Saturday, October 17
Compare these teams
5–0 · AP #10
vs
Arizona State
3–2
3:30 PM ET2:30 PM CTJones AT&T StadiumLubbock, TX
Partly cloudy58°FE 2 mphGusts 6 mphPrecip 7%
At kickoff · 2:30 PM CT · Updated 3:15 PM CT · National Weather Service
Lubbock · local time (CT)
Kickoff hour
Partly cloudy58°FE 2 mphGusts 6 mphPrecip 7%
Weather is not an input to the SBR forecast.
Evidence sections show 2025 background.
93%
Texas Tech win probability
Arizona State 7%
Texas Tech by 20.6
Projected margin
Margin uncertainty ±14.0 points
Published forecast · SBR sbr-2r · Model track record
01 · Texas Tech's case
Texas Tech's defense was in the 99th percentile for success rate allowed last season. Arizona State's offense was in the 24th percentile for success rate.
See the underlying numbers02 · Arizona State's answer
None of its offense's numbers stood out against Texas Tech's defense last season.
03 · What could swing it
Texas Tech's leading passer threw 64% of the team's charted attempts last season.
See where they attackOffensive efficiency meets defensive efficiency. Percentiles run from 0 to 100.
PPA and success rate: CFBD, 2025 full season, garbage time included. Points per game: every 2025 game. Percentiles and ranks are among 2025 teams.
PPA and success rate: CFBD, 2025 full season, garbage time included. Points per game: every 2025 game. Percentiles and ranks are among 2025 FBS teams.
Defense is oriented so a higher percentile is stronger.
Follow the direction. Check the production.
Offense moving upfield ↑
Behren Morton · 64% of charted pass attempts
264 of 267 have a direction · 3 unknown, excluded · rounded
Charted 12 of 13 games
Efficiency charted in 12 of 13 games
Depth as written in the play-by-play: 232 short · 32 deep · 3 not stated
The Texas Tech offense in 2025
QB · 12 games
219/333 · 66% season
Last game
Oregon · Jan 1, 2026: 18/32, 137 yds, 0 TD, 2 INT
RB · 14 games
Last game
Oregon · Jan 1, 2026: 11 carries, 29 yds, 0 TD
WR · 14 games
Last game
Oregon · Jan 1, 2026: 2 rec, 29 yds, 0 TD
Who is producing
2025 evidence · 14 games in this window · 14 with recorded rows in this view
Sorted by Completions and attempts, highest first
| Player | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Behren MortonQB | 12 | 219 / 333 | 2,780 | 8.3 | 22 | 6 |
| Will HammondQB | 7 | 68 / 108 | 668 | 6.2 | 7 | 3 |
| Mitch GriffisQB | 5 | 26 / 36 | 357 | 9.9 | 2 | 0 |
| Lloyd Jones IIIQB | 1 | 4 / 5 | 74 | 14.8 | 2 | 0 |
| Holden PhillipsQB | 1 | 1 / 1 | 8 | 8.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jacob RodriguezLB | 1 | 0 / 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
6 players with recorded rows
Rows are recorded player-game box lines for the games listed above. A missing row is missing data, not proof that a player did not appear, and none of these figures describe targets, snaps, starters or availability.
Who is producing
2025 evidence · 13 games in this window · 13 with recorded rows in this view
Sorted by Completions and attempts, highest first
| Player | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sam LeavittQB | 7 | 145 / 239 | 1,628 | 6.8 | 10 | 3 |
| Jeff SimsQB | 7 | 105 / 188 | 1,261 | 6.7 | 10 | 6 |
| Jordyn TysonWR | 1 | 0 / 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Kanyon FloydP | 1 | 1 / 1 | 19 | 19.0 | 0 | 0 |
4 players with recorded rows
Rows are recorded player-game box lines for the games listed above. A missing row is missing data, not proof that a player did not appear, and none of these figures describe targets, snaps, starters or availability.
Texas Tech's line averages 304.5 lbs against Arizona State's 279.4 lbs front — an edge of 25.1 lbs a man.
Typical FBS gap: 31.7 lbs.
Roster size is context. It isn't a forecast advantage.
| Matchup | O-line | D-line |
|---|---|---|
| Texas Tech OLTexas Tech OL vs Arizona State DL | 304.5 lbs | 279.4 lbs |
| Arizona State OLArizona State OL vs Texas Tech DL | 316.7 lbs | 310.6 lbs |
Average listed roster weight, 2026 · bars run from 0 to 350 lbs.
2025 season. Percentiles and ranks are among 2025 FBS teams.
Recruited classes aren't the roster that takes the field.
Season percentiles · outward is stronger · recruiting and experience are context, not forecast weights
Texas Tech: solid line, circles · Arizona State: dashed line, squares
Most recent completed 2025 games · play stats exclude garbage time
Jan 1
L 0–23
Play stats pending
Dec 6 · 66 recorded plays
W 34–7
36%
Success rate
0.10
PPA / play
Nov 29 · 63 recorded plays
W 49–0
46%
Success rate
0.33
PPA / play
Mack Leftwich
career +34.9 SP+ offense
Rob Greene
Co-defensive coordinator · career +19.2 SP+ defense
Shiel Wood
career +19.2 SP+ defense
Kenny Dillingham
career +0.7 SP+ overall
Photo: George Wrighster's College Football Podcast, CC BY 4.0
Marcus Arroyo
career +27.1 SP+ offense
Brian Ward
career +26.1 SP+ defense
2025 · Arizona State 26, Texas Tech 22
Mountain America Stadium
2024 · Texas Tech 30, Arizona State 22
Jones AT&T Stadium
2017 · Texas Tech 52, Arizona State 45
Jones AT&T Stadium
2016 · Arizona State 68, Texas Tech 55
Mountain America Stadium
2013 · Texas Tech 37, Arizona State 23
Neutral site · Qualcomm Stadium
Evidence window: 2025 full season