2026 Texas Tech vs 2026 Arizona State
Hypothetical
90% to win
High confidence — 4 games in — see our accuracy
Hypothetical forecast · SBR sbr-2r
Why this number
How they're built
0–100 percentile · higher is stronger
Compare the whole profile, then explore each dimension.
- 2026 Texas Tech Offense · SP+ 2026: 36.7, 91st percentile (2026 season to date)
- 2026 Arizona State Offense · SP+ 2026: 27.0, 53rd percentile (2026 season to date)
- 2026 Texas Tech Defense · SP+ 2026: 15.4, 92nd percentile (2026 season to date)
- 2026 Arizona State Defense · SP+ 2026: 23.2, 66th percentile (2026 season to date)
- 2026 Texas Tech Special teams · SP+ 2026: 0.3, 80th percentile (2026 season to date)
- 2026 Arizona State Special teams · SP+ 2026: −0.2, 20th percentile (2026 season to date)
- 2026 Texas Tech Recruiting · 2026 signing class: 250.3 pts, 88th percentile (2026 signing class)
- 2026 Arizona State Recruiting · 2026 signing class: 217.3 pts, 72nd percentile (2026 signing class)
- 2026 Texas Tech Experience · returning production 2026: 53% returning, 61st percentile (2026 roster)
- 2026 Arizona State Experience · returning production 2026: 16% returning, 22nd percentile (2026 roster)
Offensive production relative to that season’s field. Compare an offense with the opposing defense in the scouting report.
Recruiting and experience add context; the five axes aren't equal weights in the forecast.
The numbers behind the profiles
| Measure | 2026 Texas Tech | 2026 Arizona State |
|---|---|---|
| Offensive / play | 0.1962nd percentile | 0.0727th percentile |
| PPA allowed / play | −0.0685th percentile | 0.0936th percentile |
| Points per game | 34.869th percentile5 games | 32.661st percentile5 games |
| per game | 16.284th percentile5 games | 27.823rd percentile5 games |
Programs don't stand still
SP+ percentile among FBS teams, by season. The marked point is each compared season.
Momentum
Talent in, results out
Recruiting-class percentile feeding each roster, compared with its SP+ result.
- Average signing-class percentile, classes 2023–2026
- 79th percentile
- SP+ percentile, 2026
- 93rd percentile
- Average signing-class percentile, classes 2023–2026
- 68th percentile
- SP+ percentile, 2026
- 58th percentile
Campus distance
580 miles apart
There's more to the matchup.
Supporting context, ready when you want it.
In the trenches · both directions
| Matchup | O-line | D-line |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 Texas Tech OL vs 2026 Arizona State DL | 304.5 lbs | 279.4 lbs |
| 2026 Arizona State OL vs 2026 Texas Tech DL | 316.7 lbs | 310.6 lbs |
2026 Texas Tech line yards 3.14 · 2026 Arizona State stuff rate 15.0%
2026 Arizona State line yards 3.02 · 2026 Texas Tech stuff rate 20.9%
Fans swear big lines win games. They're half right — big-line teams do win more, but only because good programs recruit big linemen. Once we account for talent and last season, line size adds nothing to the prediction. Across 11 seasons, no measurable effect on margin.
Roster size is context. It isn't a forecast advantage.
Backtested effect: 0.42 pts at 1σ.
Head-to-head · Texas Tech leads 3–2 since 2000
Arizona State has won 1 straight
| Season | Score | Venue |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 | Texas Tech 22–26 Arizona State | Mountain America Stadium · Arizona State home |
| 2024 | Texas Tech 30–22 Arizona State | Jones AT&T Stadium · Texas Tech home |
| 2017 | Texas Tech 52–45 Arizona State | Jones AT&T Stadium · Texas Tech home |
| 2016 | Texas Tech 55–68 Arizona State | Mountain America Stadium · Arizona State home |
| 2013bowl/playoff | Texas Tech 37–23 Arizona State | Neutral site |
Coaching & program context
HC
- Joey McGuire
OC
- Mack Leftwich
career average +34.9 SP+ offense
Scheme: Run and gun (listed on Wikipedia)
Style: Balanced, average pace (threw on 44% of its run–pass plays, 36th percentile of 2026 FBS; 68.2 plays a game, 58th percentile)
DC
- Rob Greene (co-DC)
- Shiel Wood
career average +19.2 SP+ defense
Scheme: Multiple 3–4 (listed on Wikipedia)
HC
- Kenny Dillingham
OC
- Marcus Arroyo
career average +27.1 SP+ offense
Scheme: Pistol (listed on Wikipedia)
Style: Pass-heavy, average pace (threw on 50% of its run–pass plays, 79th percentile of 2026 FBS; 67.4 plays a game, 50th percentile)
DC
- Brian Ward
career average +26.1 SP+ defense
Scheme: 4–2–5 (listed on Wikipedia)
A new coordinator feels like it should swing a game. Across 11 seasons, the change doesn't move the final margin beyond what the roster already tells us. Shown as context, not a factor in our number.
Run-heavy team meets a defense that can't stop the run — feels like extra points waiting. Across 7 seasons the matchup adds nothing beyond what the two ratings already say; if anything the point estimate leans the other way.
Watching the next one?
Arizona State at Texas Tech · October 17, 2026
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