile · 226.0 pts
4-year recruiting composite (Saturday Bias) · classes 2023–2026 · #16 nationally: 89th percentile · 1.22 (0 is the FBS average)
Roster talent (CFBD Team Talent) · 2026 · #18 nationally: 88th percentile · 828.2

Georgia

2026 signing class · #6 nationally: 96th percentile · 292.0 pts
4-year recruiting composite (Saturday Bias) · classes 2023–2026 · #2 nationally: 99th percentile · 2.20 (0 is the FBS average)
Roster talent (CFBD Team Talent) · 2026 · #1 nationally: 100th percentile · 1003.7

Recruited classes aren't the roster that takes the field.

Season percentile profiles

Season percentiles · outward is stronger · recruiting and experience are context, not forecast weights

Auburn: solid line, circles · Georgia: dashed line, squares

Auburn

Offense · 2026: 27.9 · 55th percentile; CFBD, 2026 season to date
Defense · SP+ 2026: 17.1 · 88th percentile; CFBD, 2026 season to date
Special teams · SP+ 2026: 0.2 · 69th percentile; CFBD, 2026 season to date
Recruiting · 2026 signing class: 226.0 pts · 78th percentile; CFBD, 2026 signing class
Experience · returning production 2026: 14% returning · 19th percentile; CFBD, 2026 roster

Georgia

Offense · SP+ 2026: 40.5 · 98th percentile; CFBD, 2026 season to date
Defense · SP+ 2026: 12.7 · 99th percentile; CFBD, 2026 season to date
Special teams · SP+ 2026: 0.5 · 99th percentile; CFBD, 2026 season to date
Recruiting · 2026 signing class: 292.0 pts · 96th percentile; CFBD, 2026 signing class
Experience · returning production 2026: 69% returning · 82nd percentile; CFBD, 2026 roster

Auburn's recent games

Most recent completed 2026 games · play stats exclude garbage time

Oct 3 · 66 recorded plays
at Tennessee
L 14–24
39%
Success rate
−0.12
PPA / play
Sep 26 · 58 recorded plays
vs Vanderbilt
W 21–15
34%
Success rate
0.02
PPA / play
Sep 19 · 67 recorded plays
vs Florida
L 39–44
43%
Success rate
0.17
PPA / play

The coaching staff

Auburn

Head coach: Alex Golesh
First season as Auburn's head coach · career +0.9 SP+ overall
Offensive coordinator: Joel Gordon
career +33.3 SP+ offense; Kodi Burns
Co-offensive coordinator · career +33.3 SP+ offense
Photo: Obama White House Archives, Public domain
Defensive coordinator: D. J. Durkin
career +23.9 SP+ defense
Photo: Maryland GovPics, CC BY 2.0; Tim Banks
Co-defensive coordinator · career +23.9 SP+ defense

Georgia

Head coach: Kirby Smart
career +26.2 SP+ overall
Photo: Bobak Ha'Eri, CC BY 3.0
Offensive coordinator: Mike Bobo
career +40.0 SP+ offense
Photo: Bobak Ha'Eri, CC BY 3.0
Defensive coordinator: Glenn Schumann
career +14.9 SP+ defense
Photo: TarheelBornBred, CC0; Travaris Robinson
Co-defensive coordinator · career +14.9 SP+ defense
Photo: Gamecock Central, CC BY 2.0

Head-to-head

Georgia leads 20–7 since 2000

2025 · Georgia 20, Auburn 10
Jordan-Hare Stadium
2024 · Georgia 31, Auburn 13
Sanford Stadium
2023 · Georgia 27, Auburn 20
Jordan-Hare Stadium
2022 · Georgia 42, Auburn 10
Sanford Stadium
2021 · Georgia 34, Auburn 10
Jordan-Hare Stadium
2020 · Georgia 27, Auburn 6
Sanford Stadium
2019 · Georgia 21, Auburn 14
Jordan-Hare Stadium
2018 · Georgia 27, Auburn 10
Sanford Stadium
2017 · Georgia 28, Auburn 7
Neutral site · Mercedes-Benz Stadium
2017 · Auburn 40, Georgia 17
Jordan-Hare Stadium
2016 · Georgia 13, Auburn 7
Sanford Stadium
2015 · Georgia 20, Auburn 13
Jordan-Hare Stadium
2014 · Georgia 34, Auburn 7
Sanford Stadium
2013 · Auburn 43, Georgia 38
Jordan-Hare Stadium
2012 · Georgia 38, Auburn 0
Jordan-Hare Stadium
2011 · Georgia 45, Auburn 7
Sanford Stadium
2010 · Auburn 49, Georgia 31
Jordan-Hare Stadium
2009 · Georgia 31, Auburn 24
Sanford Stadium
2008 · Georgia 17, Auburn 13
Jordan-Hare Stadium
2007 · Georgia 45, Auburn 20
Sanford Stadium
2006 · Georgia 37, Auburn 15
Jordan-Hare Stadium
2005 · Auburn 31, Georgia 30
Sanford Stadium
2004 · Auburn 24, Georgia 6
Jordan-Hare Stadium
2003 · Georgia 26, Auburn 7
Sanford Stadium
2002 · Georgia 24, Auburn 21
Jordan-Hare Stadium
2001 · Auburn 24, Georgia 17
Sanford Stadium
2000 · Auburn 29, Georgia 26

Evidence and sources

Evidence window: 2026 season to date

Auburn: 5 games
Georgia: 6 games

Forecast: 2026 game forecast · this game · Saturday Bias
Weather: 2026 game forecast · this game · NWS
The game in a minute: 2026 season to date, garbage time included · compared with 2026 FBS teams · CFBD
When each team has the ball: 2026 season to date, garbage time included · compared with 2026 FBS teams · CFBD
Where they attack: 2026 season to date, garbage time included, regular season only · per team, not ranked · NCAA
Featured players: 2026 season to date, garbage time included · per team, not ranked · CFBD
In the trenches: 2026 roster snapshot · compared with 2026 FBS teams · CFBD
Team profiles: 2026 season to date · compared with 2026 FBS teams · CFBD
Recent games: 2026 recent games, garbage time excluded · this game · CFBD
Coaching staff: 2026 coaching staff · per team, not ranked · CFBD (head coaches, SP+) and Wikipedia (coordinators)
Head-to-head: completed meetings since 2000 · games between these two programs · CFBD

Compare these teams

Game forecast

The game in a minute

No clear statistical strength for Auburn yet

Georgia's defense leads its matchup in per-play efficiency

The forecast comes with a range

When each team has the ball

When Auburn has the ball

Auburn offense · Last 5 games · garbage time excluded

Georgia defense · 5 of the last 6 games · garbage time excluded

When Georgia has the ball

Georgia offense · Last 6 games · garbage time excluded

Auburn defense · Last 5 games · garbage time excluded

Where they attack.

Throwing right

Who's driving the offense?

Byrum Brown

Byrum Brown

Keshaun Singleton

Auburn player production

Georgia player production

In the trenches

How these teams stack up

Auburn

Georgia

Recruiting

Auburn

Georgia

Season percentile profiles

Auburn

Georgia

Auburn's recent games

at Tennessee

vs Vanderbilt

vs Florida

The coaching staff

Auburn

Georgia

Head-to-head

Evidence and sources