Saturday, October 17

Miami

5–0 · AP #3

Florida State

3–3

7:00 PM ETHard Rock StadiumMiami Gardens, FL

Weather

Chance of thunderstorms82°FNE 13 mphGusts 20 mphPrecip 70%

At kickoff · 7:00 PM ET · Updated 2:31 PM ET · National Weather Service

Hour by hour

Miami Gardens · local time (ET)

Kickoff hour

Chance of thunderstorms82°FNE 13 mphGusts 20 mphPrecip 70%

Weather is not an input to the SBR forecast.

Game forecast

93%

Miami win probability

Florida State 7%

Miami by 20.8

Projected margin

Margin uncertainty ±13.9 points

Published forecast · SBR sbr-2r · Model track record

The game in a minute

01 · Miami's case

Miami's offense leads its matchup in per-play efficiency

Miami's offense is in the 100th percentile for per play this season. Florida State's defense is in the 20th percentile for PPA allowed.

See when each team has the ball

02 · Florida State's answer

Florida State has no clear answer on this matchup

None of its defense's numbers stands out against Miami's offense.

03 · What could swing it

Chance of precipitation at kickoff

The National Weather Service gives a 70% chance of precipitation at kickoff.

See the weather

When each team has the ball

Offensive efficiency meets defensive efficiency. Percentiles run from 0 to 100.

When Miami has the ball

Miami offense: 100th
Florida State defense: 20th

Show the underlying numbers

Miami offensive PPA per play: 0.42100th percentile · #1 nationally
Florida State PPA allowed per play: 0.1620th percentile · #109 nationally
Miami: 56%100th percentile · #1 nationally
Florida State success rate allowed: 42%36th percentile · #88 nationally
Miami points per game: 49.6100th percentile · #1 nationally
Florida State per game: 25.340th percentile · #83 nationally

PPA and success rate: CFBD, 2026 season to date, garbage time included. Points per game: 2026 games so far. Percentiles and ranks are among 2026 teams.

Miami offense · Last 5 games · garbage time excluded

Explosiveness: 1.24
Rush success: 54.0%

Florida State defense · 5 of the last 6 games · garbage time excluded

Explosiveness allowed: 1.35
Rush success allowed: 47.3%

When Florida State has the ball

Florida State offense: 71st
Miami defense: 85th

Show the underlying numbers

Florida State offensive PPA per play: 0.2271st percentile · #38 nationally
Miami PPA allowed per play: −0.0685th percentile · #16 nationally
Florida State success rate: 45%58th percentile · #57 nationally
Miami success rate allowed: 34%88th percentile · #17 nationally
Florida State points per game: 31.055th percentile · #62 nationally
Miami points allowed per game: 9.8100th percentile · #1 nationally

PPA and success rate: CFBD, 2026 season to date, garbage time included. Points per game: 2026 games so far. Percentiles and ranks are among 2026 FBS teams.

Florida State offense · Last 6 games · garbage time excluded

Explosiveness: 1.41
Rush success: 48.5%

Miami defense · 4 of the last 5 games · garbage time excluded

Explosiveness allowed: 1.25
Rush success allowed: 29.9%

Defense is oriented so a higher percentile is stronger.

Where they attack.

Follow the direction. Check the production.

Share of charted attemptsDirectional schematic

Offense moving upfield ↑

Select left, middle or right. The paths show direction only; alignment, routes and throw depth are schematic.

Darian Mensah · 80% of charted pass attempts

Throwing left

Share of charted plays: 42%
Usage: charted in this direction: 44 attempts
Yards / attempt: 12.5; over 44 attempts with a result
Completion rate: 93%; over 44 attempts with a result

106 of 106 have a direction · 0 unknown, excluded · rounded

Charted 4 of 5 games

Efficiency charted in 4 of 5 games

Depth as written in the play-by-play: 93 short · 13 deep · 0 not stated

Who's driving the offense?

The Miami offense in 2026

Darian Mensah

QB · 5 games

Photo: ESPN

112/133 · 84% season

Passing yards: 1,438
Touchdowns: 15
Interceptions: 0

Last game

Clemson · Oct 3, 2026: 18/27, 227 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT

Mark Fletcher Jr.

