2026 San José State vs 2026 UTEP

Hypothetical

San José State by 12.7

82% to win

High confidence — 5 games in — see our accuracy

Hypothetical forecast · SBR sbr-2r

Why this number

San José StatePreseason baseline −8.7In-season results +2.3

UTEPIn-season results −9.8Preseason baseline −9.3

Neutral site

How they're built

0–100 percentile · higher is stronger

Compare the whole profile, then explore each dimension.

Offensive production relative to that season’s field. Compare an offense with the opposing defense in the scouting report.

Recruiting and experience add context; the five axes aren't equal weights in the forecast.

The numbers behind the profiles

Measure	2026 San José State	2026 UTEP
Offensive / play	0.1035th percentile	−0.180th percentile
PPA allowed / play	0.0555th percentile	0.247th percentile
Points per game	21.018th percentile6 games	15.84th percentile6 games
per game	23.548th percentile6 games	39.52nd percentile6 games

Programs don't stand still

SP+ percentile among FBS teams, by season. The marked point is each compared season.

2026 San José State2026 UTEP

Momentum

San José State↘ falling (−14 pctl over 3 seasons)

UTEP→ steady (0 pctl over 3 seasons)

Talent in, results out

Recruiting-class percentile feeding each roster, compared with its SP+ result.

2026 San José State

Average signing-class percentile, classes 2023–2026: 15th percentile
SP+ percentile, 2026: 18th percentile

Matching its talent (+3)

2026 UTEP

Average signing-class percentile, classes 2023–2026: 33rd percentile
SP+ percentile, 2026: 3rd percentile

Underperforming its talent (−30)

Campus distance

955 miles apart

There's more to the matchup.

Supporting context, ready when you want it.

In the trenches · both directions

Matchup	O-line	D-line
2026 San José State OL vs 2026 UTEP DL	287.6 lbs	257.2 lbs
2026 UTEP OL vs 2026 San José State DL	297.6 lbs	269.6 lbs

2026 San José State line yards 3.01 · 2026 UTEP stuff rate 19.7%

2026 UTEP line yards 2.53 · 2026 San José State stuff rate 15.4%

Fans swear big lines win games. They're half right — big-line teams do win more, but only because good programs recruit big linemen. Once we account for talent and last season, line size adds nothing to the prediction. Across 11 seasons, no measurable effect on margin.

Roster size is context. It isn't a forecast advantage.

Backtested effect: 0.42 pts at 1σ.

Head-to-head · San José State leads 3–2 since 2000

UTEP has won 1 straight

Season	Score	Venue
2004	San José State 20–38 UTEP	CEFCU Stadium · San José State home
2003	San José State 69–41 UTEP	Sun Bowl · UTEP home
2002	San José State 58–24 UTEP	CEFCU Stadium · San José State home
2001	San José State 40–28 UTEP	UTEP home
2000	San José State 30–47 UTEP	San José State home

Coaching & program context

2026 San José State

Ken Niumatalolo

OC: no staff data on file

Style: Pass-heavy, average pace (threw on 52% of its run–pass plays, 85th percentile of 2026 FBS; 68.5 plays a game, 59th percentile)

DC: no staff data on file

2026 UTEP

Scotty Walden

Joe Pappalardo (co-OC)
Lanear Sampson

no career track record on file

Scheme: no scheme listed

Style: Run-heavy, grind-it-out (threw on 38% of its run–pass plays, 13th percentile of 2026 FBS; 55.3 plays a game, 0th percentile)

Kelvin Sigler (co-DC)
Kyle Beyer

career average +35.3 SP+ defense

Scheme: no scheme listed

A new coordinator feels like it should swing a game. Across 11 seasons, the change doesn't move the final margin beyond what the roster already tells us. Shown as context, not a factor in our number.

Run-heavy team meets a defense that can't stop the run — feels like extra points waiting. Across 7 seasons the matchup adds nothing beyond what the two ratings already say; if anything the point estimate leans the other way.