Thursday, October 15
Compare these teams
2–3
at
Texas State
2–3
8:00 PM ET7:00 PM CTBobcat Stadium (TX)San Marcos, TX
Clear85°FSE 6 mphGusts 15 mphPrecip 3%
At kickoff · 7:00 PM CT · Updated 1:36 PM CT · National Weather Service
San Marcos · local time (CT)
Kickoff hour
Clear85°FSE 6 mphGusts 15 mphPrecip 3%
Weather is not an input to the SBR forecast.
26%
Colorado State win probability
Texas State 74%
Texas State by 9.2
Projected margin
Margin uncertainty ±14.5 points
Published forecast · SBR sbr-2r · Model track record
01 · Colorado State's case
Colorado State's offense is in the 81st percentile for points per game this season. Texas State's defense is in the 9th percentile for per game.
See the underlying numbers02 · Texas State's answer
Texas State's offense is in the 84th percentile for success rate this season. Colorado State's defense is in the 0th percentile for success rate allowed.
See the underlying numbers03 · What could swing it
Colorado State's leading passer has thrown 48% of the team's charted attempts this season.
See where they attackOffensive efficiency meets defensive efficiency. Percentiles run from 0 to 100.
PPA and success rate: CFBD, 2026 season to date, garbage time included. Points per game: 2026 games so far. Percentiles and ranks are among 2026 teams.
PPA and success rate: CFBD, 2026 season to date, garbage time included. Points per game: 2026 games so far. Percentiles and ranks are among 2026 FBS teams.
Defense is oriented so a higher percentile is stronger.
Follow the direction. Check the production.
Offense moving upfield ↑
K'saan Farrar · 48% of charted pass attempts
74 of 76 have a direction · 2 unknown, excluded · rounded
Charted 4 of 5 games
Efficiency charted in 4 of 5 games
Depth as written in the play-by-play: 65 short · 9 deep · 2 not stated
The Colorado State offense in 2026
QB · 4 games
Photo: ESPN
63/102 · 62% season
Last game
Oregon State · Oct 3, 2026: 17/26, 183 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT
RB · 5 games
Photo: ESPN
Last game
Oregon State · Oct 3, 2026: 21 carries, 117 yds, 1 TD
WR · 5 games
Last game
Oregon State · Oct 3, 2026: 5 rec, 99 yds, 0 TD
Who is producing
2026 evidence · 5 games in this window · 5 with recorded rows in this view
Sorted by Completions and attempts, highest first
| Player | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ksaan FarrarQB | 4 | 63 / 102 | 654 | 6.4 | 3 | 2 |
| Hauss HejnyQB | 3 | 47 / 73 | 619 | 8.5 | 10 | 1 |
| Darius CurryQB | 1 | 6 / 8 | 70 | 8.8 | 1 | 0 |
| Terrence Smith Jr.WR | 2 | 1 / 2 | 28 | 14.0 | 0 | 1 |
4 players with recorded rows
Rows are recorded player-game box lines for the games listed above. A missing row is missing data, not proof that a player did not appear, and none of these figures describe targets, snaps, starters or availability.
Who is producing
2026 evidence · 5 games in this window · 5 with recorded rows in this view
Sorted by Completions and attempts, highest first
| Player | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brad JacksonQB | 5 | 92 / 138 | 1,226 | 8.9 | 13 | 5 |
| Gavin ParkhurstQB | 2 | 8 / 9 | 114 | 12.7 | 1 | 0 |
2 players with recorded rows
Rows are recorded player-game box lines for the games listed above. A missing row is missing data, not proof that a player did not appear, and none of these figures describe targets, snaps, starters or availability.
Colorado State's line averages 306.2 lbs against Texas State's 267.1 lbs front — an edge of 39.1 lbs a man.
Colorado State's line average is based on 17 of 23 linemen.
Texas State's front average is based on 20 of 25 linemen.
Typical FBS gap: 31.7 lbs.
Roster size is context. It isn't a forecast advantage.
| Matchup | O-line | D-line |
|---|---|---|
| Colorado State OLColorado State OL vs Texas State DL | 306.2 lbs | 267.1 lbs |
| Texas State OLTexas State OL vs Colorado State DL | 322.7 lbs | 271.7 lbs |
Average listed roster weight, 2026 · bars run from 0 to 350 lbs.
2026 season. Percentiles and ranks are among 2026 FBS teams.
Recruited classes aren't the roster that takes the field.
Season percentiles · outward is stronger · recruiting and experience are context, not forecast weights
Colorado State: solid line, circles · Texas State: dashed line, squares
Most recent completed 2026 games · play stats exclude garbage time
Oct 3 · 51 recorded plays
L 26–56
53%
Success rate
0.11
PPA / play
Sep 26 · 79 recorded plays
L 45–59
41%
Success rate
0.30
PPA / play
Sep 19 · 42 recorded plays
L 23–41
36%
Success rate
0.05
PPA / play
Jim Mora
First season as Colorado State's head coach · career +6.2 SP+ overall
Pryce Tracy
no career rating on file
Kenny McClendon
Co-defensive coordinator · career +29.9 SP+ defense
G.J. Kinne
career +2.0 SP+ overall
Jordan Shoemaker
Co-offensive coordinator · career +36.6 SP+ offense
Landon Keopple
career +36.6 SP+ offense
Matthew Gregg
Co-defensive coordinator · career +31.4 SP+ defense
Will Windham
career +31.4 SP+ defense
No meetings since 2000
Evidence window: 2026 season to date