Saturday, October 17

UCLA

5–0 · AP #12

Wisconsin

4–1

7:30 PM ET4:30 PM PTRose BowlPasadena, CA

Weather

Clear86°FS 3 mphGusts 10 mphPrecip 0%

At kickoff · 4:30 PM PT · Updated 1:02 PM PT · National Weather Service

Hour by hour

Pasadena · local time (PT)

Kickoff hour

Clear86°FS 3 mphGusts 10 mphPrecip 0%

Weather is not an input to the SBR forecast.

Game forecast

61%

UCLA win probability

Wisconsin 39%

UCLA by 3.8

Projected margin

Margin uncertainty ±14.2 points

Published forecast · SBR sbr-2r · Model track record

The game in a minute

01 · UCLA's case

UCLA's defense leads its matchup in allowed

UCLA's defense is in the 97th percentile for success rate allowed this season. Wisconsin's offense is in the 24th percentile for success rate.

See the underlying numbers

02 · Wisconsin's answer

Wisconsin's defense leads its matchup in per-play efficiency

Wisconsin's defense is in the 97th percentile for allowed per play this season. UCLA's offense is in the 64th percentile for PPA per play.

See when each team has the ball

03 · What could swing it

The forecast comes with a range

The model gives UCLA a 61% chance to win and predicts UCLA by 3.8 points. That margin has an uncertainty of ±14.2 points.

See the forecast

When each team has the ball

Offensive efficiency meets defensive efficiency. Percentiles run from 0 to 100.

When UCLA has the ball

UCLA offense: 64th
Wisconsin defense: 97th

Show the underlying numbers

UCLA offensive PPA per play: 0.2064th percentile · #45 nationally
Wisconsin PPA allowed per play: −0.1297th percentile · #5 nationally
UCLA success rate: 46%68th percentile · #45 nationally
Wisconsin success rate allowed: 35%84th percentile · #23 nationally
UCLA points per game: 39.288th percentile · #18 nationally
Wisconsin per game: 16.683rd percentile · #24 nationally

PPA and success rate: CFBD, 2026 season to date, garbage time included. Points per game: 2026 games so far. Percentiles and ranks are among 2026 teams.

UCLA offense · Last 5 games · garbage time excluded

Explosiveness: 1.23
Rush success: 52.3%

Wisconsin defense · 4 of the last 5 games · garbage time excluded

Explosiveness allowed: 1.03
Rush success allowed: 36.2%

When Wisconsin has the ball

Wisconsin offense: 53rd
UCLA defense: 100th

Show the underlying numbers

Wisconsin offensive PPA per play: 0.1753rd percentile · #61 nationally
UCLA PPA allowed per play: −0.20100th percentile · #1 nationally
Wisconsin success rate: 40%24th percentile · #105 nationally
UCLA success rate allowed: 32%97th percentile · #5 nationally
Wisconsin points per game: 31.658th percentile · #58 nationally
UCLA points allowed per game: 18.079th percentile · #30 nationally

PPA and success rate: CFBD, 2026 season to date, garbage time included. Points per game: 2026 games so far. Percentiles and ranks are among 2026 FBS teams.

Wisconsin offense · Last 5 games · garbage time excluded

Explosiveness: 1.53
Rush success: 34.3%

UCLA defense · Last 5 games · garbage time excluded

Explosiveness allowed: 1.24
Rush success allowed: 34.7%

Defense is oriented so a higher percentile is stronger.

Where they attack.

Follow the direction. Check the production.

Share of charted attemptsDirectional schematic

Offense moving upfield ↑

Select left, middle or right. The paths show direction only; alignment, routes and throw depth are schematic.

Nico Iamaleava · 94% of charted pass attempts

Throwing right

Share of charted plays: 41%
Usage: charted in this direction: 46 attempts
Yards / attempt: 10.0; over 46 attempts with a result
Completion rate: 72%; over 46 attempts with a result

112 of 115 have a direction · 3 unknown, excluded · rounded

Charted 5 of 5 games

Efficiency charted in 5 of 5 games

Depth as written in the play-by-play: 93 short · 19 deep · 3 not stated

Who's driving the offense?

