Saturday, October 17
Compare these teams
3–3
at
UTEP
1–5
9:00 PM ET7:00 PM MTSun BowlEl Paso, TX
Chance of rain60°FE 9 mphGusts 16 mphPrecip 29%
At kickoff · 7:00 PM MT · Updated 12:27 PM MT · National Weather Service
El Paso · local time (MT)
Kickoff hour
Chance of rain60°FE 9 mphGusts 16 mphPrecip 29%
Weather is not an input to the SBR forecast.
77%
San José State win probability
UTEP 23%
San José State by 10.2
Projected margin
Margin uncertainty ±14.0 points
Published forecast · SBR sbr-2r · Model track record
01 · San José State's case
San José State's defense is in the 55th percentile for allowed per play this season. UTEP's offense is in the 0th percentile for PPA per play.
See when each team has the ball02 · UTEP's answer
In every matchup we can rate this season, the UTEP unit ranks well below the San José State unit it faces.
See when each team has the ball03 · What could swing it
The model gives San José State a 77% chance to win and predicts San José State by 10.2 points. That margin has an uncertainty of ±14.0 points.
See the forecastOffensive efficiency meets defensive efficiency. Percentiles run from 0 to 100.
PPA and success rate: CFBD, 2026 season to date, garbage time included. Points per game: 2026 games so far. Percentiles and ranks are among 2026 teams.
PPA and success rate: CFBD, 2026 season to date, garbage time included. Points per game: 2026 games so far. Percentiles and ranks are among 2026 FBS teams.
Defense is oriented so a higher percentile is stronger.
Follow the direction. Check the production.
Offense moving upfield ↑
Luke Weaver · 99% of charted pass attempts
138 of 143 have a direction · 5 unknown, excluded · rounded
Charted 4 of 6 games
Efficiency charted in 4 of 6 games
Depth as written in the play-by-play: 117 short · 21 deep · 5 not stated
What to watch
Most charted attempts go right (49%). Middle gives the most yards per attempt: 11.9 over 28 attempts with a result.
The San José State offense in 2026
QB · 6 games
Photo: ESPN
132/209 · 63% season
Last game
Wyoming · Oct 9, 2026: 26/38, 251 yds, 0 TD, 1 INT
RB · 6 games
Photo: ESPN
Last game
Wyoming · Oct 9, 2026: 16 carries, 69 yds, 1 TD
WR · 6 games
Photo: ESPN
Last game
Wyoming · Oct 9, 2026: 8 rec, 91 yds, 0 TD
Who is producing
2026 evidence · 6 games in this window · 6 with recorded rows in this view
Sorted by Completions and attempts, highest first
| Player | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Luke WeaverQB | 6 | 132 / 209 | 1,529 | 7.3 | 11 | 6 |
| Tama AmisoneWR | 1 | 0 / 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
2 players with recorded rows
Rows are recorded player-game box lines for the games listed above. A missing row is missing data, not proof that a player did not appear, and none of these figures describe targets, snaps, starters or availability.
Who is producing
2026 evidence · 6 games in this window · 6 with recorded rows in this view
Sorted by Completions and attempts, highest first
| Player | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EJ ColsonQB | 5 | 49 / 77 | 541 | 7.0 | 7 | 3 |
| Raymond Moore IIIQB | 5 | 25 / 44 | 210 | 4.8 | 2 | 2 |
| Braesen LeonQB | 1 | 1 / 1 | 22 | 22.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jaden SmithWR | 1 | 1 / 1 | 8 | 8.0 | 0 | 0 |
4 players with recorded rows
Rows are recorded player-game box lines for the games listed above. A missing row is missing data, not proof that a player did not appear, and none of these figures describe targets, snaps, starters or availability.
San José State's line averages 287.6 lbs against UTEP's 257.2 lbs front — an edge of 30.4 lbs a man.
Typical FBS gap: 31.7 lbs.
Roster size is context. It isn't a forecast advantage.
| Matchup | O-line | D-line |
|---|---|---|
| San José State OLSan José State OL vs UTEP DL | 287.6 lbs | 257.2 lbs |
| UTEP OLUTEP OL vs San José State DL | 297.6 lbs | 269.6 lbs |
Average listed roster weight, 2026 · bars run from 0 to 350 lbs.
2026 season. Percentiles and ranks are among 2026 FBS teams.
Recruited classes aren't the roster that takes the field.
Season percentiles · outward is stronger · recruiting and experience are context, not forecast weights
San José State: solid line, circles · UTEP: dashed line, squares
Most recent completed 2026 games · play stats exclude garbage time
Oct 9 · 65 recorded plays
L 13–16
46%
Success rate
0.12
PPA / play
Oct 3 · 63 recorded plays
W 20–16
37%
Success rate
0.16
PPA / play
Sep 19 · 70 recorded plays
L 10–26
33%
Success rate
−0.17
PPA / play
Ken Niumatalolo
career −3.4 SP+ overall
Photo: United States Naval Academy Photo Archive, Public domain
Joe Pappalardo
Co-offensive coordinator · no career rating on file
Lanear Sampson
no career rating on file
Kelvin Sigler
Co-defensive coordinator · career +35.3 SP+ defense
Kyle Beyer
career +35.3 SP+ defense
2004 · UTEP 38, San José State 20
CEFCU Stadium
2003 · San José State 69, UTEP 41
Sun Bowl
2002 · San José State 58, UTEP 24
CEFCU Stadium
2001 · San José State 40, UTEP 28
2000 · UTEP 47, San José State 30
Evidence window: 2026 season to date