2026 UTEP vs 2026 San José State
Hypothetical
82% to win
High confidence — 5 games in — see our accuracy
Hypothetical forecast · SBR sbr-2r
Why this number
How they're built
0–100 percentile · higher is stronger
Compare the whole profile, then explore each dimension.
- 2026 UTEP Offense · SP+ 2026: 13.3, 4th percentile (2026 season to date)
- 2026 San José State Offense · SP+ 2026: 16.0, 9th percentile (2026 season to date)
- 2026 UTEP Defense · SP+ 2026: 37.4, 4th percentile (2026 season to date)
- 2026 San José State Defense · SP+ 2026: 27.9, 39th percentile (2026 season to date)
- 2026 UTEP Special teams · SP+ 2026: −0.5, 0th percentile (2026 season to date)
- 2026 San José State Special teams · SP+ 2026: −0.3, 12th percentile (2026 season to date)
- 2026 UTEP Recruiting · 2026 signing class: 179.6 pts, 34th percentile (2026 signing class)
- 2026 San José State Recruiting · 2026 signing class: 158.7 pts, 7th percentile (2026 signing class)
- 2026 UTEP Experience · returning production 2026: 0% returning, 0th percentile (2026 roster)
- 2026 San José State Experience · returning production 2026: 4% returning, 6th percentile (2026 roster)
Offensive production relative to that season’s field. Compare an offense with the opposing defense in the scouting report.
Recruiting and experience add context; the five axes aren't equal weights in the forecast.
The numbers behind the profiles
| Measure | 2026 UTEP | 2026 San José State |
|---|---|---|
| Offensive / play | −0.180th percentile | 0.1035th percentile |
| PPA allowed / play | 0.247th percentile | 0.0555th percentile |
| Points per game | 15.84th percentile6 games | 21.018th percentile6 games |
| per game | 39.52nd percentile6 games | 23.548th percentile6 games |
Programs don't stand still
SP+ percentile among FBS teams, by season. The marked point is each compared season.
Momentum
Talent in, results out
Recruiting-class percentile feeding each roster, compared with its SP+ result.
- Average signing-class percentile, classes 2023–2026
- 33rd percentile
- SP+ percentile, 2026
- 3rd percentile
- Average signing-class percentile, classes 2023–2026
- 15th percentile
- SP+ percentile, 2026
- 18th percentile
Campus distance
955 miles apart
There's more to the matchup.
Supporting context, ready when you want it.
In the trenches · both directions
| Matchup | O-line | D-line |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 UTEP OL vs 2026 San José State DL | 297.6 lbs | 269.6 lbs |
| 2026 San José State OL vs 2026 UTEP DL | 287.6 lbs | 257.2 lbs |
2026 UTEP line yards 2.53 · 2026 San José State stuff rate 15.4%
2026 San José State line yards 3.01 · 2026 UTEP stuff rate 19.7%
Fans swear big lines win games. They're half right — big-line teams do win more, but only because good programs recruit big linemen. Once we account for talent and last season, line size adds nothing to the prediction. Across 11 seasons, no measurable effect on margin.
Roster size is context. It isn't a forecast advantage.
Backtested effect: 0.42 pts at 1σ.
Head-to-head · San José State leads 3–2 since 2000
UTEP has won 1 straight
| Season | Score | Venue |
|---|---|---|
| 2004 | UTEP 38–20 San José State | CEFCU Stadium · San José State home |
| 2003 | UTEP 41–69 San José State | Sun Bowl · UTEP home |
| 2002 | UTEP 24–58 San José State | CEFCU Stadium · San José State home |
| 2001 | UTEP 28–40 San José State | UTEP home |
| 2000 | UTEP 47–30 San José State | San José State home |
Coaching & program context
HC
- Scotty Walden
OC
- Joe Pappalardo (co-OC)
- Lanear Sampson
no career track record on file
Scheme: no scheme listed
Style: Run-heavy, grind-it-out (threw on 38% of its run–pass plays, 13th percentile of 2026 FBS; 55.3 plays a game, 0th percentile)
DC
- Kelvin Sigler (co-DC)
- Kyle Beyer
career average +35.3 SP+ defense
Scheme: no scheme listed
HC
- Ken Niumatalolo
OC: no staff data on file
Style: Pass-heavy, average pace (threw on 52% of its run–pass plays, 85th percentile of 2026 FBS; 68.5 plays a game, 59th percentile)
DC: no staff data on file
A new coordinator feels like it should swing a game. Across 11 seasons, the change doesn't move the final margin beyond what the roster already tells us. Shown as context, not a factor in our number.
Run-heavy team meets a defense that can't stop the run — feels like extra points waiting. Across 7 seasons the matchup adds nothing beyond what the two ratings already say; if anything the point estimate leans the other way.
Watching the next one?
San José State at UTEP · October 17, 2026
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