Saturday, October 17

Baylor

4–1

TCU

2–3

7:00 PM ET6:00 PM CTMcLane StadiumWaco, TX

Weather

Clear72°FN 8 mphGusts 16 mphPrecip 0%

At kickoff · 6:00 PM CT · Updated 1:26 PM CT · National Weather Service

Hour by hour

Waco · local time (CT)

Kickoff hour

Clear72°FN 8 mphGusts 16 mphPrecip 0%

Weather is not an input to the SBR forecast.

Game forecast

66%

Baylor win probability

TCU 34%

Baylor by 6.0

Projected margin

Margin uncertainty ±14.2 points

Published forecast · SBR sbr-2r · Model track record

The game in a minute

01 · Baylor's case

Baylor's defense leads its matchup in

Baylor's defense is in the 92nd percentile for points allowed per game this season. TCU's offense is in the 34th percentile for points per game.

See the underlying numbers

02 · TCU's answer

TCU's defense leads its matchup in allowed

TCU's defense is in the 77th percentile for success rate allowed this season. Baylor's offense is in the 26th percentile for success rate.

See the underlying numbers

03 · What could swing it

Baylor leans on its top passer

Baylor's leading passer has thrown 58% of the team's charted attempts this season.

See where they attack

When each team has the ball

Offensive efficiency meets defensive efficiency. Percentiles run from 0 to 100.

When Baylor has the ball

Baylor offense: 51st
TCU defense: 93rd

Show the underlying numbers

Baylor offensive per play: 0.1651st percentile · #67 nationally
TCU PPA allowed per play: −0.1093rd percentile · #8 nationally
Baylor success rate: 40%26th percentile · #102 nationally
TCU success rate allowed: 36%77th percentile · #33 nationally
Baylor points per game: 34.869th percentile · #41 nationally
TCU points allowed per game: 13.493rd percentile · #9 nationally

PPA and success rate: CFBD, 2026 season to date, garbage time included. Points per game: 2026 games so far. Percentiles and ranks are among 2026 teams.

Baylor offense · Last 5 games · garbage time excluded

Explosiveness: 1.41
Rush success: 43.5%

TCU defense · 4 of the last 5 games · garbage time excluded

Explosiveness allowed: 0.91
Rush success allowed: 40.1%

When TCU has the ball

TCU offense: 43rd
Baylor defense: 96th

Show the underlying numbers

TCU offensive PPA per play: 0.1343rd percentile · #76 nationally
Baylor PPA allowed per play: −0.1196th percentile · #6 nationally
TCU success rate: 45%58th percentile · #57 nationally
Baylor success rate allowed: 34%91st percentile · #14 nationally
TCU points per game: 25.434th percentile · #92 nationally
Baylor points allowed per game: 14.292nd percentile · #12 nationally

PPA and success rate: CFBD, 2026 season to date, garbage time included. Points per game: 2026 games so far. Percentiles and ranks are among 2026 FBS teams.

TCU offense · Last 5 games · garbage time excluded

Explosiveness: 1.28
Rush success: 41.4%

Baylor defense · 4 of the last 5 games · garbage time excluded

Explosiveness allowed: 1.07
Rush success allowed: 33.9%

Defense is oriented so a higher percentile is stronger.

Where they attack.

Follow the direction. Check the production.

Share of charted attemptsDirectional schematic

Offense moving upfield ↑

Select left, middle or right. The paths show direction only; alignment, routes and throw depth are schematic.

DJ Lagway · 58% of charted pass attempts

Throwing left

Share of charted plays: 42%
Usage: charted in this direction: 38 attempts
Yards / attempt: 6.0; over 38 attempts with a result
Completion rate: 55%; over 38 attempts with a result

91 of 93 have a direction · 2 unknown, excluded · rounded

Charted 4 of 5 games

Efficiency charted in 4 of 5 games

Depth as written in the play-by-play: 71 short · 20 deep · 2 not stated

Who's driving the offense?

