Saturday, October 17
Compare these teams
4–1
at
West Virginia
3–3
12:00 PM ETMilan Puskar StadiumMorgantown, WV
Partly cloudy47°FNW 15 mphGusts 23 mphPrecip 8%
At kickoff · 12:00 PM ET · Updated 2:21 PM ET · National Weather Service
Morgantown · local time (ET)
Kickoff hour
Partly cloudy47°FNW 15 mphGusts 23 mphPrecip 8%
Weather is not an input to the SBR forecast.
55%
Cincinnati win probability
West Virginia 45%
Cincinnati by 2.0
Projected margin
Margin uncertainty ±14.1 points
Published forecast · SBR sbr-2r · Model track record
01 · Cincinnati's case
Cincinnati's offense is in the 85th percentile for per play this season. West Virginia's defense is in the 12th percentile for PPA allowed.
See when each team has the ball02 · West Virginia's answer
West Virginia's offense is in the 77th percentile for points per game this season. Cincinnati's defense is in the 53rd percentile for per game.
See the underlying numbers03 · What could swing it
The model gives Cincinnati a 55% chance to win and predicts Cincinnati by 2.0 points. That margin has an uncertainty of ±14.1 points.
See the forecastOffensive efficiency meets defensive efficiency. Percentiles run from 0 to 100.
PPA and success rate: CFBD, 2026 season to date, garbage time included. Points per game: 2026 games so far. Percentiles and ranks are among 2026 teams.
PPA and success rate: CFBD, 2026 season to date, garbage time included. Points per game: 2026 games so far. Percentiles and ranks are among 2026 FBS teams.
Defense is oriented so a higher percentile is stronger.
Follow the direction. Check the production.
Offense moving upfield ↑
JC French IV · 92% of charted pass attempts
94 of 94 have a direction · 0 unknown, excluded · rounded
Charted 4 of 5 games
Efficiency charted in 4 of 5 games
Depth as written in the play-by-play: 83 short · 11 deep · 0 not stated
The Cincinnati offense in 2026
QB · 5 games
Photo: ESPN
86/123 · 70% season
Last game
Arizona · Oct 3, 2026: 16/29, 153 yds, 0 TD, 0 INT
RB · 5 games
Photo: ESPN
Last game
Arizona · Oct 3, 2026: 11 carries, 24 yds, 0 TD
WR · 5 games
Photo: ESPN
Last game
Arizona · Oct 3, 2026: 6 rec, 60 yds, 0 TD
Who is producing
2026 evidence · 5 games in this window · 5 with recorded rows in this view
Sorted by Completions and attempts, highest first
| Player | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| JC FrenchQB | 5 | 86 / 123 | 949 | 7.7 | 6 | 0 |
| Liam O'BrienQB | 1 | 5 / 5 | 18 | 3.6 | 0 | 0 |
| Samaj JonesQB | 1 | 2 / 2 | 9 | 4.5 | 0 | 0 |
| Malachi HenryWR | 1 | 1 / 1 | 8 | 8.0 | 0 | 0 |
4 players with recorded rows
Rows are recorded player-game box lines for the games listed above. A missing row is missing data, not proof that a player did not appear, and none of these figures describe targets, snaps, starters or availability.
Who is producing
2026 evidence · 6 games in this window · 6 with recorded rows in this view
Sorted by Completions and attempts, highest first
| Player | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Hawkins Jr.QB | 6 | 58 / 111 | 1,055 | 9.5 | 7 | 1 |
| Scotty Fox Jr.QB | 1 | 2 / 4 | 27 | 6.8 | 0 | 0 |
| Jyron HughleyQB | 1 | 1 / 1 | 27 | 27.0 | 1 | 0 |
3 players with recorded rows
Rows are recorded player-game box lines for the games listed above. A missing row is missing data, not proof that a player did not appear, and none of these figures describe targets, snaps, starters or availability.
Cincinnati's line averages 309.0 lbs against West Virginia's 272.1 lbs front — an edge of 36.9 lbs a man.
Typical FBS gap: 31.7 lbs.
Roster size is context. It isn't a forecast advantage.
| Matchup | O-line | D-line |
|---|---|---|
| Cincinnati OLCincinnati OL vs West Virginia DL | 309.0 lbs | 272.1 lbs |
| West Virginia OLWest Virginia OL vs Cincinnati DL | 301.3 lbs | 273.5 lbs |
Average listed roster weight, 2026 · bars run from 0 to 350 lbs.
2026 season. Percentiles and ranks are among 2026 FBS teams.
Recruited classes aren't the roster that takes the field.
Season percentiles · outward is stronger · recruiting and experience are context, not forecast weights
Cincinnati: solid line, circles · West Virginia: dashed line, squares
Most recent completed 2026 games · play stats exclude garbage time
Oct 3 · 45 recorded plays
L 7–34
29%
Success rate
−0.17
PPA / play
Sep 26 · 51 recorded plays
W 31–26
41%
Success rate
0.37
PPA / play
Sep 19 · 77 recorded plays
W 35–31
49%
Success rate
0.23
PPA / play
Nic Cardwell
Co-offensive coordinator · no career rating on file
Pete Thomas
no career rating on file
Cortney Braswell
Co-defensive coordinator · career +25.3 SP+ defense
Nate Woody
career +25.3 SP+ defense
2024 · West Virginia 31, Cincinnati 24
Nippert Stadium
2023 · West Virginia 42, Cincinnati 21
Milan Puskar Stadium
2011 · West Virginia 24, Cincinnati 21
2010 · West Virginia 37, Cincinnati 10
Milan Puskar Stadium
2009 · Cincinnati 24, West Virginia 21
Nippert Stadium
2008 · Cincinnati 26, West Virginia 23
Milan Puskar Stadium
2007 · West Virginia 28, Cincinnati 23
Nippert Stadium
2006 · West Virginia 42, Cincinnati 24
Milan Puskar Stadium
2005 · West Virginia 38, Cincinnati 0
Nippert Stadium
2003 · Cincinnati 15, West Virginia 13
Milan Puskar Stadium
2002 · West Virginia 35, Cincinnati 32
Nippert Stadium
Evidence window: 2026 season to date