Saturday, October 17

Cincinnati

4–1

West Virginia

3–3

12:00 PM ETMilan Puskar StadiumMorgantown, WV

Weather

Partly cloudy47°FNW 15 mphGusts 23 mphPrecip 8%

At kickoff · 12:00 PM ET · Updated 2:21 PM ET · National Weather Service

Hour by hour

Morgantown · local time (ET)

Kickoff hour

Partly cloudy47°FNW 15 mphGusts 23 mphPrecip 8%

Weather is not an input to the SBR forecast.

Evidence sections show 2025 background.

Game forecast

55%

Cincinnati win probability

West Virginia 45%

Cincinnati by 2.0

Projected margin

Margin uncertainty ±14.1 points

Published forecast · SBR sbr-2r · Model track record

The game in a minute

01 · Cincinnati's case

Cincinnati's offense leads its matchup in scoring

Cincinnati's offense was in the 69th percentile for points per game last season. West Virginia's defense was in the 16th percentile for per game.

See the underlying numbers

02 · West Virginia's answer

West Virginia has no clear answer on this matchup

None of its defense's numbers stood out against Cincinnati's offense last season.

03 · What could swing it

The forecast comes with a range

The model gives Cincinnati a 55% chance to win and predicts Cincinnati by 2.0 points. That margin has an uncertainty of ±14.1 points.

See the forecast

When each team has the ball

Offensive efficiency meets defensive efficiency. Percentiles run from 0 to 100.

When Cincinnati has the ball

Cincinnati offense: 87th
West Virginia defense: 45th

Show the underlying numbers

Cincinnati offensive per play: 0.3087th percentile · #12 nationally
West Virginia PPA allowed per play: 0.1645th percentile · #70 nationally
Cincinnati: 47%85th percentile · #21 nationally
West Virginia success rate allowed: 40%64th percentile · #49 nationally
Cincinnati points per game: 30.369th percentile · #43 nationally
West Virginia points allowed per game: 30.816th percentile · #113 nationally

PPA and success rate: CFBD, 2025 full season, garbage time included. Points per game: every 2025 game. Percentiles and ranks are among 2025 teams.

Cincinnati offense · 2025 season · 7 of the last 8 games · garbage time excluded

Explosiveness: 1.29
Rush success: 48.1%

West Virginia defense · 2025 season · Last 8 games · garbage time excluded

Explosiveness allowed: 1.44
Rush success allowed: 38.8%

When West Virginia has the ball

West Virginia offense: 13th
Cincinnati defense: 27th

Show the underlying numbers

West Virginia offensive PPA per play: 0.0713th percentile · #116 nationally
Cincinnati PPA allowed per play: 0.1927th percentile · #89 nationally
West Virginia success rate: 37%13th percentile · #119 nationally
Cincinnati success rate allowed: 44%26th percentile · #101 nationally
West Virginia points per game: 21.819th percentile · #110 nationally
Cincinnati points allowed per game: 25.646th percentile · #74 nationally

PPA and success rate: CFBD, 2025 full season, garbage time included. Points per game: every 2025 game. Percentiles and ranks are among 2025 FBS teams.

West Virginia offense · 2025 season · Last 8 games · garbage time excluded

Explosiveness: 1.28
Rush success: 37.3%

Cincinnati defense · 2025 season · 7 of the last 8 games · garbage time excluded

Explosiveness allowed: 1.16
Rush success allowed: 47.9%

Defense is oriented so a higher percentile is stronger.

Where they attack.

Follow the direction. Check the production.

Share of charted attemptsDirectional schematic

Offense moving upfield ↑

Select left, middle or right. The paths show direction only; alignment, routes and throw depth are schematic.

Brendan Sorsby · 98% of charted pass attempts

Throwing right

Share of charted plays: 41%
Usage: charted in this direction: 135 attempts
Yards / attempt: 7.5; over 135 attempts with a result
Completion rate: 56%; over 135 attempts with a result

331 of 336 have a direction · 5 unknown, excluded · rounded

Charted 12 of 12 games

Efficiency charted in 12 of 12 games

Depth as written in the play-by-play: 271 short · 60 deep · 5 not stated

Who's driving the offense?

