Saturday, October 17

UTEP

1–5

San José State

3–3

9:00 PM ET7:00 PM MTSun BowlEl Paso, TX

Weather

Chance of rain60°FE 9 mphGusts 16 mphPrecip 29%

At kickoff · 7:00 PM MT · Updated 12:27 PM MT · National Weather Service

Hour by hour

El Paso · local time (MT)

Kickoff hour

Chance of rain60°FE 9 mphGusts 16 mphPrecip 29%

Weather is not an input to the SBR forecast.

Game forecast

23%

UTEP win probability

San José State 77%

San José State by 10.2

Projected margin

Margin uncertainty ±14.0 points

Published forecast · SBR sbr-2r · Model track record

The game in a minute

01 · UTEP's case

No clear statistical strength for UTEP yet

In every matchup we can rate this season, the UTEP unit ranks well below the San José State unit it faces.

See when each team has the ball

02 · San José State's answer

San José State's defense leads its matchup in per-play efficiency

San José State's defense is in the 55th percentile for allowed per play this season. UTEP's offense is in the 0th percentile for PPA per play.

See when each team has the ball

03 · What could swing it

UTEP leans on its top passer

UTEP's leading passer has thrown 65% of the team's charted attempts this season.

See where they attack

When each team has the ball

Offensive efficiency meets defensive efficiency. Percentiles run from 0 to 100.

When UTEP has the ball

UTEP offense: 0th
San José State defense: 55th

Show the underlying numbers

UTEP offensive PPA per play: −0.180th percentile · #138 nationally
San José State PPA allowed per play: 0.0555th percentile · #59 nationally
UTEP: 33%2nd percentile · #135 nationally
San José State success rate allowed: 44%23rd percentile · #107 nationally
UTEP points per game: 15.84th percentile · #132 nationally
San José State per game: 23.548th percentile · #71 nationally

PPA and success rate: CFBD, 2026 season to date, garbage time included. Points per game: 2026 games so far. Percentiles and ranks are among 2026 teams.

UTEP offense · Last 6 games · garbage time excluded

Explosiveness: 1.33
Rush success: 31.7%

San José State defense · 5 of the last 6 games · garbage time excluded

Explosiveness allowed: 1.05
Rush success allowed: 45.7%

When San José State has the ball

San José State offense: 35th
UTEP defense: 7th

Show the underlying numbers

San José State offensive PPA per play: 0.1035th percentile · #87 nationally
UTEP PPA allowed per play: 0.247th percentile · #128 nationally
San José State success rate: 40%26th percentile · #102 nationally
UTEP success rate allowed: 47%8th percentile · #127 nationally
San José State points per game: 21.018th percentile · #114 nationally
UTEP points allowed per game: 39.52nd percentile · #135 nationally

PPA and success rate: CFBD, 2026 season to date, garbage time included. Points per game: 2026 games so far. Percentiles and ranks are among 2026 FBS teams.

San José State offense · Last 6 games · garbage time excluded

Explosiveness: 1.13
Rush success: 34.6%

UTEP defense · 5 of the last 6 games · garbage time excluded

Explosiveness allowed: 1.21
Rush success allowed: 48.6%

Defense is oriented so a higher percentile is stronger.

Where they attack.

Follow the direction. Check the production.

Share of charted attemptsDirectional schematic

Offense moving upfield ↑

Select left, middle or right. The paths show direction only; alignment, routes and throw depth are schematic.

EJ Colson Jr. · 65% of charted pass attempts

Throwing left

Share of charted plays: 49%
Usage: charted in this direction: 31 attempts
Yards / attempt: 4.1; over 30 attempts with a result
Completion rate: 60%; over 30 attempts with a result

63 of 65 have a direction · 2 unknown, excluded · rounded

Charted 5 of 6 games

Efficiency charted in 5 of 6 games

Depth as written in the play-by-play: 57 short · 6 deep · 2 not stated

What to watch

Most charted attempts go left (49%). Middle gives the most yards per attempt: 13.7 over 15 attempts with a result.

Who's driving the offense?

The UTEP offense in 2026

EJ Colson Jr.

