Saturday, October 17

Michigan

3–2

Penn State

3–3

3:30 PM ETMichigan StadiumAnn Arbor, MI

Weather

Clear54°FNW 10 mphGusts 20 mphPrecip 1%

At kickoff · 3:30 PM ET · Updated 3:49 PM ET · National Weather Service

Hour by hour

Ann Arbor · local time (ET)

Kickoff hour

Clear54°FNW 10 mphGusts 20 mphPrecip 1%

Weather is not an input to the SBR forecast.

Game forecast

54%

Michigan win probability

Penn State 46%

Michigan by 1.6

Projected margin

Margin uncertainty ±14.5 points

Published forecast · SBR sbr-2r · Model track record

The game in a minute

01 · Michigan's case

Michigan's defense leads its matchup in allowed

Michigan's defense is in the 96th percentile for success rate allowed this season. Penn State's offense is in the 35th percentile for success rate.

See the underlying numbers

02 · Penn State's answer

Penn State's defense leads its matchup in

Penn State's defense is in the 77th percentile for points allowed per game this season. Michigan's offense is in the 26th percentile for points per game.

See the underlying numbers

03 · What could swing it

The forecast comes with a range

The model gives Michigan a 54% chance to win and predicts Michigan by 1.6 points. That margin has an uncertainty of ±14.5 points.

See the forecast

When each team has the ball

Offensive efficiency meets defensive efficiency. Percentiles run from 0 to 100.

When Michigan has the ball

Michigan offense: 32nd
Penn State defense: 48th

Show the underlying numbers

Michigan offensive per play: 0.0932nd percentile · #91 nationally
Penn State PPA allowed per play: 0.0648th percentile · #64 nationally
Michigan success rate: 42%39th percentile · #84 nationally
Penn State success rate allowed: 39%58th percentile · #59 nationally
Michigan points per game: 23.026th percentile · #101 nationally
Penn State points allowed per game: 18.577th percentile · #32 nationally

PPA and success rate: CFBD, 2026 season to date, garbage time included. Points per game: 2026 games so far. Percentiles and ranks are among 2026 teams.

Michigan offense · Last 5 games · garbage time excluded

Explosiveness: 1.15
Rush success: 40.6%

Penn State defense · Last 6 games · garbage time excluded

Explosiveness allowed: 1.28
Rush success allowed: 40.5%

When Penn State has the ball

Penn State offense: 51st
Michigan defense: 96th

Show the underlying numbers

Penn State offensive PPA per play: 0.1651st percentile · #67 nationally
Michigan PPA allowed per play: −0.1196th percentile · #6 nationally
Penn State success rate: 42%35th percentile · #90 nationally
Michigan success rate allowed: 33%96th percentile · #7 nationally
Penn State points per game: 30.553rd percentile · #65 nationally
Michigan points allowed per game: 15.886th percentile · #20 nationally

PPA and success rate: CFBD, 2026 season to date, garbage time included. Points per game: 2026 games so far. Percentiles and ranks are among 2026 FBS teams.

Penn State offense · Last 6 games · garbage time excluded

Explosiveness: 1.29
Rush success: 37.4%

Michigan defense · Last 5 games · garbage time excluded

Explosiveness allowed: 1.14
Rush success allowed: 32.1%

Defense is oriented so a higher percentile is stronger.

Where they attack.

Follow the direction. Check the production.

Share of charted attemptsDirectional schematic

Offense moving upfield ↑

Select left, middle or right. The paths show direction only; alignment, routes and throw depth are schematic.

Bryce Underwood · 98% of charted pass attempts

Throwing right

Share of charted plays: 50%
Usage: charted in this direction: 45 attempts
Yards / attempt: 8.0; over 45 attempts with a result
Completion rate: 60%; over 45 attempts with a result

90 of 92 have a direction · 2 unknown, excluded · rounded

Charted 4 of 5 games

Efficiency charted in 4 of 5 games

Depth as written in the play-by-play: 72 short · 18 deep · 2 not stated

What to watch

Most charted attempts go right (50%). Middle gives the most yards per attempt: 9.8 over 17 attempts with a result.

Who's driving the offense?

