Saturday, October 17

Michigan

3–2

Penn State

3–3

3:30 PM ETMichigan StadiumAnn Arbor, MI

Weather

Clear54°FNW 10 mphGusts 20 mphPrecip 1%

At kickoff · 3:30 PM ET · Updated 3:49 PM ET · National Weather Service

Hour by hour

Ann Arbor · local time (ET)

Kickoff hour

Clear54°FNW 10 mphGusts 20 mphPrecip 1%

Weather is not an input to the SBR forecast.

Evidence sections show 2025 background.

Game forecast

54%

Michigan win probability

Penn State 46%

Michigan by 1.6

Projected margin

Margin uncertainty ±14.5 points

Published forecast · SBR sbr-2r · Model track record

The game in a minute

01 · Michigan's case

Michigan's offense leads its matchup in

Michigan's offense was in the 76th percentile for success rate last season. Penn State's defense was in the 57th percentile for success rate allowed.

See the underlying numbers

02 · Penn State's answer

Penn State's offense leads its matchup in success rate

Penn State's offense was in the 82nd percentile for success rate last season. Michigan's defense was in the 49th percentile for success rate allowed.

See the underlying numbers

03 · What could swing it

The forecast comes with a range

The model gives Michigan a 54% chance to win and predicts Michigan by 1.6 points. That margin has an uncertainty of ±14.5 points.

See the forecast

When each team has the ball

Offensive efficiency meets defensive efficiency. Percentiles run from 0 to 100.

When Michigan has the ball

Michigan offense: 65th
Penn State defense: 67th

Show the underlying numbers

Michigan offensive per play: 0.2065th percentile · #41 nationally
Penn State PPA allowed per play: 0.1067th percentile · #39 nationally
Michigan success rate: 45%76th percentile · #33 nationally
Penn State success rate allowed: 41%57th percentile · #59 nationally
Michigan points per game: 27.550th percentile · #69 nationally
Penn State per game: 20.576th percentile · #31 nationally

PPA and success rate: CFBD, 2025 full season, garbage time included. Points per game: every 2025 game. Percentiles and ranks are among 2025 teams.

Michigan offense · 2025 season · 7 of the last 8 games · garbage time excluded

Explosiveness: 1.05
Rush success: 50.7%

Penn State defense · 2025 season · 7 of the last 8 games · garbage time excluded

Explosiveness allowed: 1.22
Rush success allowed: 46.3%

When Penn State has the ball

Penn State offense: 78th
Michigan defense: 61st

Show the underlying numbers

Penn State offensive PPA per play: 0.2378th percentile · #29 nationally
Michigan PPA allowed per play: 0.1161st percentile · #46 nationally
Penn State success rate: 46%82nd percentile · #25 nationally
Michigan success rate allowed: 42%49th percentile · #70 nationally
Penn State points per game: 31.076th percentile · #34 nationally
Michigan points allowed per game: 20.479th percentile · #29 nationally

PPA and success rate: CFBD, 2025 full season, garbage time included. Points per game: every 2025 game. Percentiles and ranks are among 2025 FBS teams.

Penn State offense · 2025 season · 7 of the last 8 games · garbage time excluded

Explosiveness: 1.23
Rush success: 46.8%

Michigan defense · 2025 season · 7 of the last 8 games · garbage time excluded

Explosiveness allowed: 1.12
Rush success allowed: 42.0%

Defense is oriented so a higher percentile is stronger.

Where they attack.

Follow the direction. Check the production.

Share of charted attemptsDirectional schematic

Offense moving upfield ↑

Select left, middle or right. The paths show direction only; alignment, routes and throw depth are schematic.

Bryce Underwood · 99% of charted pass attempts

Throwing right

Share of charted plays: 48%
Usage: charted in this direction: 137 attempts
Yards / attempt: 7.6; over 137 attempts with a result
Completion rate: 64%; over 137 attempts with a result

287 of 293 have a direction · 6 unknown, excluded · rounded

Charted 12 of 12 games

Efficiency charted in 12 of 12 games

Depth as written in the play-by-play: 247 short · 40 deep · 6 not stated

What to watch

Most charted attempts go right (48%). Middle gives the most yards per attempt: 8.2 over 62 attempts with a result.

Who's driving the offense?

