Saturday, October 17

Wyoming

3–3

Northern Illinois

0–5

3:30 PM ET1:30 PM MTWar Memorial StadiumLaramie, WY

Weather

Clear60°FW 15 mphGusts 25 mphPrecip 0%

At kickoff · 1:30 PM MT · Updated 7 hours ago · National Weather Service

Hour by hour

Laramie · local time (MT)

Kickoff hour

Clear60°FW 15 mphGusts 25 mphPrecip 0%

Weather is not an input to the SBR forecast.

Game forecast

63%

Wyoming win probability

Northern Illinois 37%

Wyoming by 5.0

Projected margin

Margin uncertainty ±14.5 points

Published forecast · SBR sbr-2r · Model track record

The game in a minute

01 · Wyoming's case

Wyoming's defense leads its matchup in

Wyoming's defense is in the 69th percentile for points allowed per game this season. Northern Illinois's offense is in the 0th percentile for points per game.

See the underlying numbers

02 · Northern Illinois's answer

Northern Illinois has no clear answer on this matchup

None of its offense's numbers stands out against Wyoming's defense.

03 · What could swing it

Northern Illinois is winless so far

Northern Illinois's record this season is 0–5.

See the records

When each team has the ball

Offensive efficiency meets defensive efficiency. Percentiles run from 0 to 100.

When Wyoming has the ball

Wyoming offense: 27th
Northern Illinois defense: 12th

Show the underlying numbers

Wyoming offensive per play: 0.0727th percentile · #97 nationally
Northern Illinois PPA allowed per play: 0.2012th percentile · #120 nationally
Wyoming: 44%49th percentile · #71 nationally
Northern Illinois success rate allowed: 49%5th percentile · #131 nationally
Wyoming points per game: 14.51st percentile · #135 nationally
Northern Illinois points allowed per game: 34.66th percentile · #129 nationally

PPA and success rate: CFBD, 2026 season to date, garbage time included. Points per game: 2026 games so far. Percentiles and ranks are among 2026 teams.

Wyoming offense · Last 6 games · garbage time excluded

Explosiveness: 1.01
Rush success: 47.4%

Northern Illinois defense · 4 of the last 5 games · garbage time excluded

Explosiveness allowed: 1.25
Rush success allowed: 51.4%

When Northern Illinois has the ball

Northern Illinois offense: 1st
Wyoming defense: 26th

Show the underlying numbers

Northern Illinois offensive PPA per play: −0.121st percentile · #135 nationally
Wyoming PPA allowed per play: 0.1426th percentile · #101 nationally
Northern Illinois success rate: 37%9th percentile · #125 nationally
Wyoming success rate allowed: 46%12th percentile · #121 nationally
Northern Illinois points per game: 12.40th percentile · #138 nationally
Wyoming points allowed per game: 20.569th percentile · #44 nationally

PPA and success rate: CFBD, 2026 season to date, garbage time included. Points per game: 2026 games so far. Percentiles and ranks are among 2026 FBS teams.

Northern Illinois offense · Last 5 games · garbage time excluded

Explosiveness: 1.08
Rush success: 42.0%

Wyoming defense · 5 of the last 6 games · garbage time excluded

Explosiveness allowed: 1.04
Rush success allowed: 50.0%

Defense is oriented so a higher percentile is stronger.

Where they attack.

Follow the direction. Check the production.

Share of charted attemptsDirectional schematic

Offense moving upfield ↑

Select left, middle or right. The paths show direction only; alignment, routes and throw depth are schematic.

Tyler Hughes · 99% of charted pass attempts

Throwing right

Share of charted plays: 52%
Usage: charted in this direction: 49 attempts
Yards / attempt: 5.0; over 49 attempts with a result
Completion rate: 67%; over 49 attempts with a result

94 of 98 have a direction · 4 unknown, excluded · rounded

Charted 4 of 6 games

Efficiency charted in 4 of 6 games

Depth as written in the play-by-play: 78 short · 16 deep · 4 not stated

What to watch

Most charted attempts go right (52%). Middle gives the most yards per attempt: 9.4 over 19 attempts with a result.