The UCLA offense in 2026

Nico Iamaleava

QB · 5 games

Photo: ESPN

72/116 · 62% season

Passing yards: 982
Touchdowns: 4
Interceptions: 4

Last game

Oregon · Oct 10, 2026: 10/17, 162 yds, 0 TD, 2 INT

Wayne Knight

RB · 5 games

Photo: ESPN

Carries: 71
Rushing yards: 548
Touchdowns: 10

Last game

Oregon · Oct 10, 2026: 22 carries, 103 yds, 1 TD

Semaj Morgan

WR · 5 games

Photo: ESPN

Receptions: 19
Receiving yards: 229
Touchdowns: 2

Last game

Oregon · Oct 10, 2026: 5 rec, 55 yds, 0 TD

UCLA player tables

Who is producing

UCLA player production

2026 evidence · 5 games in this window · 5 with recorded rows in this view

UCLA — Passing production
Player
Nico IamaleavaQB	5	72 / 116	982	8.5	4	4
Ty DieffenbachQB	1	3 / 6	43	7.2	1	0
Madden IamaleavaQB	1	0 / 1	0	0.0	0	0

3 players with recorded rows

Rows are recorded player-game box lines for the games listed above. A missing row is missing data, not proof that a player did not appear, and none of these figures describe targets, snaps, starters or availability.

Wisconsin player tables

Who is producing

Wisconsin player production

2026 evidence · 5 games in this window · 5 with recorded rows in this view

Wisconsin — Passing production
Player
Colton JosephQB	5	81 / 143	1,132	7.9	10	5

1 players with recorded rows

In the trenches

UCLA's line averages 313.3 lbs against Wisconsin's 302.4 lbs front — an edge of 10.9 lbs a man.

Typical FBS gap: 31.7 lbs.

Roster size is context. It isn't a forecast advantage.

Matchup	O-line	D-line
UCLA OLUCLA OL vs Wisconsin DL	313.3 lbs	302.4 lbs
Wisconsin OLWisconsin OL vs UCLA DL	317.7 lbs	283.2 lbs

UCLA
Wisconsin

Average listed roster weight, 2026 · bars run from 0 to 350 lbs.

How these teams stack up

2026 season. Percentiles and ranks are among 2026 FBS teams.

UCLA

Points per game: 39.2#18 nationally · 88th percentile · 5 games
Points allowed per game: 18.0#30 nationally · 79th percentile · 5 games
Returning production: 57% of 2025 PPA returns · 65th percentile
Upperclassmen: 51% · 120 of 120 with a class year

Wisconsin

Points per game: 31.6#58 nationally · 58th percentile · 5 games
Points allowed per game: 16.6#24 nationally · 83rd percentile · 5 games
Returning production: 31% of 2025 PPA returns · 36th percentile
Upperclassmen: 39% · 119 of 119 with a class year

Recruiting

UCLA

2026 signing class · #62 nationally: 55th percentile · 196.6 pts
4-year recruiting composite (Saturday Bias) · classes 2023–2026 · #64 nationally: 54th percentile · 0.04 (0 is the FBS average)
Roster talent (CFBD Team Talent) · 2026 · #25 nationally: 82nd percentile · 774.5

Wisconsin

2026 signing class · #78 nationally: 44th percentile · 186.8 pts
4-year recruiting composite (Saturday Bias) · classes 2023–2026 · #47 nationally: 66th percentile · 0.33 (0 is the FBS average)
Roster talent (CFBD Team Talent) · 2026 · #30 nationally: 79th percentile · 767.7

Recruited classes aren't the roster that takes the field.

