2026 Cincinnati vs 2026 West Virginia
Hypothetical
62% to win
High confidence — 4 games in — see our accuracy
Hypothetical forecast · SBR sbr-2r
Why this number
How they're built
0–100 percentile · higher is stronger
Compare the whole profile, then explore each dimension.
- 2026 Cincinnati Offense · SP+ 2026: 31.6, 72nd percentile (2026 season to date)
- 2026 West Virginia Offense · SP+ 2026: 32.1, 74th percentile (2026 season to date)
- 2026 Cincinnati Defense · SP+ 2026: 26.5, 46th percentile (2026 season to date)
- 2026 West Virginia Defense · SP+ 2026: 32.9, 15th percentile (2026 season to date)
- 2026 Cincinnati Special teams · SP+ 2026: 0.2, 69th percentile (2026 season to date)
- 2026 West Virginia Special teams · SP+ 2026: 0.2, 69th percentile (2026 season to date)
- 2026 Cincinnati Recruiting · 2026 signing class: 199.9 pts, 58th percentile (2026 signing class)
- 2026 West Virginia Recruiting · 2026 signing class: 229.5 pts, 82nd percentile (2026 signing class)
- 2026 Cincinnati Experience · returning production 2026: 8% returning, 11th percentile (2026 roster)
- 2026 West Virginia Experience · returning production 2026: 14% returning, 18th percentile (2026 roster)
Offensive production relative to that season’s field. Compare an offense with the opposing defense in the scouting report.
Recruiting and experience add context; the five axes aren't equal weights in the forecast.
The numbers behind the profiles
| Measure | 2026 Cincinnati | 2026 West Virginia |
|---|---|---|
| Offensive / play | 0.2985th percentile | 0.1446th percentile |
| PPA allowed / play | 0.1328th percentile | 0.2012th percentile |
| Points per game | 33.865th percentile5 games | 36.377th percentile6 games |
| per game | 23.253rd percentile5 games | 32.79th percentile6 games |
Programs don't stand still
SP+ percentile among FBS teams, by season. The marked point is each compared season.
Momentum
Talent in, results out
Recruiting-class percentile feeding each roster, compared with its SP+ result.
- Average signing-class percentile, classes 2023–2026
- 55th percentile
- SP+ percentile, 2026
- 61st percentile
- Average signing-class percentile, classes 2023–2026
- 70th percentile
- SP+ percentile, 2026
- 47th percentile
Campus distance
245 miles apart
There's more to the matchup.
Supporting context, ready when you want it.
In the trenches · both directions
| Matchup | O-line | D-line |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 Cincinnati OL vs 2026 West Virginia DL | 309.0 lbs | 272.1 lbs |
| 2026 West Virginia OL vs 2026 Cincinnati DL | 301.3 lbs | 273.5 lbs |
2026 Cincinnati line yards 3.59 · 2026 West Virginia stuff rate 22.5%
2026 West Virginia line yards 3.20 · 2026 Cincinnati stuff rate 19.5%
Fans swear big lines win games. They're half right — big-line teams do win more, but only because good programs recruit big linemen. Once we account for talent and last season, line size adds nothing to the prediction. Across 11 seasons, no measurable effect on margin.
Roster size is context. It isn't a forecast advantage.
Backtested effect: 0.42 pts at 1σ.
Head-to-head · West Virginia leads 8–3 since 2000
West Virginia has won 4 straight
| Season | Score | Venue |
|---|---|---|
| 2024 | Cincinnati 24–31 West Virginia | Nippert Stadium · Cincinnati home |
| 2023 | Cincinnati 21–42 West Virginia | Milan Puskar Stadium · West Virginia home |
| 2011 | Cincinnati 21–24 West Virginia | Cincinnati home |
| 2010 | Cincinnati 10–37 West Virginia | Milan Puskar Stadium · West Virginia home |
| 2009 | Cincinnati 24–21 West Virginia | Nippert Stadium · Cincinnati home |
| 2008 | Cincinnati 26–23 West Virginia | Milan Puskar Stadium · West Virginia home |
| 2007 | Cincinnati 23–28 West Virginia | Nippert Stadium · Cincinnati home |
| 2006 | Cincinnati 24–42 West Virginia | Milan Puskar Stadium · West Virginia home |
| 2005 | Cincinnati 0–38 West Virginia | Nippert Stadium · Cincinnati home |
| 2003 | Cincinnati 15–13 West Virginia | Milan Puskar Stadium · West Virginia home |
| 2002 | Cincinnati 32–35 West Virginia | Nippert Stadium · Cincinnati home |
Coaching & program context
HC
- Scott Satterfield
OC
- Nic Cardwell (co-OC)
- Pete Thomas
no career track record on file
Scheme: Spread option (listed on Wikipedia)
Style: Run-heavy, average pace (threw on 40% of its run–pass plays, 22nd percentile of 2026 FBS; 65.2 plays a game, 34th percentile)
DC
- Cortney Braswell (co-DC)
- Nate Woody
career average +25.3 SP+ defense
Scheme: 3–4 (listed on Wikipedia)
HC
- Rich Rodriguez
OC: no staff data on file
Scheme: Spread option (listed on Wikipedia)
Style: Run-heavy, up-tempo (threw on 25% of its run–pass plays, 3rd percentile of 2026 FBS; 77.5 plays a game, 97th percentile)
DC
- Zac Alley
career average +24.6 SP+ defense
Scheme: Multiple 4–2–5 (listed on Wikipedia)
A new coordinator feels like it should swing a game. Across 11 seasons, the change doesn't move the final margin beyond what the roster already tells us. Shown as context, not a factor in our number.
Run-heavy team meets a defense that can't stop the run — feels like extra points waiting. Across 7 seasons the matchup adds nothing beyond what the two ratings already say; if anything the point estimate leans the other way.
Watching the next one?
Cincinnati at West Virginia · October 17, 2026
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