Saturday, October 17
Compare these teams
3–3
at
UTEP
1–5
9:00 PM ET7:00 PM MTSun BowlEl Paso, TX
Chance of rain60°FE 9 mphGusts 16 mphPrecip 29%
At kickoff · 7:00 PM MT · Updated 12:27 PM MT · National Weather Service
El Paso · local time (MT)
Kickoff hour
Chance of rain60°FE 9 mphGusts 16 mphPrecip 29%
Weather is not an input to the SBR forecast.
Evidence sections show 2025 background.
77%
San José State win probability
UTEP 23%
San José State by 10.2
Projected margin
Margin uncertainty ±14.0 points
Published forecast · SBR sbr-2r · Model track record
01 · San José State's case
San José State's defense was in the 39th percentile for success rate allowed last season. UTEP's offense was in the 1st percentile for success rate.
See the underlying numbers02 · UTEP's answer
UTEP's defense was in the 67th percentile for allowed per play last season. San José State's offense was in the 48th percentile for PPA per play.
See when each team has the ball03 · What could swing it
The model gives San José State a 77% chance to win and predicts San José State by 10.2 points. That margin has an uncertainty of ±14.0 points.
See the forecastOffensive efficiency meets defensive efficiency. Percentiles run from 0 to 100.
PPA and success rate: CFBD, 2025 full season, garbage time included. Points per game: every 2025 game. Percentiles and ranks are among 2025 teams.
PPA and success rate: CFBD, 2025 full season, garbage time included. Points per game: every 2025 game. Percentiles and ranks are among 2025 FBS teams.
Defense is oriented so a higher percentile is stronger.
Follow the direction. Check the production.
Offense moving upfield ↑
Walker Eget · 81% of charted pass attempts
383 of 394 have a direction · 11 unknown, excluded · rounded
Charted 12 of 12 games
Efficiency charted in 12 of 12 games
Depth as written in the play-by-play: 302 short · 81 deep · 11 not stated
The San José State offense in 2025
QB · 11 games
232/393 · 59% season
Last game
San Diego State · Nov 22, 2025: 4/8, 32 yds, 0 TD, 1 INT
RB · 8 games
Last game
Fresno State · Nov 29, 2025: 9 carries, 50 yds, 0 TD
WR · 12 games
Last game
Fresno State · Nov 29, 2025: 4 rec, 57 yds, 0 TD
Who is producing
2025 evidence · 12 games in this window · 12 with recorded rows in this view
Sorted by Completions and attempts, highest first
| Player | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Walker EgetQB | 11 | 232 / 393 | 3,058 | 7.8 | 17 | 9 |
| Tama AmisoneQB | 5 | 26 / 50 | 205 | 4.1 | 0 | 3 |
| Xavier WardQB | 3 | 12 / 32 | 116 | 3.6 | 0 | 4 |
| Robert McDanielQB | 3 | 3 / 11 | 19 | 1.7 | 0 | 1 |
4 players with recorded rows
Rows are recorded player-game box lines for the games listed above. A missing row is missing data, not proof that a player did not appear, and none of these figures describe targets, snaps, starters or availability.
Who is producing
2025 evidence · 12 games in this window · 12 with recorded rows in this view
Sorted by Completions and attempts, highest first
| Player | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Skyler LocklearQB | 9 | 117 / 211 | 1,418 | 6.7 | 13 | 11 |
| Malachi NelsonQB | 6 | 104 / 190 | 1,163 | 6.1 | 8 | 9 |
| Shay SmithQB | 3 | 3 / 8 | 14 | 1.8 | 0 | 0 |
| Wondame Davis Jr.WR | 1 | 0 / 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
4 players with recorded rows
Rows are recorded player-game box lines for the games listed above. A missing row is missing data, not proof that a player did not appear, and none of these figures describe targets, snaps, starters or availability.
San José State's line averages 287.6 lbs against UTEP's 257.2 lbs front — an edge of 30.4 lbs a man.
Typical FBS gap: 31.7 lbs.
Roster size is context. It isn't a forecast advantage.
| Matchup | O-line | D-line |
|---|---|---|
| San José State OLSan José State OL vs UTEP DL | 287.6 lbs | 257.2 lbs |
| UTEP OLUTEP OL vs San José State DL | 297.6 lbs | 269.6 lbs |
Average listed roster weight, 2026 · bars run from 0 to 350 lbs.
2025 season. Percentiles and ranks are among 2025 FBS teams.
Recruited classes aren't the roster that takes the field.
Season percentiles · outward is stronger · recruiting and experience are context, not forecast weights
San José State: solid line, circles · UTEP: dashed line, squares
Most recent completed 2025 games · play stats exclude garbage time
Nov 29 · 58 recorded plays
L 14–41
33%
Success rate
−0.20
PPA / play
Nov 22 · 76 recorded plays
L 3–25
42%
Success rate
0.01
PPA / play
Nov 15 · 34 recorded plays
L 10–55
26%
Success rate
−0.20
PPA / play
Ken Niumatalolo
career −3.4 SP+ overall
Photo: United States Naval Academy Photo Archive, Public domain
Joe Pappalardo
Co-offensive coordinator · no career rating on file
Lanear Sampson
no career rating on file
Kelvin Sigler
Co-defensive coordinator · career +35.3 SP+ defense
Kyle Beyer
career +35.3 SP+ defense
2004 · UTEP 38, San José State 20
CEFCU Stadium
2003 · San José State 69, UTEP 41
Sun Bowl
2002 · San José State 58, UTEP 24
CEFCU Stadium
2001 · San José State 40, UTEP 28
2000 · UTEP 47, San José State 30
Evidence window: 2025 full season