Saturday, October 17

UCLA

5–0 · AP #12

Wisconsin

4–1

7:30 PM ET4:30 PM PTRose BowlPasadena, CA

Weather

Clear86°FS 3 mphGusts 10 mphPrecip 0%

At kickoff · 4:30 PM PT · Updated 1:02 PM PT · National Weather Service

Hour by hour

Pasadena · local time (PT)

Kickoff hour

Clear86°FS 3 mphGusts 10 mphPrecip 0%

Weather is not an input to the SBR forecast.

Evidence sections show 2025 background.

Game forecast

61%

UCLA win probability

Wisconsin 39%

UCLA by 3.8

Projected margin

Margin uncertainty ±14.2 points

Published forecast · SBR sbr-2r · Model track record

The game in a minute

01 · UCLA's case

UCLA's offense leads its matchup in

UCLA's offense was in the 40th percentile for success rate last season. Wisconsin's defense was in the 16th percentile for success rate allowed.

See the underlying numbers

02 · Wisconsin's answer

Wisconsin's defense leads its matchup in

Wisconsin's defense was in the 72nd percentile for points allowed per game last season. UCLA's offense was in the 7th percentile for points per game.

See the underlying numbers

03 · What could swing it

The forecast comes with a range

The model gives UCLA a 61% chance to win and predicts UCLA by 3.8 points. That margin has an uncertainty of ±14.2 points.

See the forecast

When each team has the ball

Offensive efficiency meets defensive efficiency. Percentiles run from 0 to 100.

When UCLA has the ball

UCLA offense: 30th
Wisconsin defense: 40th

Show the underlying numbers

UCLA offensive per play: 0.1230th percentile · #93 nationally
Wisconsin PPA allowed per play: 0.1740th percentile · #76 nationally
UCLA success rate: 41%40th percentile · #82 nationally
Wisconsin success rate allowed: 45%16th percentile · #115 nationally
UCLA points per game: 18.27th percentile · #125 nationally
Wisconsin points allowed per game: 21.672nd percentile · #39 nationally

PPA and success rate: CFBD, 2025 full season, garbage time included. Points per game: every 2025 game. Percentiles and ranks are among 2025 teams.

UCLA offense · 2025 season · Last 8 games · garbage time excluded

Explosiveness: 1.17
Rush success: 44.9%

Wisconsin defense · 2025 season · Last 8 games · garbage time excluded

Explosiveness allowed: 1.08
Rush success allowed: 46.6%

When Wisconsin has the ball

Wisconsin offense: 4th
UCLA defense: 6th

Show the underlying numbers

Wisconsin offensive PPA per play: 0.024th percentile · #130 nationally
UCLA PPA allowed per play: 0.266th percentile · #125 nationally
Wisconsin success rate: 37%10th percentile · #122 nationally
UCLA success rate allowed: 50%1st percentile · #135 nationally
Wisconsin points per game: 12.81st percentile · #135 nationally
UCLA points allowed per game: 33.47th percentile · #127 nationally

PPA and success rate: CFBD, 2025 full season, garbage time included. Points per game: every 2025 game. Percentiles and ranks are among 2025 FBS teams.

Wisconsin offense · 2025 season · Last 8 games · garbage time excluded

Explosiveness: 1.24
Rush success: 30.9%

UCLA defense · 2025 season · Last 8 games · garbage time excluded

Explosiveness allowed: 1.17
Rush success allowed: 52.7%

Defense is oriented so a higher percentile is stronger.

Where they attack.

Follow the direction. Check the production.

Share of charted attemptsDirectional schematic

Offense moving upfield ↑

Select left, middle or right. The paths show direction only; alignment, routes and throw depth are schematic.

Nico Iamaleava · 90% of charted pass attempts

Throwing left

Share of charted plays: 37%
Usage: charted in this direction: 116 attempts
Yards / attempt: 6.3; over 116 attempts with a result
Completion rate: 68%; over 116 attempts with a result

314 of 323 have a direction · 9 unknown, excluded · rounded

Charted 12 of 12 games

Efficiency charted in 12 of 12 games

Depth as written in the play-by-play: 283 short · 31 deep · 9 not stated

Who's driving the offense?