The Cincinnati offense in 2025

Brendan Sorsby

QB · 12 games

206/335 · 61% season

Passing yards: 2,786
Touchdowns: 26
Interceptions: 5

Last game

TCU · Nov 29, 2025: 23/33, 282 yds, 3 TD, 0 INT

Tawee Walker

RB · 12 games

Carries: 120
Rushing yards: 709
Touchdowns: 4

Last game

TCU · Nov 29, 2025: 6 carries, 48 yds, 0 TD

Cyrus Allen

WR · 13 games

Receptions: 50
Receiving yards: 660
Touchdowns: 12

Last game

Navy · Jan 2, 2026: 2 rec, 9 yds, 1 TD

Cincinnati player tables

Who is producing

Cincinnati player production

2025 evidence · 13 games in this window · 13 with recorded rows in this view

Cincinnati — Passing production
Player
Brendan SorsbyQB	12	206 / 335	2,786	8.3	26	5
Brady LichtenbergQB	2	14 / 21	134	6.4	2	1
Samaj JonesQB	2	4 / 7	72	10.3	1	0

3 players with recorded rows

Rows are recorded player-game box lines for the games listed above. A missing row is missing data, not proof that a player did not appear, and none of these figures describe targets, snaps, starters or availability.

West Virginia player tables

Who is producing

West Virginia player production

2025 evidence · 12 games in this window · 12 with recorded rows in this view

West Virginia — Passing production
Player
Scotty Fox Jr.QB	9	101 / 170	1,276	7.5	7	6
Nicco MarchiolQB	4	66 / 98	720	7.3	2	2
Khalil WilkinsQB	4	16 / 36	185	5.1	1	2
Jaylen HendersonQB	5	7 / 18	50	2.8	0	0
Max BrownQB	1	1 / 3	7	2.3	0	1
Cam VaughnWR	2	1 / 2	29	14.5	0	0

6 players with recorded rows

In the trenches

Cincinnati's line averages 309.0 lbs against West Virginia's 272.1 lbs front — an edge of 36.9 lbs a man.

Typical FBS gap: 31.7 lbs.

Roster size is context. It isn't a forecast advantage.

Matchup	O-line	D-line
Cincinnati OLCincinnati OL vs West Virginia DL	309.0 lbs	272.1 lbs
West Virginia OLWest Virginia OL vs Cincinnati DL	301.3 lbs	273.5 lbs

Cincinnati
West Virginia

Average listed roster weight, 2026 · bars run from 0 to 350 lbs.

How these teams stack up

2025 season. Percentiles and ranks are among 2025 FBS teams.

Cincinnati

Points per game: 30.3#43 nationally · 69th percentile · 13 games
Points allowed per game: 25.6#74 nationally · 46th percentile · 13 games
Returning production: 79% of 2024 PPA returns · 83rd percentile
Upperclassmen: 41% · 110 of 110 with a class year

West Virginia

Points per game: 21.8#110 nationally · 19th percentile · 12 games
Points allowed per game: 30.8#113 nationally · 16th percentile · 12 games
Returning production: 26% of 2024 PPA returns · 25th percentile
Upperclassmen: 55% · 125 of 125 with a class year

Recruiting

Cincinnati

2025 signing class · #61 nationally: 56th percentile · 189.5 pts
4-year recruiting composite (Saturday Bias) · classes 2022–2025 · #60 nationally: 56th percentile · 0.16 (0 is the FBS average)
Roster talent (CFBD Team Talent) · 2025 · #73 nationally: 46th percentile · 644.1

West Virginia

2025 signing class · #43 nationally: 69th percentile · 205.2 pts
4-year recruiting composite (Saturday Bias) · classes 2022–2025 · #40 nationally: 71st percentile · 0.41 (0 is the FBS average)
Roster talent (CFBD Team Talent) · 2025 · #63 nationally: 53rd percentile · 662.3

Recruited classes aren't the roster that takes the field.

Season percentile profiles

Season percentiles · outward is stronger · recruiting and experience are context, not forecast weights

Cincinnati: solid line, circles · West Virginia: dashed line, squares

Cincinnati

Offense · 2025: 30.2 · 64th percentile; CFBD, 2025 season to date
Defense · SP+ 2025: 26.4 · 51st percentile; CFBD, 2025 season to date
Special teams · SP+ 2025: 0.8 · 66th percentile; CFBD, 2025 season to date
Recruiting · 2025 signing class: 189.5 pts · 56th percentile; CFBD, 2025 signing class
Experience · returning production 2025: 79% returning · 83rd percentile; CFBD, 2025 roster