RB · 4 games

Photo: ESPN

Carries: 52
Rushing yards: 307
Touchdowns: 5

Last game

Clemson · Oct 3, 2026: 16 carries, 77 yds, 2 TD

Malachi Toney

WR · 5 games

Photo: ESPN

Receptions: 39
Receiving yards: 604
Touchdowns: 6

Last game

Clemson · Oct 3, 2026: 5 rec, 40 yds, 0 TD

Miami player tables

Who is producing

Miami player production

2026 evidence · 5 games in this window · 5 with recorded rows in this view

Miami — Passing production
Player
Darian MensahQB	5	112 / 133	1,438	10.8	15	0
Luke NickelQB	3	15 / 20	204	10.2	3	1
Dereon ColemanQB	1	5 / 6	30	5.0	0	0

3 players with recorded rows

Rows are recorded player-game box lines for the games listed above. A missing row is missing data, not proof that a player did not appear, and none of these figures describe targets, snaps, starters or availability.

Florida State player tables

Who is producing

Florida State player production

2026 evidence · 6 games in this window · 6 with recorded rows in this view

Florida State — Passing production
Player
Ashton DanielsQB	6	91 / 153	1,320	8.6	8	7
Kevin SperryQB	2	2 / 3	14	4.7	0	0

2 players with recorded rows

In the trenches

Miami's line averages 318.7 lbs against Florida State's 269.2 lbs front — an edge of 49.5 lbs a man.

Typical FBS gap: 31.7 lbs.

Roster size is context. It isn't a forecast advantage.

Matchup	O-line	D-line
Miami OLMiami OL vs Florida State DL	318.7 lbs	269.2 lbs
Florida State OLFlorida State OL vs Miami DL	318.3 lbs	263.5 lbs

Miami
Florida State

Average listed roster weight, 2026 · bars run from 0 to 350 lbs.

How these teams stack up

2026 season. Percentiles and ranks are among 2026 FBS teams.

Miami

Points per game: 49.6#1 nationally · 100th percentile · 5 games
Points allowed per game: 9.8#1 nationally · 100th percentile · 5 games
Returning production: 37% of 2025 PPA returns · 45th percentile
Upperclassmen: 40% · 118 of 118 with a class year

Florida State

Points per game: 31.0#62 nationally · 55th percentile · 6 games
Points allowed per game: 25.3#83 nationally · 40th percentile · 6 games
Returning production: 40% of 2025 PPA returns · 52nd percentile
Upperclassmen: 37% · 109 of 109 with a class year

Recruiting

Miami

2026 signing class · #9 nationally: 94th percentile · 284.6 pts
4-year recruiting composite (Saturday Bias) · classes 2023–2026 · #9 nationally: 94th percentile · 1.76 (0 is the FBS average)
Roster talent (CFBD Team Talent) · 2026 · #12 nationally: 92nd percentile · 885.9

Florida State

2026 signing class · #16 nationally: 89th percentile · 251.5 pts
4-year recruiting composite (Saturday Bias) · classes 2023–2026 · #15 nationally: 90th percentile · 1.23 (0 is the FBS average)
Roster talent (CFBD Team Talent) · 2026 · #21 nationally: 85th percentile · 800.2

Recruited classes aren't the roster that takes the field.

Season percentile profiles

Season percentiles · outward is stronger · recruiting and experience are context, not forecast weights

Miami: solid line, circles · Florida State: dashed line, squares

Miami

Offense · 2026: 40.6 · 99th percentile; CFBD, 2026 season to date
Defense · SP+ 2026: 13.1 · 97th percentile; CFBD, 2026 season to date
Special teams · SP+ 2026: 0.3 · 80th percentile; CFBD, 2026 season to date
Recruiting · 2026 signing class: 284.6 pts · 94th percentile; CFBD, 2026 signing class
Experience · returning production 2026: 37% returning · 45th percentile; CFBD, 2026 roster

Florida State

Offense · SP+ 2026: 32.2 · 75th percentile; CFBD, 2026 season to date
Defense · SP+ 2026: 26.6 · 44th percentile; CFBD, 2026 season to date
Special teams · SP+ 2026: 0.2 · 69th percentile; CFBD, 2026 season to date
Recruiting · 2026 signing class: 251.5 pts · 89th percentile; CFBD, 2026 signing class
Experience · returning production 2026: 40% returning · 52nd percentile; CFBD, 2026 roster

Miami's recent games

Most recent completed 2026 games · play stats exclude garbage time

Oct 3 · 64 recorded plays
at Clemson
W 41–13
52%
Success rate
0.33
PPA / play
Sep 26 · 39 recorded plays
vs Central Michigan
W 52–3
64%
Success rate
0.66
PPA / play
Sep 18 · 68 recorded plays
at Wake Forest
W 33–20
44%
Success rate
0.25
PPA / play