The Michigan offense in 2025

Bryce Underwood

QB · 13 games

202/335 · 60% season

Passing yards: 2,428
Touchdowns: 11
Interceptions: 9

Last game

Texas · Dec 31, 2025: 23/42, 199 yds, 2 TD, 3 INT

Jordan Marshall

RB · 11 games

Carries: 150
Rushing yards: 932
Touchdowns: 10

Last game

Ohio State · Nov 29, 2025: 7 carries, 61 yds, 0 TD

Andrew Marsh

WR · 9 games

Receptions: 45
Receiving yards: 651
Touchdowns: 4

Last game

Texas · Dec 31, 2025: 3 rec, 10 yds, 1 TD

Michigan player tables

Who is producing

Michigan player production

2025 evidence · 13 games in this window · 13 with recorded rows in this view

Michigan — Passing production
Player
Bryce UnderwoodQB	13	202 / 335	2,428	7.2	11	9
Jadyn DavisQB	1	0 / 2	0	0.0	0	1
Semaj MorganWR	2	0 / 2	0	0.0	0	0
Donaven McCulleyWR	1	0 / 1	0	0.0	0	0

4 players with recorded rows

Rows are recorded player-game box lines for the games listed above. A missing row is missing data, not proof that a player did not appear, and none of these figures describe targets, snaps, starters or availability.

Penn State player tables

Who is producing

Penn State player production

2025 evidence · 13 games in this window · 13 with recorded rows in this view

Penn State — Passing production
Player
Ethan GrunkemeyerQB	9	123 / 178	1,339	7.5	8	4
Drew AllarQB	6	103 / 159	1,100	6.9	8	3
Liam CliffordWR	2	0 / 2	0	0.0	0	0

3 players with recorded rows

In the trenches

Michigan's line averages 307.7 lbs against Penn State's 272.9 lbs front — an edge of 34.8 lbs a man.

Typical FBS gap: 31.7 lbs.

Roster size is context. It isn't a forecast advantage.

Matchup	O-line	D-line
Michigan OLMichigan OL vs Penn State DL	307.7 lbs	272.9 lbs
Penn State OLPenn State OL vs Michigan DL	310.7 lbs	277.2 lbs

Michigan
Penn State

Average listed roster weight, 2026 · bars run from 0 to 350 lbs.

How these teams stack up

2025 season. Percentiles and ranks are among 2025 FBS teams.

Michigan

Points per game: 27.5#69 nationally · 50th percentile · 13 games
Points allowed per game: 20.4#29 nationally · 79th percentile · 13 games
Returning production: 40% of 2024 PPA returns · 35th percentile
Upperclassmen: 57% · 119 of 119 with a class year

Penn State

Points per game: 31.0#34 nationally · 76th percentile · 13 games
Points allowed per game: 20.5#31 nationally · 76th percentile · 13 games
Returning production: 56% of 2024 PPA returns · 57th percentile
Upperclassmen: 36% · 127 of 127 with a class year

Recruiting

Michigan

2025 signing class · #6 nationally: 96th percentile · 290.9 pts
4-year recruiting composite (Saturday Bias) · classes 2022–2025 · #11 nationally: 93rd percentile · 1.54 (0 is the FBS average)
Roster talent (CFBD Team Talent) · 2025 · #11 nationally: 92nd percentile · 907.2

Penn State

2025 signing class · #15 nationally: 90th percentile · 255.4 pts
4-year recruiting composite (Saturday Bias) · classes 2022–2025 · #15 nationally: 90th percentile · 1.43 (0 is the FBS average)
Roster talent (CFBD Team Talent) · 2025 · #10 nationally: 93rd percentile · 910.4

Recruited classes aren't the roster that takes the field.

Season percentile profiles

Season percentiles · outward is stronger · recruiting and experience are context, not forecast weights

Michigan: solid line, circles · Penn State: dashed line, squares

Michigan

Offense · 2025: 30.9 · 64th percentile; CFBD, 2025 season to date
Defense · SP+ 2025: 17.0 · 90th percentile; CFBD, 2025 season to date
Special teams · SP+ 2025: −1.4 · 15th percentile; CFBD, 2025 season to date
Recruiting · 2025 signing class: 290.9 pts · 96th percentile; CFBD, 2025 signing class
Experience · returning production 2025: 40% returning · 35th percentile; CFBD, 2025 roster

Penn State

Offense · SP+ 2025: 35.1 · 88th percentile; CFBD, 2025 season to date
Defense · SP+ 2025: 18.8 · 84th percentile; CFBD, 2025 season to date
Special teams · SP+ 2025: 1.8 · 96th percentile; CFBD, 2025 season to date
Recruiting · 2025 signing class: 255.4 pts · 90th percentile; CFBD, 2025 signing class
Experience · returning production 2025: 56% returning · 57th percentile; CFBD, 2025 roster