QB · 5 games

Photo: ESPN

49/77 · 64% season

Passing yards: 541
Touchdowns: 7
Interceptions: 3

Last game

New Mexico · Oct 3, 2026: 6/12, 45 yds, 0 TD, 1 INT

EJ Colson

QB · 5 games

Photo: ESPN

Carries: 67
Rushing yards: 93
Touchdown: 1

Last game

New Mexico · Oct 3, 2026: 8 carries, 24 yds, 0 TD

Carver Cheeks

WR · 6 games

Photo: ESPN

Receptions: 16
Receiving yards: 179
Touchdowns: 3

Last game

Nevada · Oct 10, 2026: 3 rec, 11 yds, 0 TD

UTEP player tables

Who is producing

UTEP player production

2026 evidence · 6 games in this window · 6 with recorded rows in this view

UTEP — Passing production
Player
EJ ColsonQB	5	49 / 77	541	7.0	7	3
Raymond Moore IIIQB	5	25 / 44	210	4.8	2	2
Braesen LeonQB	1	1 / 1	22	22.0	0	0
Jaden SmithWR	1	1 / 1	8	8.0	0	0

4 players with recorded rows

Rows are recorded player-game box lines for the games listed above. A missing row is missing data, not proof that a player did not appear, and none of these figures describe targets, snaps, starters or availability.

San José State player tables

Who is producing

San José State player production

2026 evidence · 6 games in this window · 6 with recorded rows in this view

San José State — Passing production
Player
Luke WeaverQB	6	132 / 209	1,529	7.3	11	6
Tama AmisoneWR	1	0 / 1	0	0.0	0	0

2 players with recorded rows

In the trenches

UTEP's line averages 297.6 lbs against San José State's 269.6 lbs front — an edge of 28.0 lbs a man.

Typical FBS gap: 31.7 lbs.

Roster size is context. It isn't a forecast advantage.

Matchup	O-line	D-line
UTEP OLUTEP OL vs San José State DL	297.6 lbs	269.6 lbs
San José State OLSan José State OL vs UTEP DL	287.6 lbs	257.2 lbs

UTEP
San José State

Average listed roster weight, 2026 · bars run from 0 to 350 lbs.

How these teams stack up

2026 season. Percentiles and ranks are among 2026 FBS teams.

UTEP

Points per game: 15.8#132 nationally · 4th percentile · 6 games
Points allowed per game: 39.5#135 nationally · 2nd percentile · 6 games
Returning production: 0% of 2025 PPA returns · 0th percentile
Upperclassmen: 40% · 110 of 110 with a class year

San José State

Points per game: 21.0#114 nationally · 18th percentile · 6 games
Points allowed per game: 23.5#71 nationally · 48th percentile · 6 games
Returning production: 4% of 2025 PPA returns · 6th percentile
Upperclassmen: 50% · 103 of 103 with a class year

Recruiting

UTEP

2026 signing class · #92 nationally: 34th percentile · 179.6 pts
4-year recruiting composite (Saturday Bias) · classes 2023–2026 · #80 nationally: 42nd percentile · −0.39 (0 is the FBS average)
Roster talent (CFBD Team Talent) · 2026 · #102 nationally: 26th percentile · 585.8

San José State

2026 signing class · #129 nationally: 7th percentile · 158.7 pts
4-year recruiting composite (Saturday Bias) · classes 2023–2026 · #118 nationally: 15th percentile · −0.90 (0 is the FBS average)
Roster talent (CFBD Team Talent) · 2026 · #110 nationally: 20th percentile · 569.3

Recruited classes aren't the roster that takes the field.

