2026 Colorado State vs 2026 Wyoming
Hypothetical
68% to win
High confidence — 4 games in — see our accuracy
Hypothetical forecast · SBR sbr-2r
Why this number
How they're built
0–100 percentile · higher is stronger
Compare the whole profile, then explore each dimension.
- 2026 Colorado State Offense · SP+ 2026: 28.0, 56th percentile (2026 season to date)
- 2026 Wyoming Offense · SP+ 2026: 12.9, 2nd percentile (2026 season to date)
- 2026 Colorado State Defense · SP+ 2026: 35.7, 8th percentile (2026 season to date)
- 2026 Wyoming Defense · SP+ 2026: 26.7, 42nd percentile (2026 season to date)
- 2026 Colorado State Special teams · SP+ 2026: 0.0, 37th percentile (2026 season to date)
- 2026 Wyoming Special teams · SP+ 2026: −0.1, 28th percentile (2026 season to date)
- 2026 Colorado State Recruiting · 2026 signing class: 188.8 pts, 47th percentile (2026 signing class)
- 2026 Wyoming Recruiting · 2026 signing class: 169.7 pts, 18th percentile (2026 signing class)
- 2026 Colorado State Experience · returning production 2026: 40% returning, 50th percentile (2026 roster)
- 2026 Wyoming Experience · returning production 2026: 23% returning, 31st percentile (2026 roster)
Offensive production relative to that season’s field. Compare an offense with the opposing defense in the scouting report.
Recruiting and experience add context; the five axes aren't equal weights in the forecast.
The numbers behind the profiles
| Measure | 2026 Colorado State | 2026 Wyoming |
|---|---|---|
| Offensive / play | 0.2477th percentile | 0.0727th percentile |
| PPA allowed / play | 0.238th percentile | 0.1426th percentile |
| Points per game | 37.481st percentile5 games | 14.51st percentile6 games |
| per game | 38.64th percentile5 games | 20.569th percentile6 games |
Programs don't stand still
SP+ percentile among FBS teams, by season. The marked point is each compared season.
Momentum
Talent in, results out
Recruiting-class percentile feeding each roster, compared with its SP+ result.
- Average signing-class percentile, classes 2023–2026
- 42nd percentile
- SP+ percentile, 2026
- 26th percentile
- Average signing-class percentile, classes 2023–2026
- 24th percentile
- SP+ percentile, 2026
- 12th percentile
Campus distance
55 miles apart
There's more to the matchup.
Supporting context, ready when you want it.
In the trenches · both directions
| Matchup | O-line | D-line |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 Colorado State OL vs 2026 Wyoming DL | 306.2 lbs | 271.7 lbs |
| 2026 Wyoming OL vs 2026 Colorado State DL | 304.8 lbs | 271.7 lbs |
2026 Colorado State line yards 2.70 · 2026 Wyoming stuff rate 15.6%
2026 Wyoming line yards 3.51 · 2026 Colorado State stuff rate 15.0%
Fans swear big lines win games. They're half right — big-line teams do win more, but only because good programs recruit big linemen. Once we account for talent and last season, line size adds nothing to the prediction. Across 11 seasons, no measurable effect on margin.
Roster size is context. It isn't a forecast advantage.
Backtested effect: 0.42 pts at 1σ.
Head-to-head · Wyoming leads 14–13 since 2000
Colorado State has won 1 straight
| Season | Score | Venue |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | Colorado State 35–13 Wyoming | Canvas Stadium · Colorado State home |
| 2025 | Colorado State 0–28 Wyoming | War Memorial Stadium · Wyoming home |
| 2024 | Colorado State 24–10 Wyoming | Canvas Stadium · Colorado State home |
| 2023 | Colorado State 15–24 Wyoming | War Memorial Stadium · Wyoming home |
| 2022 | Colorado State 13–14 Wyoming | Canvas Stadium · Colorado State home |
| 2021 | Colorado State 17–31 Wyoming | War Memorial Stadium · Wyoming home |
| 2020 | Colorado State 34–24 Wyoming | Canvas Stadium · Colorado State home |
| 2019 | Colorado State 7–17 Wyoming | War Memorial Stadium · Wyoming home |
| 2018 | Colorado State 21–34 Wyoming | Canvas Stadium · Colorado State home |
| 2017 | Colorado State 13–16 Wyoming | War Memorial Stadium · Wyoming home |
| 2016 | Colorado State 17–38 Wyoming | Sonny Lubick Field at Hughes Stadium · Colorado State home |
| 2015 | Colorado State 26–7 Wyoming | War Memorial Stadium · Wyoming home |
| 2014 | Colorado State 45–31 Wyoming | Sonny Lubick Field at Hughes Stadium · Colorado State home |
| 2013 | Colorado State 52–22 Wyoming | War Memorial Stadium · Wyoming home |
| 2012 | Colorado State 31–45 Wyoming | War Memorial Stadium · Wyoming home |
| 2011 | Colorado State 19–22 Wyoming | Sonny Lubick Field at Hughes Stadium · Colorado State home |
| 2010 | Colorado State 0–44 Wyoming | War Memorial Stadium · Wyoming home |
| 2009 | Colorado State 16–17 Wyoming | Sonny Lubick Field at Hughes Stadium · Colorado State home |
| 2008 | Colorado State 31–20 Wyoming | War Memorial Stadium · Wyoming home |
| 2007 | Colorado State 36–28 Wyoming | Sonny Lubick Field at Hughes Stadium · Colorado State home |
| 2006 | Colorado State 0–24 Wyoming | Wyoming home |
| 2005 | Colorado State 39–31 Wyoming | Sonny Lubick Field at Hughes Stadium · Colorado State home |
| 2004 | Colorado State 30–7 Wyoming | Sonny Lubick Field at Hughes Stadium · Colorado State home |
| 2003 | Colorado State 28–35 Wyoming | War Memorial Stadium · Wyoming home |
| 2002 | Colorado State 44–36 Wyoming | Sonny Lubick Field at Hughes Stadium · Colorado State home |
| 2001 | Colorado State 42–14 Wyoming | War Memorial Stadium · Wyoming home |
| 2000 | Colorado State 37–13 Wyoming | Colorado State home |
Coaching & program context
HC
- Jim Mora (First season as Colorado State's head coach)
OC
- Pryce Tracy
no career track record on file
Scheme: Spread (listed on Wikipedia)
Style: Pass-heavy, average pace (threw on 55% of its run–pass plays, 95th percentile of 2026 FBS; 67.8 plays a game, 53rd percentile)
DC
- Kenny McClendon (co-DC)
- Tyson Summers
- Tyson Summers (3rd season; first 5 games)
career average +29.9 SP+ defense
Scheme: 3–3–5 (listed on Wikipedia)
HC
- Jay Sawvel
OC
- Christian Taylor
no career track record on file
Scheme: Multiple (listed on Wikipedia)
Style: Run-heavy, grind-it-out (threw on 38% of its run–pass plays, 15th percentile of 2026 FBS; 61.8 plays a game, 12th percentile)
DC
- Aaron Bohl
career average +27.8 SP+ defense
Scheme: 4–2–5 (listed on Wikipedia)
A new coordinator feels like it should swing a game. Across 11 seasons, the change doesn't move the final margin beyond what the roster already tells us. Shown as context, not a factor in our number.
Run-heavy team meets a defense that can't stop the run — feels like extra points waiting. Across 7 seasons the matchup adds nothing beyond what the two ratings already say; if anything the point estimate leans the other way.
Scouting reports
No upcoming game between these teams is on the schedule.
Share this matchup
Pasting the link anywhere unfurls the graphic automatically.