The Michigan offense in 2026

Bryce Underwood

QB · 5 games

67/113 · 59% season

Passing yards: 881
Touchdowns: 5
Interceptions: 4

Last game

Minnesota · Oct 3, 2026: 10/21, 101 yds, 0 TD, 2 INT

Bryce Underwood

QB · 5 games

Carries: 57
Rushing yards: 212
Touchdowns: 2

Last game

Minnesota · Oct 3, 2026: 10 carries, 20 yds, 0 TD

Andrew Marsh

WR · 5 games

Photo: ESPN

Receptions: 25
Receiving yards: 268
Touchdown: 1

Last game

Minnesota · Oct 3, 2026: 3 rec, 29 yds, 0 TD

Michigan player tables

Who is producing

Michigan player production

2026 evidence · 5 games in this window · 5 with recorded rows in this view

Michigan — Passing production
Player
Bryce UnderwoodQB	5	67 / 113	881	7.8	5	4
Tommy CarrQB	1	2 / 2	23	11.5	1	0

2 players with recorded rows

Rows are recorded player-game box lines for the games listed above. A missing row is missing data, not proof that a player did not appear, and none of these figures describe targets, snaps, starters or availability.

Penn State player tables

Who is producing

Penn State player production

2026 evidence · 6 games in this window · 6 with recorded rows in this view

Penn State — Passing production
Player
Rocco BechtQB	6	104 / 166	1,397	8.4	11	3
Alex ManskeQB	2	9 / 14	102	7.3	0	0
Connor BarryQB	2	2 / 2	8	4.0	0	0

3 players with recorded rows

In the trenches

Michigan's line averages 307.7 lbs against Penn State's 272.9 lbs front — an edge of 34.8 lbs a man.

Typical FBS gap: 31.7 lbs.

Roster size is context. It isn't a forecast advantage.

Matchup	O-line	D-line
Michigan OLMichigan OL vs Penn State DL	307.7 lbs	272.9 lbs
Penn State OLPenn State OL vs Michigan DL	310.7 lbs	277.2 lbs

Michigan
Penn State

Average listed roster weight, 2026 · bars run from 0 to 350 lbs.

How these teams stack up

2026 season. Percentiles and ranks are among 2026 FBS teams.

Michigan

Points per game: 23.0#101 nationally · 26th percentile · 5 games
Points allowed per game: 15.8#20 nationally · 86th percentile · 5 games
Returning production: 69% of 2025 PPA returns · 84th percentile
Upperclassmen: 53% · 118 of 118 with a class year

Penn State

Points per game: 30.5#65 nationally · 53rd percentile · 6 games
Points allowed per game: 18.5#32 nationally · 77th percentile · 6 games
Returning production: 8% of 2025 PPA returns · 10th percentile
Upperclassmen: 38% · 112 of 112 with a class year

Recruiting

Michigan

2026 signing class · #12 nationally: 92nd percentile · 270.1 pts
4-year recruiting composite (Saturday Bias) · classes 2023–2026 · #12 nationally: 92nd percentile · 1.61 (0 is the FBS average)
Roster talent (CFBD Team Talent) · 2026 · #11 nationally: 93rd percentile · 890.0

Penn State

2026 signing class · #65 nationally: 53rd percentile · 194.4 pts
4-year recruiting composite (Saturday Bias) · classes 2023–2026 · #24 nationally: 83rd percentile · 0.77 (0 is the FBS average)
Roster talent (CFBD Team Talent) · 2026 · #26 nationally: 82nd percentile · 774.0

Recruited classes aren't the roster that takes the field.

Season percentile profiles

Season percentiles · outward is stronger · recruiting and experience are context, not forecast weights

Michigan: solid line, circles · Penn State: dashed line, squares

Michigan

Offense · 2026: 26.6 · 51st percentile; CFBD, 2026 season to date
Defense · SP+ 2026: 13.4 · 96th percentile; CFBD, 2026 season to date
Special teams · SP+ 2026: −0.1 · 28th percentile; CFBD, 2026 season to date
Recruiting · 2026 signing class: 270.1 pts · 92nd percentile; CFBD, 2026 signing class
Experience · returning production 2026: 69% returning · 84th percentile; CFBD, 2026 roster

Penn State

Offense · SP+ 2026: 30.0 · 68th percentile; CFBD, 2026 season to date
Defense · SP+ 2026: 20.5 · 80th percentile; CFBD, 2026 season to date
Special teams · SP+ 2026: 0.1 · 50th percentile; CFBD, 2026 season to date
Recruiting · 2026 signing class: 194.4 pts · 53rd percentile; CFBD, 2026 signing class
Experience · returning production 2026: 8% returning · 10th percentile; CFBD, 2026 roster