Season percentile profiles

Season percentiles · outward is stronger · recruiting and experience are context, not forecast weights

UTEP: solid line, circles · San José State: dashed line, squares

UTEP

Offense · 2026: 13.3 · 4th percentile; CFBD, 2026 season to date
Defense · SP+ 2026: 37.4 · 4th percentile; CFBD, 2026 season to date
Special teams · SP+ 2026: −0.5 · 0th percentile; CFBD, 2026 season to date
Recruiting · 2026 signing class: 179.6 pts · 34th percentile; CFBD, 2026 signing class
Experience · returning production 2026: 0% returning · 0th percentile; CFBD, 2026 roster

San José State

Offense · SP+ 2026: 16.0 · 9th percentile; CFBD, 2026 season to date
Defense · SP+ 2026: 27.9 · 39th percentile; CFBD, 2026 season to date
Special teams · SP+ 2026: −0.3 · 12th percentile; CFBD, 2026 season to date
Recruiting · 2026 signing class: 158.7 pts · 7th percentile; CFBD, 2026 signing class
Experience · returning production 2026: 4% returning · 6th percentile; CFBD, 2026 roster

UTEP's recent games

Most recent completed 2026 games · play stats exclude garbage time

Oct 10 · 43 recorded plays
vs Nevada
L 13–30
19%
Success rate
−0.10
PPA / play
Oct 3 · 38 recorded plays
at New Mexico
L 7–61
24%
Success rate
−0.44
PPA / play
Sep 26 · 41 recorded plays
vs Oregon State
L 7–33
29%
Success rate
−0.22
PPA / play

The coaching staff

UTEP

Head coach: Scotty Walden
career −16.0 SP+ overall
Photo: Staff Sgt. Felix Mena, Public domain
Offensive coordinator: Joe Pappalardo
Co-offensive coordinator · no career rating on file; Lanear Sampson
no career rating on file
Defensive coordinator: Kelvin Sigler
Co-defensive coordinator · career +35.3 SP+ defense; Kyle Beyer
career +35.3 SP+ defense

San José State

Head coach: Ken Niumatalolo
career −3.4 SP+ overall
Photo: United States Naval Academy Photo Archive, Public domain
Offensive coordinator: Not on file
Defensive coordinator: Not on file

Head-to-head

San José State leads 3–2 since 2000

2004 · UTEP 38, San José State 20
CEFCU Stadium
2003 · San José State 69, UTEP 41
Sun Bowl
2002 · San José State 58, UTEP 24
CEFCU Stadium
2001 · San José State 40, UTEP 28
2000 · UTEP 47, San José State 30

Evidence and sources

Evidence window: 2026 season to date

UTEP: 6 games
San José State: 6 games

Forecast: 2026 game forecast · this game · Saturday Bias
Weather: 2026 game forecast · this game · NWS
The game in a minute: 2026 season to date, garbage time included · compared with 2026 FBS teams · CFBD
When each team has the ball: 2026 season to date, garbage time included · compared with 2026 FBS teams · CFBD
Where they attack: 2026 season to date, garbage time included, regular season only · per team, not ranked · NCAA
Featured players: 2026 season to date, garbage time included · per team, not ranked · CFBD
In the trenches: 2026 roster snapshot · compared with 2026 FBS teams · CFBD
Team profiles: 2026 season to date · compared with 2026 FBS teams · CFBD
Recent games: 2026 recent games, garbage time excluded · this game · CFBD
Coaching staff: 2026 coaching staff · per team, not ranked · CFBD (head coaches, SP+) and Wikipedia (coordinators)
Head-to-head: completed meetings since 2000 · games between these two programs · CFBD

Compare these teams

Game forecast

The game in a minute

No clear statistical strength for UTEP yet

San José State's defense leads its matchup in per-play efficiency

UTEP leans on its top passer

When each team has the ball

When UTEP has the ball

UTEP offense · Last 6 games · garbage time excluded

San José State defense · 5 of the last 6 games · garbage time excluded

When San José State has the ball

San José State offense · Last 6 games · garbage time excluded

UTEP defense · 5 of the last 6 games · garbage time excluded

Where they attack.

Throwing left

Who's driving the offense?

EJ Colson Jr.

EJ Colson

Carver Cheeks

UTEP player production

San José State player production

In the trenches

How these teams stack up

UTEP

San José State

Recruiting

UTEP

San José State

Season percentile profiles

UTEP

San José State

UTEP's recent games

vs Nevada

at New Mexico

vs Oregon State

The coaching staff

UTEP

San José State

Head-to-head

Evidence and sources