Who's driving the offense?

The Wyoming offense in 2026

Tyler Hughes

QB · 6 games

Photo: ESPN

82/136 · 60% season

Passing yards: 822
Touchdowns: 3
Interceptions: 7

Last game

San José State · Oct 9, 2026: 16/24, 114 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT

Tyler Hughes

QB · 6 games

Photo: ESPN

Carries: 79
Rushing yards: 288
Touchdown: 1

Last game

San José State · Oct 9, 2026: 27 carries, 92 yds, 0 TD

Jake Wilson

TE · 6 games

Receptions: 19
Receiving yards: 197
Touchdown: 1

Last game

San José State · Oct 9, 2026: 7 rec, 39 yds, 1 TD

Wyoming player tables

Who is producing

Wyoming player production

2026 evidence · 6 games in this window · 6 with recorded rows in this view

Wyoming — Passing production
Player
Tyler HughesQB	6	82 / 136	822	6.0	3	7
Bart Edmiston Jr.P	1	1 / 1	7	7.0	0	0

2 players with recorded rows

Rows are recorded player-game box lines for the games listed above. A missing row is missing data, not proof that a player did not appear, and none of these figures describe targets, snaps, starters or availability.

Northern Illinois player tables

Who is producing

Northern Illinois player production

2026 evidence · 5 games in this window · 5 with recorded rows in this view

Northern Illinois — Passing production
Player
Taron DickensQB	5	97 / 140	977	7.0	3	3
Jalen MaconQB	2	5 / 13	20	1.5	0	1
Brady DavidsonQB	1	4 / 6	27	4.5	0	0

3 players with recorded rows

In the trenches

Wyoming's line averages 304.8 lbs against Northern Illinois's 270.1 lbs front — an edge of 34.7 lbs a man.

Typical FBS gap: 31.7 lbs.

Roster size is context. It isn't a forecast advantage.

Matchup	O-line	D-line
Wyoming OLWyoming OL vs Northern Illinois DL	304.8 lbs	270.1 lbs
Northern Illinois OLNorthern Illinois OL vs Wyoming DL	299.6 lbs	271.7 lbs

Wyoming
Northern Illinois

Average listed roster weight, 2026 · bars run from 0 to 350 lbs.

How these teams stack up

2026 season. Percentiles and ranks are among 2026 FBS teams.

Wyoming

Points per game: 14.5#135 nationally · 1st percentile · 6 games
Points allowed per game: 20.5#44 nationally · 69th percentile · 6 games
Returning production: 23% of 2025 PPA returns · 31st percentile
Upperclassmen: 45% · 116 of 116 with a class year

Northern Illinois

Points per game: 12.4#138 nationally · 0th percentile · 5 games
Points allowed per game: 34.6#129 nationally · 6th percentile · 5 games
Returning production: 44% of 2025 PPA returns · 56th percentile
Upperclassmen: 34% · 116 of 116 with a class year

Recruiting

Wyoming

2026 signing class · #114 nationally: 18th percentile · 169.7 pts
4-year recruiting composite (Saturday Bias) · classes 2023–2026 · #104 nationally: 25th percentile · −0.61 (0 is the FBS average)
Roster talent (CFBD Team Talent) · 2026 · #127 nationally: 8th percentile · 528.3

Northern Illinois

2026 signing class · #82 nationally: 41st percentile · 184.9 pts
4-year recruiting composite (Saturday Bias) · classes 2023–2026 · #85 nationally: 39th percentile · −0.41 (0 is the FBS average)
Roster talent (CFBD Team Talent) · 2026 · #126 nationally: 9th percentile · 536.6

Recruited classes aren't the roster that takes the field.

