2026 UCLA vs 2026 Wisconsin

Hypothetical

UCLA by 1.3

54% to win

High confidence — 5 games in — see our accuracy

Hypothetical forecast · SBR sbr-2r

Why this number

UCLAIn-season results +12.9Preseason baseline +2.7

WisconsinIn-season results +8.5Preseason baseline +5.8

Neutral site

How they're built

0–100 percentile · higher is stronger

Compare the whole profile, then explore each dimension.

Offensive production relative to that season’s field. Compare an offense with the opposing defense in the scouting report.

Recruiting and experience add context; the five axes aren't equal weights in the forecast.

The numbers behind the profiles

Measure	2026 UCLA	2026 Wisconsin
Offensive / play	0.2064th percentile	0.1753rd percentile
PPA allowed / play	−0.20100th percentile	−0.1297th percentile
Points per game	39.288th percentile5 games	31.658th percentile5 games
per game	18.079th percentile5 games	16.683rd percentile5 games

Programs don't stand still

SP+ percentile among FBS teams, by season. The marked point is each compared season.

2026 UCLA2026 Wisconsin

Momentum

UCLA↗ rising (+43 pctl over 3 seasons)

Wisconsin↗ rising (+19 pctl over 3 seasons)

Talent in, results out

Recruiting-class percentile feeding each roster, compared with its SP+ result.

2026 UCLA

Average signing-class percentile, classes 2023–2026: 57th percentile
SP+ percentile, 2026: 88th percentile

Outperforming its talent (+31)

2026 Wisconsin

Average signing-class percentile, classes 2023–2026: 66th percentile
SP+ percentile, 2026: 74th percentile

Matching its talent (+8)

Campus distance

1660 miles apart

There's more to the matchup.

Supporting context, ready when you want it.

In the trenches · both directions

Matchup	O-line	D-line
2026 UCLA OL vs 2026 Wisconsin DL	313.3 lbs	302.4 lbs
2026 Wisconsin OL vs 2026 UCLA DL	317.7 lbs	283.2 lbs

2026 UCLA line yards 3.62 · 2026 Wisconsin stuff rate 10.9%

2026 Wisconsin line yards 3.04 · 2026 UCLA stuff rate 26.8%

Fans swear big lines win games. They're half right — big-line teams do win more, but only because good programs recruit big linemen. Once we account for talent and last season, line size adds nothing to the prediction. Across 11 seasons, no measurable effect on margin.

Roster size is context. It isn't a forecast advantage.

Backtested effect: 0.42 pts at 1σ.

Head-to-head · Wisconsin leads 1–0 since 2000

Wisconsin has won 1 straight

Season	Score	Venue
2000bowl/playoff	UCLA 20–21 Wisconsin	Neutral site

Coaching & program context

2026 UCLA

Bob Chesney (First season as UCLA's head coach)

Dean Kennedy

career average +32.3 SP+ offense

Scheme: Spread (listed on Wikipedia)

Style: Run-heavy, average pace (threw on 37% of its run–pass plays, 12th percentile of 2026 FBS; 67.2 plays a game, 47th percentile)

Colin Hitschler

career average +16.6 SP+ defense

Scheme: 4–2–5 (listed on Wikipedia)

2026 Wisconsin

Luke Fickell

Jeff Grimes

career average +29.8 SP+ offense

Scheme: Multiple (listed on Wikipedia)

Style: Balanced, grind-it-out (threw on 47% of its run–pass plays, 54th percentile of 2026 FBS; 62.0 plays a game, 14th percentile)

Mike Tressel

career average +17.4 SP+ defense

Scheme: 4–2–5 (listed on Wikipedia)

A new coordinator feels like it should swing a game. Across 11 seasons, the change doesn't move the final margin beyond what the roster already tells us. Shown as context, not a factor in our number.

Run-heavy team meets a defense that can't stop the run — feels like extra points waiting. Across 7 seasons the matchup adds nothing beyond what the two ratings already say; if anything the point estimate leans the other way.