Season percentile profiles

Season percentiles · outward is stronger · recruiting and experience are context, not forecast weights

UCLA: solid line, circles · Wisconsin: dashed line, squares

UCLA

Offense · 2026: 34.3 · 83rd percentile; CFBD, 2026 season to date
Defense · SP+ 2026: 19.2 · 82nd percentile; CFBD, 2026 season to date
Special teams · SP+ 2026: 0.1 · 50th percentile; CFBD, 2026 season to date
Recruiting · 2026 signing class: 196.6 pts · 55th percentile; CFBD, 2026 signing class
Experience · returning production 2026: 57% returning · 65th percentile; CFBD, 2026 roster

Wisconsin

Offense · SP+ 2026: 26.3 · 45th percentile; CFBD, 2026 season to date
Defense · SP+ 2026: 15.8 · 91st percentile; CFBD, 2026 season to date
Special teams · SP+ 2026: 0.1 · 50th percentile; CFBD, 2026 season to date
Recruiting · 2026 signing class: 186.8 pts · 44th percentile; CFBD, 2026 signing class
Experience · returning production 2026: 31% returning · 36th percentile; CFBD, 2026 roster

UCLA's recent games

Most recent completed 2026 games · play stats exclude garbage time

Oct 10 · 71 recorded plays
at Oregon
W 17–15
35%
Success rate
−0.12
PPA / play
Sep 26 · 40 recorded plays
at Maryland
W 54–3
40%
Success rate
−0.05
PPA / play
Sep 19 · 81 recorded plays
vs Purdue
W 52–38
57%
Success rate
0.52
PPA / play

The coaching staff

UCLA

Head coach: Bob Chesney
First season as UCLA's head coach · career +9.9 SP+ overall
Photo: Bobak Ha'Eri, CC BY 3.0
Offensive coordinator: Dean Kennedy
career +32.3 SP+ offense
Defensive coordinator: Colin Hitschler
career +16.6 SP+ defense

Wisconsin

Head coach: Luke Fickell
career +8.2 SP+ overall
Photo: Apyanac, CC BY-SA 4.0
Offensive coordinator: Jeff Grimes
career +29.8 SP+ offense
Defensive coordinator: Mike Tressel
career +17.4 SP+ defense

Head-to-head

Wisconsin leads 1–0 since 2000

2000 · Wisconsin 21, UCLA 20
Neutral site

Evidence and sources

Evidence window: 2026 season to date

UCLA: 5 games
Wisconsin: 5 games

Forecast: 2026 game forecast · this game · Saturday Bias
Weather: 2026 game forecast · this game · NWS
The game in a minute: 2026 season to date, garbage time included · compared with 2026 FBS teams · CFBD
When each team has the ball: 2026 season to date, garbage time included · compared with 2026 FBS teams · CFBD
Where they attack: 2026 season to date, garbage time included, regular season only · per team, not ranked · NCAA
Featured players: 2026 season to date, garbage time included · per team, not ranked · CFBD
In the trenches: 2026 roster snapshot · compared with 2026 FBS teams · CFBD
Team profiles: 2026 season to date · compared with 2026 FBS teams · CFBD
Recent games: 2026 recent games, garbage time excluded · this game · CFBD
Coaching staff: 2026 coaching staff · per team, not ranked · CFBD (head coaches, SP+) and Wikipedia (coordinators)
Head-to-head: completed meetings since 2000 · games between these two programs · CFBD

Compare these teams

Game forecast

The game in a minute

UCLA's defense leads its matchup in success rate allowed

Wisconsin's defense leads its matchup in per-play efficiency

The forecast comes with a range

When each team has the ball

When UCLA has the ball

UCLA offense · Last 5 games · garbage time excluded

Wisconsin defense · 4 of the last 5 games · garbage time excluded

When Wisconsin has the ball

Wisconsin offense · Last 5 games · garbage time excluded

UCLA defense · Last 5 games · garbage time excluded

Where they attack.

Throwing right

Who's driving the offense?

Nico Iamaleava

Wayne Knight

Semaj Morgan

UCLA player production

Wisconsin player production

In the trenches

How these teams stack up

UCLA

Wisconsin

Recruiting

UCLA

Wisconsin

Season percentile profiles

UCLA

Wisconsin

UCLA's recent games

at Oregon

at Maryland

vs Purdue

The coaching staff

UCLA

Wisconsin

Head-to-head

Evidence and sources

UCLA's defense leads its matchup in allowed