Saturday, October 17
Compare these teams
4–1 · AP #25
at
Michigan State
2–4
12:00 PM ETSpartan StadiumEast Lansing, MI
Clear49°FNW 10 mphGusts 20 mphPrecip 1%
At kickoff · 12:00 PM ET · Updated 3:03 PM ET · National Weather Service
East Lansing · local time (ET)
Kickoff hour
Clear49°FNW 10 mphGusts 20 mphPrecip 1%
Weather is not an input to the SBR forecast.
73%
Northwestern win probability
Michigan State 27%
Northwestern by 8.6
Projected margin
Margin uncertainty ±14.3 points
Published forecast · SBR sbr-2r · Model track record
01 · Northwestern's case
Northwestern's offense is in the 95th percentile for per play this season. Michigan State's defense is in the 15th percentile for PPA allowed.
See when each team has the ball02 · Michigan State's answer
Michigan State's offense is in the 50th percentile for success rate this season. Northwestern's defense is in the 25th percentile for success rate allowed.
See the underlying numbers03 · What could swing it
The model gives Northwestern a 73% chance to win and predicts Northwestern by 8.6 points. That margin has an uncertainty of ±14.3 points.
See the forecastOffensive efficiency meets defensive efficiency. Percentiles run from 0 to 100.
PPA and success rate: CFBD, 2026 season to date, garbage time included. Points per game: 2026 games so far. Percentiles and ranks are among 2026 teams.
PPA and success rate: CFBD, 2026 season to date, garbage time included. Points per game: 2026 games so far. Percentiles and ranks are among 2026 FBS teams.
Defense is oriented so a higher percentile is stronger.
Follow the direction. Check the production.
Offense moving upfield ↑
Aidan Chiles · 99% of charted pass attempts
113 of 113 have a direction · 0 unknown, excluded · rounded
Charted 5 of 5 games
Efficiency charted in 5 of 5 games
Depth as written in the play-by-play: 99 short · 14 deep · 0 not stated
The Northwestern offense in 2026
QB · 5 games
Photo: ESPN
80/112 · 71% season
Last game
Ball State · Oct 10, 2026: 17/23, 272 yds, 3 TD, 0 INT
RB · 5 games
Photo: ESPN
Last game
Ball State · Oct 10, 2026: 8 carries, 44 yds, 1 TD
WR · 5 games
Last game
Ball State · Oct 10, 2026: 8 rec, 144 yds, 1 TD
Who is producing
2026 evidence · 5 games in this window · 5 with recorded rows in this view
Sorted by Completions and attempts, highest first
| Player | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aidan ChilesQB | 5 | 80 / 112 | 1,172 | 10.5 | 9 | 0 |
| Nicco MarchiolQB | 1 | 0 / 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
2 players with recorded rows
Rows are recorded player-game box lines for the games listed above. A missing row is missing data, not proof that a player did not appear, and none of these figures describe targets, snaps, starters or availability.
Who is producing
2026 evidence · 6 games in this window · 6 with recorded rows in this view
Sorted by Completions and attempts, highest first
| Player | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alessio MilivojevicQB | 6 | 102 / 155 | 1,047 | 6.8 | 5 | 3 |
| Cam FancherQB | 4 | 8 / 11 | 59 | 5.4 | 0 | 1 |
| Carson GulkerTE | 1 | 1 / 1 | 19 | 19.0 | 0 | 0 |
3 players with recorded rows
Rows are recorded player-game box lines for the games listed above. A missing row is missing data, not proof that a player did not appear, and none of these figures describe targets, snaps, starters or availability.
Northwestern's line averages 305.4 lbs against Michigan State's 269.0 lbs front — an edge of 36.4 lbs a man.
Typical FBS gap: 31.7 lbs.
Roster size is context. It isn't a forecast advantage.
| Matchup | O-line | D-line |
|---|---|---|
| Northwestern OLNorthwestern OL vs Michigan State DL | 305.4 lbs | 269.0 lbs |
| Michigan State OLMichigan State OL vs Northwestern DL | 305.1 lbs | 273.9 lbs |
Average listed roster weight, 2026 · bars run from 0 to 350 lbs.
2026 season. Percentiles and ranks are among 2026 FBS teams.
Recruited classes aren't the roster that takes the field.
Season percentiles · outward is stronger · recruiting and experience are context, not forecast weights
Northwestern: solid line, circles · Michigan State: dashed line, squares
Most recent completed 2026 games · play stats exclude garbage time
Oct 10 · 48 recorded plays
W 45–14
54%
Success rate
0.60
PPA / play
Oct 2 · 66 recorded plays
W 34–13
58%
Success rate
0.26
PPA / play
Sep 25 · 58 recorded plays
L 23–29
40%
Success rate
0.25
PPA / play
Tim McGarigle
career +22.1 SP+ defense
Pat Fitzgerald
First season as Michigan State's head coach · career +0.2 SP+ overall
Photo: Bobak Ha'Eri, CC BY 3.0
Joe Rossi
career +23.2 SP+ defense
2021 · Michigan State 38, Northwestern 21
Ryan Field
2020 · Michigan State 29, Northwestern 20
Spartan Stadium
2019 · Michigan State 31, Northwestern 10
Ryan Field
2018 · Northwestern 29, Michigan State 19
Spartan Stadium
2017 · Northwestern 39, Michigan State 31
Ryan Field
2016 · Northwestern 54, Michigan State 40
Spartan Stadium
2013 · Michigan State 30, Northwestern 6
Ryan Field
2012 · Northwestern 23, Michigan State 20
Spartan Stadium
2011 · Michigan State 31, Northwestern 17
Ryan Field
2010 · Michigan State 35, Northwestern 27
Ryan Field
2009 · Michigan State 24, Northwestern 14
Spartan Stadium
2008 · Michigan State 37, Northwestern 20
Ryan Field
2007 · Northwestern 48, Michigan State 41
Spartan Stadium
2006 · Michigan State 41, Northwestern 38
Ryan Field
2005 · Northwestern 49, Michigan State 14
Spartan Stadium
2002 · Michigan State 39, Northwestern 24
Spartan Stadium
2001 · Northwestern 27, Michigan State 26
Ryan Field
2000 · Northwestern 37, Michigan State 17
Evidence window: 2026 season to date