2026 Michigan vs 2026 Penn State
Hypothetical
53% to win
High confidence — 5 games in — see our accuracy
Hypothetical forecast · SBR sbr-2r
Why this number
How they're built
0–100 percentile · higher is stronger
Compare the whole profile, then explore each dimension.
- 2026 Michigan Offense · SP+ 2026: 26.6, 51st percentile (2026 season to date)
- 2026 Penn State Offense · SP+ 2026: 30.0, 68th percentile (2026 season to date)
- 2026 Michigan Defense · SP+ 2026: 13.4, 96th percentile (2026 season to date)
- 2026 Penn State Defense · SP+ 2026: 20.5, 80th percentile (2026 season to date)
- 2026 Michigan Special teams · SP+ 2026: −0.1, 28th percentile (2026 season to date)
- 2026 Penn State Special teams · SP+ 2026: 0.1, 50th percentile (2026 season to date)
- 2026 Michigan Recruiting · 2026 signing class: 270.1 pts, 92nd percentile (2026 signing class)
- 2026 Penn State Recruiting · 2026 signing class: 194.4 pts, 53rd percentile (2026 signing class)
- 2026 Michigan Experience · returning production 2026: 69% returning, 84th percentile (2026 roster)
- 2026 Penn State Experience · returning production 2026: 8% returning, 10th percentile (2026 roster)
Offensive production relative to that season’s field. Compare an offense with the opposing defense in the scouting report.
Recruiting and experience add context; the five axes aren't equal weights in the forecast.
The numbers behind the profiles
| Measure | 2026 Michigan | 2026 Penn State |
|---|---|---|
| Offensive / play | 0.0932nd percentile | 0.1651st percentile |
| PPA allowed / play | −0.1196th percentile | 0.0648th percentile |
| Points per game | 23.026th percentile5 games | 30.553rd percentile6 games |
| per game | 15.886th percentile5 games | 18.577th percentile6 games |
Programs don't stand still
SP+ percentile among FBS teams, by season. The marked point is each compared season.
Momentum
Talent in, results out
Recruiting-class percentile feeding each roster, compared with its SP+ result.
- Average signing-class percentile, classes 2023–2026
- 91st percentile
- SP+ percentile, 2026
- 84th percentile
- Average signing-class percentile, classes 2023–2026
- 81st percentile
- SP+ percentile, 2026
- 73rd percentile
Campus distance
320 miles apart
There's more to the matchup.
Supporting context, ready when you want it.
In the trenches · both directions
| Matchup | O-line | D-line |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 Michigan OL vs 2026 Penn State DL | 307.7 lbs | 272.9 lbs |
| 2026 Penn State OL vs 2026 Michigan DL | 310.7 lbs | 277.2 lbs |
2026 Michigan line yards 3.16 · 2026 Penn State stuff rate 21.5%
2026 Penn State line yards 2.77 · 2026 Michigan stuff rate 22.4%
Fans swear big lines win games. They're half right — big-line teams do win more, but only because good programs recruit big linemen. Once we account for talent and last season, line size adds nothing to the prediction. Across 11 seasons, no measurable effect on margin.
Roster size is context. It isn't a forecast advantage.
Backtested effect: 0.42 pts at 1σ.
Head-to-head · Michigan leads 13–7 since 2000
Michigan has won 3 straight
| Season | Score | Venue |
|---|---|---|
| 2023 | Michigan 24–15 Penn State | Beaver Stadium · Penn State home |
| 2022 | Michigan 41–17 Penn State | Michigan Stadium · Michigan home |
| 2021 | Michigan 21–17 Penn State | Beaver Stadium · Penn State home |
| 2020 | Michigan 17–27 Penn State | Michigan Stadium · Michigan home |
| 2019 | Michigan 21–28 Penn State | Beaver Stadium · Penn State home |
| 2018 | Michigan 42–7 Penn State | Michigan Stadium · Michigan home |
| 2017 | Michigan 13–42 Penn State | Beaver Stadium · Penn State home |
| 2016 | Michigan 49–10 Penn State | Michigan Stadium · Michigan home |
| 2015 | Michigan 28–16 Penn State | Beaver Stadium · Penn State home |
| 2014 | Michigan 18–13 Penn State | Michigan Stadium · Michigan home |
| 2013 | Michigan 40–43 Penn State | Beaver Stadium · Penn State home |
| 2010 | Michigan 31–41 Penn State | Beaver Stadium · Penn State home |
| 2009 | Michigan 10–35 Penn State | Michigan Stadium · Michigan home |
| 2008 | Michigan 17–46 Penn State | Beaver Stadium · Penn State home |
| 2007 | Michigan 14–9 Penn State | Michigan Stadium · Michigan home |
| 2006 | Michigan 17–10 Penn State | Beaver Stadium · Penn State home |
| 2005 | Michigan 27–25 Penn State | Michigan Stadium · Michigan home |
| 2002 | Michigan 27–24 Penn State | Michigan Stadium · Michigan home |
| 2001 | Michigan 20–0 Penn State | Beaver Stadium · Penn State home |
| 2000 | Michigan 33–11 Penn State | Michigan home |
Coaching & program context
HC
- Kyle Whittingham (First season as Michigan's head coach)
OC
- Jason Beck
career average +29.8 SP+ offense
Scheme: Power spread (listed on Wikipedia)
Style: Run-heavy, grind-it-out (threw on 40% of its run–pass plays, 20th percentile of 2026 FBS; 59.4 plays a game, 6th percentile)
DC
- Jay Hill
career average +22.6 SP+ defense
Scheme: 4–2–5 (listed on Wikipedia)
HC
- Matt Campbell (First season as Penn State's head coach)
OC
- Taylor Mouser
career average +29.5 SP+ offense
Scheme: Pro spread (listed on Wikipedia)
Style: Balanced, average pace (threw on 47% of its run–pass plays, 50th percentile of 2026 FBS; 67.5 plays a game, 51st percentile)
DC
- D'Anton Lynn
career average +21.1 SP+ defense
Scheme: 4–3 (listed on Wikipedia)
A new coordinator feels like it should swing a game. Across 11 seasons, the change doesn't move the final margin beyond what the roster already tells us. Shown as context, not a factor in our number.
Run-heavy team meets a defense that can't stop the run — feels like extra points waiting. Across 7 seasons the matchup adds nothing beyond what the two ratings already say; if anything the point estimate leans the other way.
Watching the next one?
Penn State at Michigan · October 17, 2026
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