Michigan's recent games

Most recent completed 2026 games · play stats exclude garbage time

Oct 3 · 51 recorded plays
at Minnesota
L 14–20
37%
Success rate
−0.26
PPA / play
Sep 26 · 69 recorded plays
vs Iowa
L 19–20
45%
Success rate
0.12
PPA / play
Sep 19 · 60 recorded plays
vs UTEP
W 52–17
57%
Success rate
0.35
PPA / play

The coaching staff

Michigan

Head coach: Kyle Whittingham
First season as Michigan's head coach · career +12.5 SP+ overall
Photo: Bobak Ha'Eri, CC BY 3.0
Offensive coordinator: Jason Beck
career +29.8 SP+ offense
Photo: Ken Lund from Reno, Nevada, USA, CC BY-SA 2.0
Defensive coordinator: Jay Hill
career +22.6 SP+ defense

Penn State

Head coach: Matt Campbell
First season as Penn State's head coach · career +7.1 SP+ overall
Photo: Bobak Ha'Eri, CC BY 3.0
Offensive coordinator: Taylor Mouser
career +29.5 SP+ offense
Defensive coordinator: D'Anton Lynn
career +21.1 SP+ defense
Photo: Bobak Ha'Eri, CC BY 3.0

Head-to-head

Michigan leads 13–7 since 2000

2023 · Michigan 24, Penn State 15
Beaver Stadium
2022 · Michigan 41, Penn State 17
Michigan Stadium
2021 · Michigan 21, Penn State 17
Beaver Stadium
2020 · Penn State 27, Michigan 17
Michigan Stadium
2019 · Penn State 28, Michigan 21
Beaver Stadium
2018 · Michigan 42, Penn State 7
Michigan Stadium
2017 · Penn State 42, Michigan 13
Beaver Stadium
2016 · Michigan 49, Penn State 10
Michigan Stadium
2015 · Michigan 28, Penn State 16
Beaver Stadium
2014 · Michigan 18, Penn State 13
Michigan Stadium
2013 · Penn State 43, Michigan 40
Beaver Stadium
2010 · Penn State 41, Michigan 31
Beaver Stadium
2009 · Penn State 35, Michigan 10
Michigan Stadium
2008 · Penn State 46, Michigan 17
Beaver Stadium
2007 · Michigan 14, Penn State 9
Michigan Stadium
2006 · Michigan 17, Penn State 10
Beaver Stadium
2005 · Michigan 27, Penn State 25
Michigan Stadium
2002 · Michigan 27, Penn State 24
Michigan Stadium
2001 · Michigan 20, Penn State 0
Beaver Stadium
2000 · Michigan 33, Penn State 11

Evidence and sources

Evidence window: 2026 season to date

Michigan: 5 games
Penn State: 6 games

Forecast: 2026 game forecast · this game · Saturday Bias
Weather: 2026 game forecast · this game · NWS
The game in a minute: 2026 season to date, garbage time included · compared with 2026 FBS teams · CFBD
When each team has the ball: 2026 season to date, garbage time included · compared with 2026 FBS teams · CFBD
Where they attack: 2026 season to date, garbage time included, regular season only · per team, not ranked · NCAA
Featured players: 2026 season to date, garbage time included · per team, not ranked · CFBD
In the trenches: 2026 roster snapshot · compared with 2026 FBS teams · CFBD
Team profiles: 2026 season to date · compared with 2026 FBS teams · CFBD
Recent games: 2026 recent games, garbage time excluded · this game · CFBD
Coaching staff: 2026 coaching staff · per team, not ranked · CFBD (head coaches, SP+) and Wikipedia (coordinators)
Head-to-head: completed meetings since 2000 · games between these two programs · CFBD

Compare these teams

Game forecast

The game in a minute

Michigan's defense leads its matchup in success rate allowed

Penn State's defense leads its matchup in points allowed

The forecast comes with a range

When each team has the ball

When Michigan has the ball

Michigan offense · Last 5 games · garbage time excluded

Penn State defense · Last 6 games · garbage time excluded

When Penn State has the ball

Penn State offense · Last 6 games · garbage time excluded

Michigan defense · Last 5 games · garbage time excluded

Where they attack.

Throwing right

Who's driving the offense?

Bryce Underwood

Bryce Underwood

Andrew Marsh

Michigan player production

Penn State player production

In the trenches

How these teams stack up

Michigan

Penn State

Recruiting

Michigan

Penn State

Season percentile profiles

Michigan

Penn State

Michigan's recent games

at Minnesota

vs Iowa

vs UTEP

The coaching staff

Michigan

Penn State

Head-to-head

Evidence and sources

Michigan's defense leads its matchup in allowed

Penn State's defense leads its matchup in