The Baylor offense in 2026

DJ Lagway

QB · 3 games

Photo: ESPN

71/133 · 53% season

Passing yards: 860
Touchdowns: 8
Interceptions: 2

Last game

Arizona State · Oct 3, 2026: 25/40, 306 yds, 4 TD, 0 INT

Dawson Pendergrass

RB · 5 games

Photo: ESPN

Carries: 80
Rushing yards: 317
Touchdown: 1

Last game

Arizona State · Oct 3, 2026: 8 carries, 29 yds, 0 TD

Gavin Freeman

WR · 5 games

Photo: ESPN

Receptions: 42
Receiving yards: 479
Touchdowns: 2

Last game

Arizona State · Oct 3, 2026: 7 rec, 115 yds, 0 TD

Baylor player tables

Who is producing

Baylor player production

2026 evidence · 5 games in this window · 5 with recorded rows in this view

Baylor — Passing production
Player
D.J. LagwayQB	3	71 / 133	860	6.5	8	2
Nate BennettQB	3	46 / 61	568	9.3	5	2
Edward GriffinQB	1	2 / 6	19	3.2	0	1

3 players with recorded rows

Rows are recorded player-game box lines for the games listed above. A missing row is missing data, not proof that a player did not appear, and none of these figures describe targets, snaps, starters or availability.

TCU player tables

Who is producing

TCU player production

2026 evidence · 5 games in this window · 5 with recorded rows in this view

TCU — Passing production
Player
Jaden CraigQB	5	108 / 157	1,400	8.9	8	4
Adam SchobelQB	1	0 / 1	0	0.0	0	0

2 players with recorded rows

In the trenches

Baylor's line averages 312.4 lbs against TCU's 267.1 lbs front — an edge of 45.3 lbs a man.

Typical FBS gap: 31.7 lbs.

Roster size is context. It isn't a forecast advantage.

Matchup	O-line	D-line
Baylor OLBaylor OL vs TCU DL	312.4 lbs	267.1 lbs
TCU OLTCU OL vs Baylor DL	313.5 lbs	279.3 lbs

Baylor
TCU

Average listed roster weight, 2026 · bars run from 0 to 350 lbs.

How these teams stack up

2026 season. Percentiles and ranks are among 2026 FBS teams.

Baylor

Points per game: 34.8#41 nationally · 69th percentile · 5 games
Points allowed per game: 14.2#12 nationally · 92nd percentile · 5 games
Returning production: 60% of 2025 PPA returns · 71st percentile
Upperclassmen: 63% · 141 of 141 with a class year

TCU

Points per game: 25.4#92 nationally · 34th percentile · 5 games
Points allowed per game: 13.4#9 nationally · 93rd percentile · 5 games
Returning production: 22% of 2025 PPA returns · 30th percentile
Upperclassmen: 53% · 117 of 117 with a class year

Recruiting

Baylor

2026 signing class · #57 nationally: 59th percentile · 200.6 pts
4-year recruiting composite (Saturday Bias) · classes 2023–2026 · #55 nationally: 61st percentile · 0.20 (0 is the FBS average)
Roster talent (CFBD Team Talent) · 2026 · #43 nationally: 69th percentile · 723.3

TCU

2026 signing class · #47 nationally: 66th percentile · 212.6 pts
4-year recruiting composite (Saturday Bias) · classes 2023–2026 · #28 nationally: 80th percentile · 0.58 (0 is the FBS average)
Roster talent (CFBD Team Talent) · 2026 · #40 nationally: 72nd percentile · 730.8

Recruited classes aren't the roster that takes the field.

Season percentile profiles

Season percentiles · outward is stronger · recruiting and experience are context, not forecast weights

Baylor: solid line, circles · TCU: dashed line, squares

Baylor

Offense · 2026: 31.3 · 69th percentile; CFBD, 2026 season to date
Defense · SP+ 2026: 19.0 · 83rd percentile; CFBD, 2026 season to date
Special teams · SP+ 2026: 0.3 · 80th percentile; CFBD, 2026 season to date
Recruiting · 2026 signing class: 200.6 pts · 59th percentile; CFBD, 2026 signing class
Experience · returning production 2026: 60% returning · 71st percentile; CFBD, 2026 roster

TCU

Offense · SP+ 2026: 26.5 · 50th percentile; CFBD, 2026 season to date
Defense · SP+ 2026: 17.1 · 88th percentile; CFBD, 2026 season to date
Special teams · SP+ 2026: −0.1 · 28th percentile; CFBD, 2026 season to date
Recruiting · 2026 signing class: 212.6 pts · 66th percentile; CFBD, 2026 signing class
Experience · returning production 2026: 22% returning · 30th percentile; CFBD, 2026 roster

Baylor's recent games

Most recent completed 2026 games · play stats exclude garbage time

Oct 3 · 61 recorded plays
at Arizona State
W 55–19
43%
Success rate
0.51
PPA / play
Sep 26 · 74 recorded plays
vs Colorado
W 23–13
35%
Success rate
−0.07
PPA / play
Sep 19 · 69 recorded plays
vs Louisiana Tech
W 36–19
36%
Success rate
0.21
PPA / play

