2026 Auburn vs 2026 Baylor

Hypothetical

Baylor by 2.3

56% to win

High confidence — 5 games in — see our accuracy

Hypothetical forecast · SBR sbr-2r

Why this number

AuburnPreseason baseline +12.4In-season results +0.5

BaylorPreseason baseline +7.7In-season results +5.0

Baylor home field +2.5

How they're built

0–100 percentile · higher is stronger

Compare the whole profile, then explore each dimension.

Offensive production relative to that season’s field. Compare an offense with the opposing defense in the scouting report.

Recruiting and experience add context; the five axes aren't equal weights in the forecast.

The numbers behind the profiles

Measure	2026 Auburn	2026 Baylor
Offensive / play	0.0727th percentile	0.1651st percentile
PPA allowed / play	0.0166th percentile	−0.1196th percentile
Points per game	26.839th percentile5 games	34.869th percentile5 games
per game	21.464th percentile5 games	14.292nd percentile5 games

Programs don't stand still

SP+ percentile among FBS teams, by season. The marked point is each compared season.

2026 Auburn2026 Baylor

Momentum

Auburn→ steady (+1 pctl over 3 seasons)

Baylor→ steady (+9 pctl over 3 seasons)

Talent in, results out

Recruiting-class percentile feeding each roster, compared with its SP+ result.

2026 Auburn

Average signing-class percentile, classes 2023–2026: 88th percentile
SP+ percentile, 2026: 77th percentile

Underperforming its talent (−12)

2026 Baylor

Average signing-class percentile, classes 2023–2026: 64th percentile
SP+ percentile, 2026: 81st percentile

Outperforming its talent (+17)

Campus distance

685 miles apart

There's more to the matchup.

Supporting context, ready when you want it.

In the trenches · both directions

Matchup	O-line	D-line
2026 Auburn OL vs 2026 Baylor DL	315.2 lbs	279.3 lbs
2026 Baylor OL vs 2026 Auburn DL	312.4 lbs	286.3 lbs

2026 Auburn line yards 3.32 · 2026 Baylor stuff rate 24.2%

2026 Baylor line yards 2.95 · 2026 Auburn stuff rate 16.9%

Fans swear big lines win games. They're half right — big-line teams do win more, but only because good programs recruit big linemen. Once we account for talent and last season, line size adds nothing to the prediction. Across 11 seasons, no measurable effect on margin.

Roster size is context. It isn't a forecast advantage.

Backtested effect: 0.42 pts at 1σ.

Head-to-head · Auburn leads 2–0 since 2000

Auburn has won 2 straight

Season	Score	Venue
2026	Auburn 17–16 Baylor	Neutral site
2025	Auburn 38–24 Baylor	McLane Stadium · Baylor home

Coaching & program context

2026 Auburn

Alex Golesh (First season as Auburn's head coach)

Joel Gordon
Kodi Burns (co-OC)

career average +33.3 SP+ offense

Scheme: Veer and shoot (listed on Wikipedia)

Style: Balanced, up-tempo (threw on 47% of its run–pass plays, 53rd percentile of 2026 FBS; 70.2 plays a game, 70th percentile)

D. J. Durkin
Tim Banks (co-DC)

career average +23.9 SP+ defense

Scheme: Multiple (listed on Wikipedia)

2026 Baylor

Dave Aranda

Jake Spavital

career average +37.2 SP+ offense

Scheme: Bear raid (listed on Wikipedia)

Style: Pass-heavy, up-tempo (threw on 50% of its run–pass plays, 77th percentile of 2026 FBS; 82.2 plays a game, 100th percentile)

Joe Klanderman

career average +21.1 SP+ defense

Scheme: 4–2–5 (listed on Wikipedia)

A new coordinator feels like it should swing a game. Across 11 seasons, the change doesn't move the final margin beyond what the roster already tells us. Shown as context, not a factor in our number.

Run-heavy team meets a defense that can't stop the run — feels like extra points waiting. Across 7 seasons the matchup adds nothing beyond what the two ratings already say; if anything the point estimate leans the other way.