Season percentile profiles

Season percentiles · outward is stronger · recruiting and experience are context, not forecast weights

Wyoming: solid line, circles · Northern Illinois: dashed line, squares

Wyoming

Offense · 2026: 12.9 · 2nd percentile; CFBD, 2026 season to date
Defense · SP+ 2026: 26.7 · 42nd percentile; CFBD, 2026 season to date
Special teams · SP+ 2026: −0.1 · 28th percentile; CFBD, 2026 season to date
Recruiting · 2026 signing class: 169.7 pts · 18th percentile; CFBD, 2026 signing class
Experience · returning production 2026: 23% returning · 31st percentile; CFBD, 2026 roster

Northern Illinois

Offense · SP+ 2026: 12.9 · 2nd percentile; CFBD, 2026 season to date
Defense · SP+ 2026: 36.0 · 7th percentile; CFBD, 2026 season to date
Special teams · SP+ 2026: −0.3 · 12th percentile; CFBD, 2026 season to date
Recruiting · 2026 signing class: 184.9 pts · 41st percentile; CFBD, 2026 signing class
Experience · returning production 2026: 44% returning · 56th percentile; CFBD, 2026 roster

Wyoming's recent games

Most recent completed 2026 games · play stats exclude garbage time

Oct 9 · 79 recorded plays
at San José State
W 16–13
46%
Success rate
0.03
PPA / play
Oct 3 · 39 recorded plays
at North Dakota State
L 0–28
28%
Success rate
−0.33
PPA / play
Sep 26 · 63 recorded plays
vs Hawai'i
W 27–10
57%
Success rate
0.48
PPA / play

The coaching staff

Wyoming

Head coach: Jay Sawvel
career −12.4 SP+ overall
Offensive coordinator: Christian Taylor
no career rating on file
Defensive coordinator: Aaron Bohl
career +27.8 SP+ defense

Northern Illinois

Head coach: Rob Harley
First season as Northern Illinois's head coach · no career rating on file
Offensive coordinator: Quinn Sanders
career +25.8 SP+ offense; Tony Petersen
Co-offensive coordinator · career +25.8 SP+ offense
Defensive coordinator: Not on file

Head-to-head

Wyoming leads 2–0 since 2000

2021 · Wyoming 50, Northern Illinois 43
Huskie Stadium
2016 · Wyoming 40, Northern Illinois 34
War Memorial Stadium

Evidence and sources

Evidence window: 2026 season to date

Wyoming: 6 games
Northern Illinois: 5 games

Forecast: 2026 game forecast · this game · Saturday Bias
Weather: 2026 game forecast · this game · NWS
The game in a minute: 2026 season to date, garbage time included · compared with 2026 FBS teams · CFBD
When each team has the ball: 2026 season to date, garbage time included · compared with 2026 FBS teams · CFBD
Where they attack: 2026 season to date, garbage time included, regular season only · per team, not ranked · NCAA
Featured players: 2026 season to date, garbage time included · per team, not ranked · CFBD
In the trenches: 2026 roster snapshot · compared with 2026 FBS teams · CFBD
Team profiles: 2026 season to date · compared with 2026 FBS teams · CFBD
Recent games: 2026 recent games, garbage time excluded · this game · CFBD
Coaching staff: 2026 coaching staff · per team, not ranked · CFBD (head coaches, SP+) and Wikipedia (coordinators)
Head-to-head: completed meetings since 2000 · games between these two programs · CFBD

Compare these teams

Game forecast

The game in a minute

Wyoming's defense leads its matchup in points allowed

Northern Illinois has no clear answer on this matchup

Northern Illinois is winless so far

When each team has the ball

When Wyoming has the ball

Wyoming offense · Last 6 games · garbage time excluded

Northern Illinois defense · 4 of the last 5 games · garbage time excluded

When Northern Illinois has the ball

Northern Illinois offense · Last 5 games · garbage time excluded

Wyoming defense · 5 of the last 6 games · garbage time excluded

Where they attack.

Throwing right

Who's driving the offense?

Tyler Hughes

Tyler Hughes

Jake Wilson

Wyoming player production

Northern Illinois player production

In the trenches

How these teams stack up

Wyoming

Northern Illinois

Recruiting

Wyoming

Northern Illinois

Season percentile profiles

Wyoming

Northern Illinois

Wyoming's recent games

at San José State

at North Dakota State

vs Hawai'i

The coaching staff

Wyoming

Northern Illinois

Head-to-head

Evidence and sources

Wyoming's defense leads its matchup in