The UCLA offense in 2025

Nico Iamaleava

QB · 11 games

208/323 · 64% season

Passing yards: 1,928
Touchdowns: 13
Interceptions: 7

Last game

USC · Nov 29, 2025: 27/38, 200 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT

Nico Iamaleava

QB · 11 games

Carries: 112
Rushing yards: 505
Touchdowns: 4

Last game

USC · Nov 29, 2025: 11 carries, 15 yds, 0 TD

Kwazi Gilmer

WR · 12 games

Receptions: 50
Receiving yards: 535
Touchdowns: 4

Last game

USC · Nov 29, 2025: 10 rec, 73 yds, 1 TD

UCLA player tables

Who is producing

UCLA player production

2025 evidence · 12 games in this window · 12 with recorded rows in this view

UCLA — Passing production
Player
Nico IamaleavaQB	11	208 / 323	1,928	6.0	13	7
Luke DuncanQB	2	21 / 34	235	6.9	2	0
Mikey MatthewsWR	1	0 / 1	0	0.0	0	0

3 players with recorded rows

Rows are recorded player-game box lines for the games listed above. A missing row is missing data, not proof that a player did not appear, and none of these figures describe targets, snaps, starters or availability.

Wisconsin player tables

Who is producing

Wisconsin player production

2025 evidence · 12 games in this window · 12 with recorded rows in this view

Wisconsin — Passing production
Player
Hunter SimmonsQB	8	62 / 118	664	5.6	2	7
Danny O'NeilQB	6	61 / 90	635	7.1	5	5
Carter SmithQB	4	26 / 46	201	4.4	2	1
Billy EdwardsQB	2	7 / 16	113	7.1	0	0
Sean WestPK	1	1 / 1	24	24.0	0	0
Tyrell HenryWR	1	0 / 1	0	0.0	0	0

6 players with recorded rows

In the trenches

UCLA's line averages 313.3 lbs against Wisconsin's 302.4 lbs front — an edge of 10.9 lbs a man.

Typical FBS gap: 31.7 lbs.

Roster size is context. It isn't a forecast advantage.

Matchup	O-line	D-line
UCLA OLUCLA OL vs Wisconsin DL	313.3 lbs	302.4 lbs
Wisconsin OLWisconsin OL vs UCLA DL	317.7 lbs	283.2 lbs

UCLA
Wisconsin

Average listed roster weight, 2026 · bars run from 0 to 350 lbs.

How these teams stack up

2025 season. Percentiles and ranks are among 2025 FBS teams.

UCLA

Points per game: 18.2#125 nationally · 7th percentile · 12 games
Points allowed per game: 33.4#127 nationally · 7th percentile · 12 games
Returning production: 22% of 2024 PPA returns · 18th percentile
Upperclassmen: 46% · 107 of 107 with a class year

Wisconsin

Points per game: 12.8#135 nationally · 1st percentile · 12 games
Points allowed per game: 21.6#39 nationally · 72nd percentile · 12 games
Returning production: 40% of 2024 PPA returns · 36th percentile
Upperclassmen: 47% · 116 of 116 with a class year

Recruiting

UCLA

2025 signing class · #46 nationally: 67th percentile · 202.3 pts
4-year recruiting composite (Saturday Bias) · classes 2022–2025 · #61 nationally: 56th percentile · 0.12 (0 is the FBS average)
Roster talent (CFBD Team Talent) · 2025 · #26 nationally: 81st percentile · 766.6

Wisconsin

2025 signing class · #27 nationally: 81st percentile · 227.2 pts
4-year recruiting composite (Saturday Bias) · classes 2022–2025 · #27 nationally: 81st percentile · 0.70 (0 is the FBS average)
Roster talent (CFBD Team Talent) · 2025 · #28 nationally: 80th percentile · 763.2

Recruited classes aren't the roster that takes the field.