The coaching staff

Miami

Head coach: Mario Cristobal
career −0.7 SP+ overall
Photo: Bobak Ha'Eri, CC BY 3.0
Offensive coordinator: Shannon Dawson
career +30.8 SP+ offense
Photo: Bobak Ha'Eri, CC BY 3.0
Defensive coordinator: Corey Hetherman
career +14.9 SP+ defense
Photo: Bobak Ha'Eri, CC BY 3.0

Florida State

Head coach: Mike Norvell
career +8.2 SP+ overall
Photo: Nolester, CC BY-SA 4.0
Offensive coordinator: Tim Harris Jr.
career +29.3 SP+ offense
Defensive coordinator: Tony White
career +21.8 SP+ defense

Head-to-head

Miami leads 14–13 since 2000

2025 · Miami 28, Florida State 22
Doak Campbell Stadium
2024 · Miami 36, Florida State 14
Hard Rock Stadium
2023 · Florida State 27, Miami 20
Doak Campbell Stadium
2022 · Florida State 45, Miami 3
Hard Rock Stadium
2021 · Florida State 31, Miami 28
Doak Campbell Stadium
2020 · Miami 52, Florida State 10
Hard Rock Stadium
2019 · Miami 27, Florida State 10
Doak Campbell Stadium
2018 · Miami 28, Florida State 27
Hard Rock Stadium
2017 · Miami 24, Florida State 20
Doak Campbell Stadium
2016 · Florida State 20, Miami 19
Hard Rock Stadium
2015 · Florida State 29, Miami 24
Doak Campbell Stadium
2014 · Florida State 30, Miami 26
Hard Rock Stadium
2013 · Florida State 41, Miami 14
Doak Campbell Stadium
2012 · Florida State 33, Miami 20
Hard Rock Stadium
2011 · Florida State 23, Miami 19
Doak Campbell Stadium
2010 · Florida State 45, Miami 17
Hard Rock Stadium
2009 · Miami 38, Florida State 34
Doak Campbell Stadium
2008 · Florida State 41, Miami 39
Hard Rock Stadium
2007 · Miami 37, Florida State 29
Doak Campbell Stadium
2006 · Florida State 13, Miami 10
2005 · Florida State 10, Miami 7
Doak Campbell Stadium
2004 · Miami 16, Florida State 10
2003 · Miami 16, Florida State 14
Neutral site · Alfond Stadium
2003 · Miami 22, Florida State 14
Doak Campbell Stadium
2002 · Miami 28, Florida State 27
2001 · Miami 49, Florida State 27
Doak Campbell Stadium
2000 · Miami 27, Florida State 24

Evidence and sources

Evidence window: 2026 season to date

Miami: 5 games
Florida State: 6 games

Forecast: 2026 game forecast · this game · Saturday Bias
Weather: 2026 game forecast · this game · NWS
The game in a minute: 2026 season to date, garbage time included · compared with 2026 FBS teams · CFBD
When each team has the ball: 2026 season to date, garbage time included · compared with 2026 FBS teams · CFBD
Where they attack: 2026 season to date, garbage time included, regular season only · per team, not ranked · NCAA
Featured players: 2026 season to date, garbage time included · per team, not ranked · CFBD
In the trenches: 2026 roster snapshot · compared with 2026 FBS teams · CFBD
Team profiles: 2026 season to date · compared with 2026 FBS teams · CFBD
Recent games: 2026 recent games, garbage time excluded · this game · CFBD
Coaching staff: 2026 coaching staff · per team, not ranked · CFBD (head coaches, SP+) and Wikipedia (coordinators)
Head-to-head: completed meetings since 2000 · games between these two programs · CFBD

Compare these teams

Game forecast

The game in a minute

Miami's offense leads its matchup in per-play efficiency

Florida State has no clear answer on this matchup

Chance of precipitation at kickoff

When each team has the ball

When Miami has the ball

Miami offense · Last 5 games · garbage time excluded

Florida State defense · 5 of the last 6 games · garbage time excluded

When Florida State has the ball

Florida State offense · Last 6 games · garbage time excluded

Miami defense · 4 of the last 5 games · garbage time excluded

Where they attack.

Throwing left

Who's driving the offense?

Darian Mensah

Mark Fletcher Jr.

Malachi Toney

Miami player production

Florida State player production

In the trenches

How these teams stack up

Miami

Florida State

Recruiting

Miami

Florida State

Season percentile profiles

Miami

Florida State

Miami's recent games

at Clemson

vs Central Michigan

at Wake Forest

The coaching staff

Miami

Florida State

Head-to-head

Evidence and sources