2026 Miami vs 2026 Florida State
Hypothetical
91% to win
High confidence — 4 games in — see our accuracy
Hypothetical forecast · SBR sbr-2r
Why this number
How they're built
0–100 percentile · higher is stronger
Compare the whole profile, then explore each dimension.
- 2026 Miami Offense · SP+ 2026: 40.6, 99th percentile (2026 season to date)
- 2026 Florida State Offense · SP+ 2026: 32.2, 75th percentile (2026 season to date)
- 2026 Miami Defense · SP+ 2026: 13.1, 97th percentile (2026 season to date)
- 2026 Florida State Defense · SP+ 2026: 26.6, 44th percentile (2026 season to date)
- 2026 Miami Special teams · SP+ 2026: 0.3, 80th percentile (2026 season to date)
- 2026 Florida State Special teams · SP+ 2026: 0.2, 69th percentile (2026 season to date)
- 2026 Miami Recruiting · 2026 signing class: 284.6 pts, 94th percentile (2026 signing class)
- 2026 Florida State Recruiting · 2026 signing class: 251.5 pts, 89th percentile (2026 signing class)
- 2026 Miami Experience · returning production 2026: 37% returning, 45th percentile (2026 roster)
- 2026 Florida State Experience · returning production 2026: 40% returning, 52nd percentile (2026 roster)
Offensive production relative to that season’s field. Compare an offense with the opposing defense in the scouting report.
Recruiting and experience add context; the five axes aren't equal weights in the forecast.
The numbers behind the profiles
| Measure | 2026 Miami | 2026 Florida State |
|---|---|---|
| Offensive / play | 0.42100th percentile | 0.2271st percentile |
| PPA allowed / play | −0.0685th percentile | 0.1620th percentile |
| Points per game | 49.6100th percentile5 games | 31.055th percentile6 games |
| per game | 9.8100th percentile5 games | 25.340th percentile6 games |
Programs don't stand still
SP+ percentile among FBS teams, by season. The marked point is each compared season.
Momentum
Talent in, results out
Recruiting-class percentile feeding each roster, compared with its SP+ result.
- Average signing-class percentile, classes 2023–2026
- 95th percentile
- SP+ percentile, 2026
- 98th percentile
- Average signing-class percentile, classes 2023–2026
- 88th percentile
- SP+ percentile, 2026
- 61st percentile
Campus distance
395 miles apart
There's more to the matchup.
Supporting context, ready when you want it.
In the trenches · both directions
| Matchup | O-line | D-line |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 Miami OL vs 2026 Florida State DL | 318.7 lbs | 269.2 lbs |
| 2026 Florida State OL vs 2026 Miami DL | 318.3 lbs | 263.5 lbs |
2026 Miami line yards 3.89 · 2026 Florida State stuff rate 19.1%
2026 Florida State line yards 3.45 · 2026 Miami stuff rate 24.5%
Fans swear big lines win games. They're half right — big-line teams do win more, but only because good programs recruit big linemen. Once we account for talent and last season, line size adds nothing to the prediction. Across 11 seasons, no measurable effect on margin.
Roster size is context. It isn't a forecast advantage.
Backtested effect: 0.42 pts at 1σ.
Head-to-head · Miami leads 14–13 since 2000
Miami has won 2 straight
| Season | Score | Venue |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 | Miami 28–22 Florida State | Doak Campbell Stadium · Florida State home |
| 2024 | Miami 36–14 Florida State | Hard Rock Stadium · Miami home |
| 2023 | Miami 20–27 Florida State | Doak Campbell Stadium · Florida State home |
| 2022 | Miami 3–45 Florida State | Hard Rock Stadium · Miami home |
| 2021 | Miami 28–31 Florida State | Doak Campbell Stadium · Florida State home |
| 2020 | Miami 52–10 Florida State | Hard Rock Stadium · Miami home |
| 2019 | Miami 27–10 Florida State | Doak Campbell Stadium · Florida State home |
| 2018 | Miami 28–27 Florida State | Hard Rock Stadium · Miami home |
| 2017 | Miami 24–20 Florida State | Doak Campbell Stadium · Florida State home |
| 2016 | Miami 19–20 Florida State | Hard Rock Stadium · Miami home |
| 2015 | Miami 24–29 Florida State | Doak Campbell Stadium · Florida State home |
| 2014 | Miami 26–30 Florida State | Hard Rock Stadium · Miami home |
| 2013 | Miami 14–41 Florida State | Doak Campbell Stadium · Florida State home |
| 2012 | Miami 20–33 Florida State | Hard Rock Stadium · Miami home |
| 2011 | Miami 19–23 Florida State | Doak Campbell Stadium · Florida State home |
| 2010 | Miami 17–45 Florida State | Hard Rock Stadium · Miami home |
| 2009 | Miami 38–34 Florida State | Doak Campbell Stadium · Florida State home |
| 2008 | Miami 39–41 Florida State | Hard Rock Stadium · Miami home |
| 2007 | Miami 37–29 Florida State | Doak Campbell Stadium · Florida State home |
| 2006 | Miami 10–13 Florida State | Miami home |
| 2005 | Miami 7–10 Florida State | Doak Campbell Stadium · Florida State home |
| 2004 | Miami 16–10 Florida State | Miami home |
| 2003bowl/playoff | Miami 16–14 Florida State | Neutral site |
| 2003 | Miami 22–14 Florida State | Doak Campbell Stadium · Florida State home |
| 2002 | Miami 28–27 Florida State | Miami home |
| 2001 | Miami 49–27 Florida State | Doak Campbell Stadium · Florida State home |
| 2000 | Miami 27–24 Florida State | Miami home |
Coaching & program context
HC
- Mario Cristobal
OC
- Shannon Dawson
career average +30.8 SP+ offense
Scheme: Air raid (listed on Wikipedia)
Style: Balanced, average pace (threw on 47% of its run–pass plays, 56th percentile of 2026 FBS; 68.8 plays a game, 63rd percentile)
DC
- Corey Hetherman
career average +14.9 SP+ defense
Scheme: 4–2–5 (listed on Wikipedia)
HC
- Mike Norvell
OC
- Tim Harris Jr.
career average +29.3 SP+ offense
Scheme: Spread option (listed on Wikipedia)
Style: Run-heavy, average pace (threw on 40% of its run–pass plays, 21st percentile of 2026 FBS; 65.3 plays a game, 34th percentile)
DC
- Tony White
career average +21.8 SP+ defense
Scheme: 3–3–5 (listed on Wikipedia)
A new coordinator feels like it should swing a game. Across 11 seasons, the change doesn't move the final margin beyond what the roster already tells us. Shown as context, not a factor in our number.
Run-heavy team meets a defense that can't stop the run — feels like extra points waiting. Across 7 seasons the matchup adds nothing beyond what the two ratings already say; if anything the point estimate leans the other way.
Watching the next one?
Florida State at Miami · October 17, 2026
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