The coaching staff

Baylor

Head coach: Dave Aranda
career +5.0 SP+ overall
Photo: Jace Pierce, CC BY-SA 2.0
Offensive coordinator: Jake Spavital
career +37.2 SP+ offense
Photo: Bobak Ha'Eri, CC BY 3.0
Defensive coordinator: Joe Klanderman
career +21.1 SP+ defense
Photo: Kansas State Wildcats: K-StateOnline, CC BY 3.0

TCU

Head coach: Sonny Dykes
career +4.6 SP+ overall
Photo: Arbor to SJ, CC BY-SA 4.0
Offensive coordinator: A. J. Ricker
Co-offensive coordinator · career +34.5 SP+ offense; Gordon Sammis
career +34.5 SP+ offense
Defensive coordinator: Andy Avalos
career +21.1 SP+ defense

Head-to-head

TCU leads 13–5 since 2000

2025 · TCU 42, Baylor 36
Amon G. Carter Stadium
2024 · Baylor 37, TCU 34
McLane Stadium
2023 · TCU 42, Baylor 17
Amon G. Carter Stadium
2022 · TCU 29, Baylor 28
McLane Stadium
2021 · TCU 30, Baylor 28
Amon G. Carter Stadium
2020 · TCU 33, Baylor 23
McLane Stadium
2019 · Baylor 29, TCU 23
Amon G. Carter Stadium
2018 · TCU 16, Baylor 9
McLane Stadium
2017 · TCU 45, Baylor 22
Amon G. Carter Stadium
2016 · TCU 62, Baylor 22
McLane Stadium
2015 · TCU 28, Baylor 21
Amon G. Carter Stadium
2014 · Baylor 61, TCU 58
McLane Stadium
2013 · Baylor 41, TCU 38
Amon G. Carter Stadium
2012 · TCU 49, Baylor 21
Floyd Casey Stadium
2011 · Baylor 50, TCU 48
Floyd Casey Stadium
2010 · TCU 45, Baylor 10
Amon G. Carter Stadium
2007 · TCU 27, Baylor 0
Amon G. Carter Stadium
2006 · TCU 17, Baylor 7
Floyd Casey Stadium

Evidence and sources

Evidence window: 2026 season to date

Baylor: 5 games
TCU: 5 games

Forecast: 2026 game forecast · this game · Saturday Bias
Weather: 2026 game forecast · this game · NWS
The game in a minute: 2026 season to date, garbage time included · compared with 2026 FBS teams · CFBD
When each team has the ball: 2026 season to date, garbage time included · compared with 2026 FBS teams · CFBD
Where they attack: 2026 season to date, garbage time included, regular season only · per team, not ranked · NCAA
Featured players: 2026 season to date, garbage time included · per team, not ranked · CFBD
In the trenches: 2026 roster snapshot · compared with 2026 FBS teams · CFBD
Team profiles: 2026 season to date · compared with 2026 FBS teams · CFBD
Recent games: 2026 recent games, garbage time excluded · this game · CFBD
Coaching staff: 2026 coaching staff · per team, not ranked · CFBD (head coaches, SP+) and Wikipedia (coordinators)
Head-to-head: completed meetings since 2000 · games between these two programs · CFBD

Compare these teams

Game forecast

The game in a minute

Baylor's defense leads its matchup in points allowed

TCU's defense leads its matchup in success rate allowed

Baylor leans on its top passer

When each team has the ball

When Baylor has the ball

Baylor offense · Last 5 games · garbage time excluded

TCU defense · 4 of the last 5 games · garbage time excluded

When TCU has the ball

TCU offense · Last 5 games · garbage time excluded

Baylor defense · 4 of the last 5 games · garbage time excluded

Where they attack.

Throwing left

Who's driving the offense?

DJ Lagway

Dawson Pendergrass

Gavin Freeman

Baylor player production

TCU player production

In the trenches

How these teams stack up

Baylor

TCU

Recruiting

Baylor

TCU

Season percentile profiles

Baylor

TCU

Baylor's recent games

at Arizona State

vs Colorado

vs Louisiana Tech

The coaching staff

Baylor

TCU

Head-to-head

Evidence and sources

Baylor's defense leads its matchup in

TCU's defense leads its matchup in allowed