Michigan's recent games

Most recent completed 2025 games · play stats exclude garbage time

Dec 31
vs Texas · neutral site
L 27–41
Play stats pending
Nov 29 · 41 recorded plays
vs Ohio State
L 9–27
24%
Success rate
−0.18
PPA / play
Nov 22 · 62 recorded plays
at Maryland
W 45–20
60%
Success rate
0.36
PPA / play

The coaching staff

Michigan

Head coach: Kyle Whittingham
First season as Michigan's head coach · career +12.5 SP+ overall
Photo: Bobak Ha'Eri, CC BY 3.0
Offensive coordinator: Jason Beck
career +29.8 SP+ offense
Photo: Ken Lund from Reno, Nevada, USA, CC BY-SA 2.0
Defensive coordinator: Jay Hill
career +22.6 SP+ defense

Penn State

Head coach: Matt Campbell
First season as Penn State's head coach · career +7.1 SP+ overall
Photo: Bobak Ha'Eri, CC BY 3.0
Offensive coordinator: Taylor Mouser
career +29.5 SP+ offense
Defensive coordinator: D'Anton Lynn
career +21.1 SP+ defense
Photo: Bobak Ha'Eri, CC BY 3.0

Head-to-head

Michigan leads 13–7 since 2000

2023 · Michigan 24, Penn State 15
Beaver Stadium
2022 · Michigan 41, Penn State 17
Michigan Stadium
2021 · Michigan 21, Penn State 17
Beaver Stadium
2020 · Penn State 27, Michigan 17
Michigan Stadium
2019 · Penn State 28, Michigan 21
Beaver Stadium
2018 · Michigan 42, Penn State 7
Michigan Stadium
2017 · Penn State 42, Michigan 13
Beaver Stadium
2016 · Michigan 49, Penn State 10
Michigan Stadium
2015 · Michigan 28, Penn State 16
Beaver Stadium
2014 · Michigan 18, Penn State 13
Michigan Stadium
2013 · Penn State 43, Michigan 40
Beaver Stadium
2010 · Penn State 41, Michigan 31
Beaver Stadium
2009 · Penn State 35, Michigan 10
Michigan Stadium
2008 · Penn State 46, Michigan 17
Beaver Stadium
2007 · Michigan 14, Penn State 9
Michigan Stadium
2006 · Michigan 17, Penn State 10
Beaver Stadium
2005 · Michigan 27, Penn State 25
Michigan Stadium
2002 · Michigan 27, Penn State 24
Michigan Stadium
2001 · Michigan 20, Penn State 0
Beaver Stadium
2000 · Michigan 33, Penn State 11

Evidence and sources

Evidence window: 2025 full season

Michigan: 13 games
Penn State: 13 games

Forecast: 2026 game forecast · this game · Saturday Bias
Weather: 2026 game forecast · this game · NWS
The game in a minute: 2025 full season, garbage time included · compared with 2025 FBS teams · CFBD
When each team has the ball: 2025 full season, garbage time included · compared with 2025 FBS teams · CFBD
Where they attack: 2025 full season, garbage time included, regular season only · per team, not ranked · NCAA
Featured players: 2025 full season, garbage time included · per team, not ranked · CFBD
In the trenches: 2026 roster snapshot · compared with 2026 FBS teams · CFBD
Team profiles: 2025 season to date · compared with 2025 FBS teams · CFBD
Recent games: 2025 recent games, garbage time excluded · this game · CFBD
Coaching staff: 2026 coaching staff · per team, not ranked · CFBD (head coaches, SP+) and Wikipedia (coordinators)
Head-to-head: completed meetings since 2000 · games between these two programs · CFBD

Compare these teams

Game forecast

The game in a minute

Michigan's offense leads its matchup in success rate

Penn State's offense leads its matchup in success rate

The forecast comes with a range

When each team has the ball

When Michigan has the ball

Michigan offense · 2025 season · 7 of the last 8 games · garbage time excluded

Penn State defense · 2025 season · 7 of the last 8 games · garbage time excluded

When Penn State has the ball

Penn State offense · 2025 season · 7 of the last 8 games · garbage time excluded

Michigan defense · 2025 season · 7 of the last 8 games · garbage time excluded

Where they attack.

Throwing right

Who's driving the offense?

Bryce Underwood

Jordan Marshall

Andrew Marsh

Michigan player production

Penn State player production

In the trenches

How these teams stack up

Michigan

Penn State

Recruiting

Michigan

Penn State

Season percentile profiles

Michigan

Penn State

Michigan's recent games

vs Texas · neutral site

vs Ohio State

at Maryland

The coaching staff

Michigan

Penn State

Head-to-head

Evidence and sources

Michigan's offense leads its matchup in