Season percentile profiles

Season percentiles · outward is stronger · recruiting and experience are context, not forecast weights

UCLA: solid line, circles · Wisconsin: dashed line, squares

UCLA

Offense · 2025: 21.7 · 21st percentile; CFBD, 2025 season to date
Defense · SP+ 2025: 30.4 · 31st percentile; CFBD, 2025 season to date
Special teams · SP+ 2025: 0.1 · 47th percentile; CFBD, 2025 season to date
Recruiting · 2025 signing class: 202.3 pts · 67th percentile; CFBD, 2025 signing class
Experience · returning production 2025: 22% returning · 18th percentile; CFBD, 2025 roster

Wisconsin

Offense · SP+ 2025: 17.4 · 10th percentile; CFBD, 2025 season to date
Defense · SP+ 2025: 20.9 · 75th percentile; CFBD, 2025 season to date
Special teams · SP+ 2025: −0.9 · 30th percentile; CFBD, 2025 season to date
Recruiting · 2025 signing class: 227.2 pts · 81st percentile; CFBD, 2025 signing class
Experience · returning production 2025: 40% returning · 36th percentile; CFBD, 2025 roster

UCLA's recent games

Most recent completed 2025 games · play stats exclude garbage time

Nov 29 · 66 recorded plays
at USC
L 10–29
44%
Success rate
0.10
PPA / play
Nov 22 · 43 recorded plays
vs Washington
L 14–48
23%
Success rate
−0.19
PPA / play
Nov 15 · 30 recorded plays
at Ohio State
L 10–48
20%
Success rate
−0.08
PPA / play

The coaching staff

UCLA

Head coach: Bob Chesney
First season as UCLA's head coach · career +9.9 SP+ overall
Photo: Bobak Ha'Eri, CC BY 3.0
Offensive coordinator: Dean Kennedy
career +32.3 SP+ offense
Defensive coordinator: Colin Hitschler
career +16.6 SP+ defense

Wisconsin

Head coach: Luke Fickell
career +8.2 SP+ overall
Photo: Apyanac, CC BY-SA 4.0
Offensive coordinator: Jeff Grimes
career +29.8 SP+ offense
Defensive coordinator: Mike Tressel
career +17.4 SP+ defense

Head-to-head

Wisconsin leads 1–0 since 2000

2000 · Wisconsin 21, UCLA 20
Neutral site

Evidence and sources

Evidence window: 2025 full season

UCLA: 12 games
Wisconsin: 12 games

Forecast: 2026 game forecast · this game · Saturday Bias
Weather: 2026 game forecast · this game · NWS
The game in a minute: 2025 full season, garbage time included · compared with 2025 FBS teams · CFBD
When each team has the ball: 2025 full season, garbage time included · compared with 2025 FBS teams · CFBD
Where they attack: 2025 full season, garbage time included, regular season only · per team, not ranked · NCAA
Featured players: 2025 full season, garbage time included · per team, not ranked · CFBD
In the trenches: 2026 roster snapshot · compared with 2026 FBS teams · CFBD
Team profiles: 2025 season to date · compared with 2025 FBS teams · CFBD
Recent games: 2025 recent games, garbage time excluded · this game · CFBD
Coaching staff: 2026 coaching staff · per team, not ranked · CFBD (head coaches, SP+) and Wikipedia (coordinators)
Head-to-head: completed meetings since 2000 · games between these two programs · CFBD

Compare these teams

Game forecast

The game in a minute

UCLA's offense leads its matchup in success rate

Wisconsin's defense leads its matchup in points allowed

The forecast comes with a range

When each team has the ball

When UCLA has the ball

UCLA offense · 2025 season · Last 8 games · garbage time excluded

Wisconsin defense · 2025 season · Last 8 games · garbage time excluded

When Wisconsin has the ball

Wisconsin offense · 2025 season · Last 8 games · garbage time excluded

UCLA defense · 2025 season · Last 8 games · garbage time excluded

Where they attack.

Throwing left

Who's driving the offense?

Nico Iamaleava

Nico Iamaleava

Kwazi Gilmer

UCLA player production

Wisconsin player production

In the trenches

How these teams stack up

UCLA

Wisconsin

Recruiting

UCLA

Wisconsin

Season percentile profiles

UCLA

Wisconsin

UCLA's recent games

at USC

vs Washington

at Ohio State

The coaching staff

UCLA

Wisconsin

Head-to-head

Evidence and sources

UCLA's offense leads its matchup in

Wisconsin's defense leads its matchup in