West Virginia

Offense · SP+ 2025: 22.8 · 25th percentile; CFBD, 2025 season to date
Defense · SP+ 2025: 30.0 · 33rd percentile; CFBD, 2025 season to date
Special teams · SP+ 2025: 0.3 · 53rd percentile; CFBD, 2025 season to date
Recruiting · 2025 signing class: 205.2 pts · 69th percentile; CFBD, 2025 signing class
Experience · returning production 2025: 26% returning · 25th percentile; CFBD, 2025 roster

Cincinnati's recent games

Most recent completed 2025 games · play stats exclude garbage time

Jan 2
vs Navy · neutral site
L 13–35
Play stats pending
Nov 29 · 54 recorded plays
at TCU
L 23–45
44%
Success rate
0.35
PPA / play
Nov 22 · 63 recorded plays
vs BYU
L 14–26
41%
Success rate
0.15
PPA / play

The coaching staff

Cincinnati

Head coach: Scott Satterfield
career +3.8 SP+ overall
Photo: Bobak Ha'Eri, CC BY 3.0
Offensive coordinator: Nic Cardwell
Co-offensive coordinator · no career rating on file; Pete Thomas
no career rating on file
Defensive coordinator: Cortney Braswell
Co-defensive coordinator · career +25.3 SP+ defense; Nate Woody
career +25.3 SP+ defense

West Virginia

Head coach: Rich Rodriguez
career +7.5 SP+ overall
Photo: WVU Athletics Communication, CC0
Offensive coordinator: Not on file
Defensive coordinator: Zac Alley
career +24.6 SP+ defense
Photo: ULM Warhawks, CC BY-SA 3.0

Head-to-head

West Virginia leads 8–3 since 2000

2024 · West Virginia 31, Cincinnati 24
Nippert Stadium
2023 · West Virginia 42, Cincinnati 21
Milan Puskar Stadium
2011 · West Virginia 24, Cincinnati 21
2010 · West Virginia 37, Cincinnati 10
Milan Puskar Stadium
2009 · Cincinnati 24, West Virginia 21
Nippert Stadium
2008 · Cincinnati 26, West Virginia 23
Milan Puskar Stadium
2007 · West Virginia 28, Cincinnati 23
Nippert Stadium
2006 · West Virginia 42, Cincinnati 24
Milan Puskar Stadium
2005 · West Virginia 38, Cincinnati 0
Nippert Stadium
2003 · Cincinnati 15, West Virginia 13
Milan Puskar Stadium
2002 · West Virginia 35, Cincinnati 32
Nippert Stadium

Evidence and sources

Evidence window: 2025 full season

Cincinnati: 13 games
West Virginia: 12 games

Forecast: 2026 game forecast · this game · Saturday Bias
Weather: 2026 game forecast · this game · NWS
The game in a minute: 2025 full season, garbage time included · compared with 2025 FBS teams · CFBD
When each team has the ball: 2025 full season, garbage time included · compared with 2025 FBS teams · CFBD
Where they attack: 2025 full season, garbage time included, regular season only · per team, not ranked · NCAA
Featured players: 2025 full season, garbage time included · per team, not ranked · CFBD
In the trenches: 2026 roster snapshot · compared with 2026 FBS teams · CFBD
Team profiles: 2025 season to date · compared with 2025 FBS teams · CFBD
Recent games: 2025 recent games, garbage time excluded · this game · CFBD
Coaching staff: 2026 coaching staff · per team, not ranked · CFBD (head coaches, SP+) and Wikipedia (coordinators)
Head-to-head: completed meetings since 2000 · games between these two programs · CFBD

Compare these teams

Game forecast

The game in a minute

Cincinnati's offense leads its matchup in scoring

West Virginia has no clear answer on this matchup

The forecast comes with a range

When each team has the ball

When Cincinnati has the ball

Cincinnati offense · 2025 season · 7 of the last 8 games · garbage time excluded

West Virginia defense · 2025 season · Last 8 games · garbage time excluded

When West Virginia has the ball

West Virginia offense · 2025 season · Last 8 games · garbage time excluded

Cincinnati defense · 2025 season · 7 of the last 8 games · garbage time excluded

Where they attack.

Throwing right

Who's driving the offense?

Brendan Sorsby

Tawee Walker

Cyrus Allen

Cincinnati player production

West Virginia player production

In the trenches

How these teams stack up

Cincinnati

West Virginia

Recruiting

Cincinnati

West Virginia

Season percentile profiles

Cincinnati

West Virginia

Cincinnati's recent games

vs Navy · neutral site

at TCU

vs BYU

The coaching staff

Cincinnati

West Virginia

Head-to-head

Evidence and sources