2026 Northwestern vs 2026 Michigan State
Hypothetical
78% to win
High confidence — 4 games in — see our accuracy
Hypothetical forecast · SBR sbr-2r
Why this number
How they're built
0–100 percentile · higher is stronger
Compare the whole profile, then explore each dimension.
- 2026 Northwestern Offense · SP+ 2026: 35.1, 87th percentile (2026 season to date)
- 2026 Michigan State Offense · SP+ 2026: 25.0, 36th percentile (2026 season to date)
- 2026 Northwestern Defense · SP+ 2026: 19.7, 81st percentile (2026 season to date)
- 2026 Michigan State Defense · SP+ 2026: 26.2, 47th percentile (2026 season to date)
- 2026 Northwestern Special teams · SP+ 2026: 0.2, 69th percentile (2026 season to date)
- 2026 Michigan State Special teams · SP+ 2026: 0.1, 50th percentile (2026 season to date)
- 2026 Northwestern Recruiting · 2026 signing class: 204.9 pts, 63rd percentile (2026 signing class)
- 2026 Michigan State Recruiting · 2026 signing class: 213.7 pts, 68th percentile (2026 signing class)
- 2026 Northwestern Experience · returning production 2026: 89% returning, 95th percentile (2026 roster)
- 2026 Michigan State Experience · returning production 2026: 21% returning, 27th percentile (2026 roster)
Offensive production relative to that season’s field. Compare an offense with the opposing defense in the scouting report.
Recruiting and experience add context; the five axes aren't equal weights in the forecast.
The numbers behind the profiles
| Measure | 2026 Northwestern | 2026 Michigan State |
|---|---|---|
| Offensive / play | 0.3395th percentile | 0.0215th percentile |
| PPA allowed / play | 0.0648th percentile | 0.1815th percentile |
| Points per game | 35.474th percentile5 games | 21.318th percentile6 games |
| per game | 16.284th percentile5 games | 25.735th percentile6 games |
Programs don't stand still
SP+ percentile among FBS teams, by season. The marked point is each compared season.
Momentum
Talent in, results out
Recruiting-class percentile feeding each roster, compared with its SP+ result.
- Average signing-class percentile, classes 2023–2026
- 55th percentile
- SP+ percentile, 2026
- 88th percentile
- Average signing-class percentile, classes 2023–2026
- 70th percentile
- SP+ percentile, 2026
- 45th percentile
Campus distance
170 miles apart
There's more to the matchup.
Supporting context, ready when you want it.
In the trenches · both directions
| Matchup | O-line | D-line |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 Northwestern OL vs 2026 Michigan State DL | 305.4 lbs | 269.0 lbs |
| 2026 Michigan State OL vs 2026 Northwestern DL | 305.1 lbs | 273.9 lbs |
2026 Northwestern line yards 3.05 · 2026 Michigan State stuff rate 20.2%
2026 Michigan State line yards 2.98 · 2026 Northwestern stuff rate 18.6%
Fans swear big lines win games. They're half right — big-line teams do win more, but only because good programs recruit big linemen. Once we account for talent and last season, line size adds nothing to the prediction. Across 11 seasons, no measurable effect on margin.
Roster size is context. It isn't a forecast advantage.
Backtested effect: 0.42 pts at 1σ.
Head-to-head · Michigan State leads 10–8 since 2000
Michigan State has won 3 straight
| Season | Score | Venue |
|---|---|---|
| 2021 | Northwestern 21–38 Michigan State | Ryan Field · Northwestern home |
| 2020 | Northwestern 20–29 Michigan State | Spartan Stadium · Michigan State home |
| 2019 | Northwestern 10–31 Michigan State | Ryan Field · Northwestern home |
| 2018 | Northwestern 29–19 Michigan State | Spartan Stadium · Michigan State home |
| 2017 | Northwestern 39–31 Michigan State | Ryan Field · Northwestern home |
| 2016 | Northwestern 54–40 Michigan State | Spartan Stadium · Michigan State home |
| 2013 | Northwestern 6–30 Michigan State | Ryan Field · Northwestern home |
| 2012 | Northwestern 23–20 Michigan State | Spartan Stadium · Michigan State home |
| 2011 | Northwestern 17–31 Michigan State | Ryan Field · Northwestern home |
| 2010 | Northwestern 27–35 Michigan State | Ryan Field · Northwestern home |
| 2009 | Northwestern 14–24 Michigan State | Spartan Stadium · Michigan State home |
| 2008 | Northwestern 20–37 Michigan State | Ryan Field · Northwestern home |
| 2007 | Northwestern 48–41 Michigan State | Spartan Stadium · Michigan State home |
| 2006 | Northwestern 38–41 Michigan State | Ryan Field · Northwestern home |
| 2005 | Northwestern 49–14 Michigan State | Spartan Stadium · Michigan State home |
| 2002 | Northwestern 24–39 Michigan State | Spartan Stadium · Michigan State home |
| 2001 | Northwestern 27–26 Michigan State | Ryan Field · Northwestern home |
| 2000 | Northwestern 37–17 Michigan State | Michigan State home |
Coaching & program context
HC
- David Braun
OC
- Chip Kelly
career average +39.7 SP+ offense
Scheme: Multiple spread (listed on Wikipedia)
Style: Run-heavy, grind-it-out (threw on 37% of its run–pass plays, 9th percentile of 2026 FBS; 62.8 plays a game, 18th percentile)
DC
- Tim McGarigle
career average +22.1 SP+ defense
Scheme: Multiple 4–3 (listed on Wikipedia)
HC
- Pat Fitzgerald (First season as Michigan State's head coach)
OC
- Nick Sheridan
career average +31.0 SP+ offense
Scheme: Pro spread (listed on Wikipedia)
Style: Run-heavy, average pace (threw on 43% of its run–pass plays, 29th percentile of 2026 FBS; 66.3 plays a game, 44th percentile)
DC
- Joe Rossi
- Max Bullough (co-DC)
career average +23.2 SP+ defense
Scheme: Multiple 4–2–5 (listed on Wikipedia)
A new coordinator feels like it should swing a game. Across 11 seasons, the change doesn't move the final margin beyond what the roster already tells us. Shown as context, not a factor in our number.
Run-heavy team meets a defense that can't stop the run — feels like extra points waiting. Across 7 seasons the matchup adds nothing beyond what the two ratings already say; if anything the point estimate leans the other way.
Watching the next one?
Northwestern at Michigan State · October 17, 2026
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